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Taiwan

6 statements across 3 episodes · 1 bullish · 3 bearish · 4 people on the record · first statement Nov 3, 2021 by John Bathgate · said 96 times in 14 episodes since 2021 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by David Rosenthal (48), Ben Gilbert (19), Ben Thompson (13), Morris Chang (9), John Bathgate (4), Steve Ballmer (2), Anthony Gonzalez (1)

tap a year for its mentions
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03520212022202320242025episodes it came up in
00102.520520212022202320242025episodesmentions per episode
2025 63 mentions in 4 episodes 16 per episode
2024 1 mention in 1 episode
2023 4 mentions in 2 episodes 2 per episode
2022 23 mentions in 5 episodes 5 per episode
2021 5 mentions in 2 episodes 3 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Taiwan, oldest first

Nov 3, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bathgate: A TSMC fab shutdown sets Western tech progress back five years
“If for some reason, you know, China moved to seize Taiwan or however, you know, it went into play and all of a sudden TSMC's fabs were shut down, then you really, the Western world would be, you know, set back at least five years, if not 10, just in terms of l…”
John Bathgate Nov 3, 2021 ▶ 1:20:42 Complexity Investing & Semiconductors with NZS Capital (Extended Cut) · Acquired
Dec 6, 2022 bearish
Opinion
Thompson: TSMC cannot hedge against Taiwan geopolitical risk
“A core to their model, essential to the model of being so flexible, being so adaptive of incorporating new equipment of accommodating hundreds and hundreds or thousands of customers is all their engineering's in one place. And that. Place is Taiwan and that ha…”
Ben Thompson Dec 6, 2022 ▶ 1:38:10 Stratechery (with Ben Thompson) · Acquired
Jan 21, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Gilbert: Geopolitical threat from China is TSMC's primary existential risk
“That, to me, absent an enormous computing paradigm shift, is the way that TSMC has an enormous risk in the business.”
Ben Gilbert Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 2:01:15 TSMC · Acquired
Jan 21, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: TSMC sustained 17.4% annual revenue growth over 27 years
“Since the first IPO in Taiwan in 1994, TSMC has had compound annual revenue growth of 17.4% for 27 years.”
David Rosenthal Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 1:45:04 TSMC · Acquired
Jan 21, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
The average Taiwanese company gross margin was 4-5% in the mid-1980s
“The average gross margin of a Taiwanese company at this point in time in the mid-eighties is four to five percent. Zero four to zero five percent gross margin.”
David Rosenthal Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 46:54 TSMC · Acquired
Jan 21, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Taiwan's RCA Tech Transfer Was 2.5 Generations Behind Leading Producers
“By the time it actually gets onto the ground in Taiwan, they're two and a half generations behind the leading producers.”
David Rosenthal Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 52:27 TSMC · Acquired
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