Singlehurst: Baillie Gifford wouldn't buy OpenAI, Grok, or Anthropic currently
“I think at the moment I would say that I would buy none of them. And it's not because I have a particular, and it's not because I'm critical of those businesses. It's because I don't know what the answer is to enduring competitive advantage at the large langua…”
Singlehurst: Understanding business models over tech suits growth over venture
“There are people on my team who are much more interested in technology itself, and also love investing, love businesses, but my focus, and I think this is a focus that perhaps makes me better at, say, growth stage investing than I would be at venture stage inv…”
Singlehurst: Public and Private Growth Investing Share Core Analytical Questions
“The core analytical questions I think are pretty similar. You have different sources of information, whether you're doing public or private, but like you're still looking for the same characteristics, right? Like if you make it very simple, you're still lookin…”
Singlehurst: Private company secondary exchanges will not work
“I don't think we'll end up in a world where you have sort of exchanges for private companies. I think you just have too much complexity in the share class structures. You have, you know, things like rofers, you have like company control. I can't see those exch…”
Singlehurst: Baillie Gifford will always invest at 30-50% chance of 5x
“If something is in the range of 30 to 50% probability of going up fivefold, well then we'll take those bets every time.”
Singlehurst: Random stock selection yields a 5% probability of 5x returns
“The probability of any given company going up five times, if you were just picking randomly, is something like five percent.”
Singlehurst: Expecting an 80% probability of a 5x return is delusion
“If you think that there's an 80% chance of making a five times return in investment, like, you're probably deluding yourself in the levels of probability and confidence that you can have in a long tail or, you know, high outcome scenario, like a five times ret…”
Singlehurst: Baillie Gifford models a 5x base upside for every investment
“So we are very consistent in how we model upside for every company we look at. We try to model to a five times upside.”
Singlehurst: Bending Spoons' moat is M&A integration and shared services
“It's a business strategy, and it's, ah, it's an approach to how you are able to integrate a business that you've acquired into a shared set of services and tools that you've built out to enable those businesses to grow and become even better products, and, you…”
Singlehurst: AI tools will not completely disrupt core fintech complexities
“And again, like, you know, I think coming back to financial technology, I think this is quite a good area where the difficulties and the nuances of those kinds of companies is, you know, a lot of it is about like how you manage regulation. And like, will AI so…”
Singlehurst: Pre-AI companies with hard-to-replicate products will remain exceptional
“I think there's a possibility of that, but I would say that there will still be companies that, that are from that sort of pre AI era that will still be exceptional companies because they have a particular way of building a product that is just very difficult …”
Singlehurst: In-game purchases and digital distribution transformed gaming longevity
“Digital distribution and in-game purchases in video games completely changed the set of incentives for game developers and players and the potential longevity that could come from those businesses.”
Singlehurst: Founder zeal matters more in growth investing than competitive analysis
“The thing that I should have placed a much greater weight on. Was the founder of DoorDash and, you know, why he'd started the business and the level of commitment that he had to these small businesses that he was wanting to help and kind of bring online and he…”
Singlehurst: Baillie Gifford passed on multiple private investment rounds in DoorDash
“One of the ones we really missed was DoorDash. We had a few opportunities to invest in that privately.”
Singlehurst: 10-year public equity investments should be treated as illiquid assets
“If we're investing in a company with a 10 year view, You probably shouldn't be doing anything two or three years into that investment journey. You should really be thinking of it as being pretty much as illiquid as any private holding.”
Singlehurst: Long-term investors will inevitably look foolish during winning investments
“If you are sufficiently long-term even in your most successful investments, there will always be a time when you look and feel really stupid.”
Singlehurst: Baillie Gifford began researching and buying Tesla stock in 2012
“I was working on Tesla in 2000 and 12, and we went on to buy that for various strategies.”
Singlehurst: High turnover prevents investment teams from developing true trust
“I think that just gives rise to a kind of level of trust and a level of working together that we couldn't have if this was a sort of organization where kind of people came in for a couple of years and then left. And if it was more of a kind of high turnover so…”
Singlehurst: Going public should aim to deter misaligned investors
“They should actually treat the process of going public as much as an exercise of trying to put off the wrong kind of investors.”
Singlehurst: VCs use operational services as air cover to justify high fees
“There's a sort of industry of using that as kind of air cover to carry out quite a lot of window dressing around sort of so-called value creation in order to justify very high fees”