The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 18 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Khosrowshahi: Autonomous vehicles will take 10 years to become material in transportation
“My instinct is that you will see small scale continued experiments kind of get bigger over the next five years, but it's going to take a good 10 years for it to be a material part of our network or transportation at large. But that's a guess.”
Fenton: Benchmark probably won't be around in 30 years
“Benchmark probably isn't going to be around in 30 years.”
Gerstner (in 2022): Snowflake can reach a $500B valuation by 2029
“I think this company can be worth over five hundred billion dollars over the course of the next five to seven years.”
Zuckerberg: Threads could reach one billion users within a few years
“Hopefully in the next few years, five with threads, if that continues scaling.”
Zuckerberg: Threads could reach one billion users in a few years
“Hopefully in the next few years, five with threads, if that continues scaling”
Nvidia will eventually operate its own complete data center buildings
“They used to have to plug into other people's servers, and then they started making servers that plugged into other people's racks and rows and architectures, and then they started making their own entire rows and walls, and at some point here, they're gonna s…”
Ek: Spotify's AI DJ feature will eventually outdo Discover Weekly
“Yes. And I think it'll even outdo Discover Weekly.”
Miller: a16z and Sequoia will launch retail-accessible funds within five years
“And I'm gonna bet you that within five years, the likes of Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia, also launch funds just like this.”
Eich: US will not ban crypto due to wealthy family office adoption
“Crypto gets banned in the US or something like that. Don't think it's going to happen. One of the reasons is because I do see too many rich people partaking through their family offices and so on.”
Gilbert: Disney will set an all-time net income record in 2026
“But I think in 20, 26, it's looking like they'll set a brand new net income record ever based on the way it's trending.”
ETF assets will surpass traditional mutual funds within a few years
“So if that keeps up at some point here in the next small set of years, ETF assets will pass traditional mutual funds to become the largest equity asset class in the world.”
Formula 1 Will Never Remove the Monaco Grand Prix From Its Calendar
“But there's also no chance that they would ever get rid of Monaco.”
Gilbert: Formula 1 Will Not Replicate Its $500M Owner-Operated Las Vegas Race Model
“I don't think they will pursue this model elsewhere. If I'm reading the tea leaves right now, these things take a long time to pay back. And I think they've sunk over half a billion dollars into building this out.”
Gilbert: NFL will easily beat $25B annual revenue target by 2027
“The league now does over twenty three billion dollars per year across all teams. That's on track to surpass twenty five billion, which was their goal by 2027, they're going to easily beat this number.”
Rosenthal: IPL will add at least two more expansion teams
“At least two more teams are gonna get added in the next x period of time here.”
Calacanis: SEC accreditation rules will soon allow test- or course-based qualification
“I believe that we're going to have a test For accreditation. And you'll be able to be sophisticated if you take a course. So I think that's coming in the coming years.”