Forecasting Tournaments
topic on 1 show · 2 statements across 1 episodes
2 statements about Forecasting Tournaments, every show
Tetlock: Executives resist forecasting tournaments to protect their high-status judgment
“Even though I think we have shown that forecasting tournaments can appreciably improve probability estimates, there are a lot of reasons why organizations don't adopt them. One is the people at the top of the status hierarchy. They're not very enthusiastic. Bo…”
Tetlock: Making explicit probabilistic judgments improves forecasting accuracy
“And I think one of the major takeaways from the forecasting tournaments we've been running is that when people make explicit judgments and they're fully self-conscious about what they're doing, they can learn to do it better.”