The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 62 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gilbert: Google would have rejected Eric Schmidt if he used a heavy hand
“It was so uniquely googly that there would have been organ rejection if Eric tried to take a heavier hand.”
Rosenthal: Google launched in a uniquely narrow historical timing window
“If Larry and Sergey had met and started working on this a few years earlier, it would have been Yahoo! Because the web was just so much smaller. Like, you didn't need a technology-based search engine to understand it. And then if they'd started a few years lat…”
Gilbert: Rolex would only be a 'good' business today if it adopted quartz
“And so I think if they had gone quartz, Rolex would be fine today. That would be a way to build a good business. But the way to potentially build a great business was to try this crazy Blancpain-esque strategy, but at scale with one of the biggest and most suc…”
Schultz: Starbucks should have secured an exclusive on the modern sip lid
“Howard Schultz should have said to them, I want an exclusive on that lid. Because that lid became the standard for the world. If I would have just understood that.”
Novo Nordisk survived only because of its foundation ownership structure
“And, foreshadowing, there is a moment much later in history where, absent the control of this foundation, Novo Nordisk would have ceased to exist. It is only because of this structure that Novo Nordisk survived, and that we have GLP-I's and everything we have …”
Ferrari Cannot Maintain Its Profit Margins at Porsche's Volume
“Ferrari couldn't make the number of cars that Porsche does and maintain those margins, so that's not really a fair, like, direct comparison in terms of who their competitor is.”
Rosenthal: Enron would have collapsed immediately without 9/11 market distraction
“Now, if this were not September 12th, 2001, that would have been game over for Enron, like right there.
That would have been the end.
But everybody's a little distracted.”
eBay might have become a non-profit resource if not for server costs
“It is funny that like if Pierre hadn't Needed to pay for the server costs. There's a really good chance this could have gone the way of the Linux foundation or Craigslist. And I know Craigslist is a real business now, but like it could have been Wikipedia coul…”
Gilbert: Amazon would not exist today without first hire Shel Kaphan
“I don't think Amazon would exist today if it weren't for Shell, and I think that's sort of a widely acknowledged thing among the early team, including Jeff”
Gilbert: Amazon could not have executed its strategy without public long-term commitment
“There is zero chance that they would have been able to execute the strategy that they did if it weren't for their ability to be loud and proud about their intentions.”
Ovitz: Jurassic Park could not be made under old studio system
“If this was done under the old studio system, all of them would have been under contract to a different studio, and the odds of loaning them out were nil, and then the odds of getting this made outside the system would have been almost impossible.”
Rosenthal: Rolex probably would have stayed in England without wartime tariffs
“I think if that were the only factor, Rolex probably would have stayed in England.”