why aren't all 99 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Popular belief that Nadella originated Azure is historically inaccurate
“As the general public is concerned, Steve Ballmer was obsessed with Windows. He built the enterprise business. He left. Satya Nadella came in and launched Azure, and Azure has been great. Like, not exactly. That's not really what happened.”
Prediction Held up
Microsoft will not make Activision games Xbox exclusive following the acquisition
“People are worried about with the Activision deal about whether Microsoft would make Activision's games exclusive on Xbox. I don't think they will.”
Assertion Supported
Alphabet generates more net income than any other U.S. company
“Google, and I should say Alphabet today, generates more net income or profit than any other U.S. Company. More than Apple, Microsoft, Exxon Mobil, JPMorgan Chase, Berkshire Hathaway.”
Assertion Supported
Ballmer: Microsoft's first antitrust inquiry came from FTC over IBM collusion
“This was our first antitrust problem. I don't know if you guys know this, is the FTC at the time thought we and IBM were working to divide the market because we had done some positioning. What's windows good for? What's always too good for? We and IBM had done…”
Assertion Supported
Mark Zuckerberg Turned Down a $24 Billion Acquisition Offer From Microsoft
“Less than two years later, he turned down twenty four billion and that they were really good for the money. It's Microsoft.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Majority of Microsoft leadership and Satya Nadella opposed Nokia acquisition
“At one point, as Satya talks about in the book, there's a straw poll taken of all the division heads, all the top leaders in the company, whether they're for or against the acquisition. The majority are against the acquisition. Satya is against the acquisition…”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Microsoft licensed Spyglass Mosaic code for $2M for Internet Explorer
“They license the source code for Marc Andreessen's original Mosaic browser from... Spyglass software for two million dollars, and that code base becomes the base upon which Microsoft builds Internet Explorer.”
Assertion Supported
Apple's 1985 intellectual property license covered all future versions of Windows
“Apple does do a deal to license a lot of quote unquote their intellectual property, which of course came from Xerox, to Microsoft. Apple, I think, was under the impression that it was just for Windows one point oh, but the actual terms of the agreement are thi…”
Assertion Supported
Novo Nordisk's 84% gross margins surpass Microsoft and Google
“Gross margins are better than software. They run about 84%. Lilly is also a very high margin company, running about 80%. For context, Microsoft has a gross margin of 70% and Google is 56%.”
Assertion Supported
Over 90% of Early Google Searches Ran Inside Microsoft Internet Explorer
“So to this point, over 90% of Google search queries were done on Windows PCs, and 90% were done in Internet Explorer running on those PCs.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft's Productivity Segment Generated $120 Billion Versus Google Cloud's $50 Billion
“Microsoft's Productivity and business process segment, which is mostly office. I think LinkedIn is now part of this too. Last year generated over a hundred and twenty billion dollars in revenue. Google reports Workspace as part of the cloud segment. So all of …”
Assertion Supported
Ballmer: Microsoft initially charged fixed fees before switching to per-unit licensing
“We didn't charge for the operating system on an ongoing basis. We charged for it one time. If you got a new version, we charged another time and we did the same thing for basic and everything else because At the time, you could think we were like a substitute …”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Microsoft invested $240M in Facebook at a $15B valuation
“And the big kicker, Microsoft is going to invest two hundred and forty million dollars in Facebook at a 15 billion dollar valuation.”
Assertion Supported
Google Sheets Users Are in the Global Minority Compared to Excel
“Excel is still the main way that spreadsheets are done around the world. I bet a lot of listeners use Google Sheets. We do, too. We love it. Also use Excel, but if you do use Google Sheets, you are in the minority.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Initial Azure launch did not threaten Microsoft's Windows-centric model
“In its initial incarnation, Azure did not threaten The Windows-centric approach. If you remember, when Azure launched, it was Windows Azure, and it ran Windows Server, and it was Platform as a Service, and Microsoft in no way changed its tune on open source.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: 1994 Microsoft consent decree banned tying but allowed feature integration
“The next year, in July, 1994, Microsoft just settles with them, rather than going to trial. They're like, alright, look, we just wanna be done, we're gonna settle with you DOJ, we're gonna be done with the US federal government here, and in that settlement, th…”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: More profits accrued to Microsoft's partner ecosystem than to Microsoft
“There are far more profits who have accrued to Microsoft's independent software vendors, resellers, retail partners, than just to Microsoft itself.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Windows XP sold over 500 million copies across its lifetime
“XP was a huge success. Sells over half a billion copies. Gets used over its lifetime on probably a billion PCs.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Microsoft P/E multiple compressed from 75x to 14x under Ballmer
“The P.E. Multiple went from 75 X to 14 X. The market cap when he was announced went from six hundred billion to when he left at three hundred and thirty billion.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft retained full non-exclusive licensing rights to DOS from IBM
“Microsoft retained the rights To own DOS and to own their languages and license it and them to anyone else they wanted at any price on any terms.”
Assertion Supported
Lotus generated more revenue than Microsoft in the late 1980s
“There are a couple of years in the late eighties where Lotus has more revenue than Microsoft. And is valued higher.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft surpassed IBM in market capitalization in January 1993
“January, 93, the crowning moment, it happens, Microsoft passes IBM in market cap”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft was the first software firm to reach $10 billion in revenue
“Fiscal 95. So this is the 12 months ending in June before Windows 95 comes out. Microsoft did 5.9 billion dollars in revenue. Fiscal 96, they did 8.7. Fiscal 97, when Windows 95 is really going, they do twelve billion dollars in revenue. First software company…”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft dropped 'running Microsoft software' from its vision due to DOJ scrutiny
“And then the part that got left off later when the DOJ started sniffing around was running Microsoft software, but that is the vision here.”
Assertion Supported
Technology Venture Investors provided Microsoft's only external equity dilution
“Spoiler alert, this is the only dilution that they would ever take.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft bought full rights to QDOS for $75,000
“Later on, before this all gets announced and the PC ships, Microsoft would pay Seattle computer products another 50,000 dollars for full rights to own 86 QDOS, sell and license it to anybody else indefinitely. So I believe the total amount of dollars that chan…”
Assertion Supported
IBM paid Microsoft a $430,000 fixed fee for DOS with no royalties
“IBM paid Microsoft 75,000 dollars for testing and consultation. 45,000 dollars for DOS. 45. And 310,000 dollars for an array of sixteen-bit language interpreters and compilers. So all told, bundled together, that is 430,000 dollars fixed that IBM paid Microsof…”
Assertion Supported
Windows 95 sold 7 million copies in its first month
“Windows 95 comes out, sells a million copies in the first week, seven million copies in the first month.”
Assertion Supported
Mauboussin: 2001's Top 10 Companies Excluding Microsoft Lost $460B Over 20 Years
“So if you took Microsoft out, so you bought the other nine turns out their market capitalizations are down It's about four hundred and sixty billion dollars in the 20 year period.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft Invested an Additional $2B in OpenAI in 2021
“So after that, Microsoft invests another two billion dollars in OpenAI, which seemed like a lot of money at the time.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft Originally Created the XMLHttpRequest API for Internet Explorer
“The origin of the XML HTTP request is a part of Internet Explorer, first implemented by Microsoft, and used in this part of Outlook called Outlook Web Access.”
Assertion Supported
Writely Founder Sam Schillace Is Now the Deputy CTO of Microsoft
“He would go on to manage all of Docs and Sheets, and I think he actually managed Maps at some point, too. He is now the deputy CTO of Microsoft.”
Assertion Supported
Gmail Launched When Hotmail Offered Just Two Megabytes of Storage
“At the time, Hotmail, which as you said, Microsoft owns,
Had two megabytes of free storage, and Yahoo Mail had four megabytes.”
Assertion Supported
Ballmer: Microsoft's upgrade model threatened to cut company revenue in half
“We were selling upgrades and new licenses. And upgrades were, I can't, less than half the price of new licenses. So what does that mean? The company was headed to a world where its revenue was half of its existing revenue.”
Assertion Supported
Ballmer: US Air Force was Microsoft's first big Windows customer
“Our first big Windows customer, at least as I remember it, was the US Air Force, and they were buying single copies of Windows.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Microsoft offered around $1M to acquire Zuckerberg's high school software Synapse
“Yeah, and I think Microsoft was one of them, too. It was for, like, a million-dollar acquisition offer or something like that.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Facebook revenue reached $48 million in 2006
“In 2006, with this Microsoft partnership, that jumps to forty eight million dollars in revenue.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Facebook reached $153 million in revenue in 2007
“And then the next year in 2007, again, I think almost all of this is Microsoft, that goes to a hundred and fifty three million dollars in revenue.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Microsoft pursued Facebook in 2007 after missing search to Google
“Microsoft, perhaps obvious now in retrospect to everybody, really just wants to buy the company. But Mark's, of course, not gonna do that after the whole Yahoo experience, etc. Microsoft is also happy, though, to just keep the partnership going and expand it, …”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: LinkedIn generates over $16B in annual revenue
“Sixteen billion plus in revenue today.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Windows 95 lacked an internet browser at launch
“There was one thing. That was missing from Windows 95 at launch. That if you were a consumer user of technology, of software, of products, of operating systems, maybe you kind of wanted to have. And that was an internet browser.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft's Enterprise Business Has Never Had a Down Year Except 2008
“The enterprise motion of Microsoft has basically never had a down year. I mean, 2008 in the Great Recession. But other than that, like, chug, chug, chug, chug, chug, even through the bad Windows releases.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: J Allard's 1994 memo coined Microsoft's 'embrace, extend, innovate' strategy
“In January, 1994, when a young Windows networking engineer named James Allard, or J as he goes by, writes a memo to Bill Gates and to the senior leadership At Microsoft entitled Windows, the next killer application for the internet. And in this memo, he points…”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Ballmer declared Microsoft 'all in' on cloud at UW in 2010
“In 2010, Ray Ozzie actually leaves the company, but as he's doing, he and Steve roll Red Dog, by this point in time renamed Azure, back into the server and tools business, and the two of them go to the University of Washington, and Steve gives a speech at the …”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: FTC deadlocked 2-2 on Microsoft antitrust penalties in 1993
“So in July, 1993, the FTC commissioners vote on whether Microsoft is a monopoly that deserves further action and penalties, and they deadlock at two to two, which means essentially a win for Microsoft. No action would be taken against the company.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Microsoft invested $240M in Facebook at $15B valuation in 2007
“So the terms of the deal are, in October, 2007, Microsoft invests two hundred and forty million dollars for 1.6% of Facebook. So for those trying to do the math at home, that is a fifteen billion dollar valuation on the deal. Microsoft will get the exclusive r…”
Assertion Supported
Judge Jackson Ordered Microsoft Broken Up Into Two Companies in June 2000
“On June seventh, 2000, Judge Jackson issues the final judgment in the case, and he rules that Microsoft did indeed abuse its monopoly power, and as a remedy for having done so, he orders that Microsoft be broken up. Into at least two separate companies. Separa…”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: TVI provided Microsoft's only outside capital before its IPO
“The only outside capital into the company before IPO from TVI, and then Dave went on to co-found August Capital, where he's a partner emeritus these days.”