Peloton

“There's a trend that they need to follow over the entire lifetime of their business, which is Dropping the price point so they can keep attracting that next concentric circle out from the core affluent customer. If they're actually interested in continuing to …”

“And so when they reported their last full year fiscal end, I believe churn was like .6 monthly churn was like .6% worked out to about seven percent annual churn.”

“I think two years from now, I think the most likely thing is that it's acquired by someone”

“My understanding is that the top Peloton instructors make like 500 K to a million.”

“So, sixty million dollars in revenue in 2015. 2016, they do a hundred and seventy million dollars in revenue. 2017, there is three hundred and twenty five million at a 1.3 billion dollar valuation.”

“IPO at eight billion went all the way up to, I think, forty nine billion. And then today is floating a little above the IPO price between nine and ten billion.”

“I ran the math on what it would cost Spotify to pay the labels for the same amount of music listening time based on the data that we used in the Taylor Swift episode. So, you know, 15 hours across a month. So I was thinking the same as, like, you know, a 30 mi…”

“In the last 10 plus years, there has not been a breakout consumer hardware piece of technology that is, that survives as a standalone company, and you look back at Fitbit and GoPro and Jambox. I even wanna call out, this one's gonna be a serious callback, but …”

“And then November of 2021, last fall, they miss earnings. They cut their Outlook, and the stock gets hammered down 32% in one day with the earnings announcement.”

“Six months ago, we had about a 100,000 digital subscribers for the business. And within 45 days of COVID hitting they gave this deal that said, you're not getting a month free, you get three months free because people need to work out at home. And within 45 da…”

“People thought it was, the hardware couldn't be that great if it was 1200 dollars, and they realized that if they raised the price up to 2245 dollars, that then in people's minds, this becomes this, like, jewel, premium, expensive, aspirational, luxury product…”

“The Peloton idea, like, it was revolutionary. On a whole bunch of dimensions. You know, one was democratizing location, like you didn't have to be in New York to get the best stuff. Two was, like you said, elastically scaling access to the best instructors, no…”

“By leaf Excel in 2014, it was a ten million dollar total round on a thirty five million post where Tiger put in five million. Tiger would go on to become the largest shareholder at IPO owning just under 20% of the business.”

“After that news on January 20th, a couple of weeks later, an activist investor called Blackwells Capital comes out and announces that they've accumulated a five percent stake in Peloton.”

“They lower guidance significantly. They pull the plug on Peloton Output Park. They cancel the plans to build the manufacturing facility in Ohio. They lay off 2800 people. And Barry McCarthy is riding in as the new CEO.”

“And then even relative to other connected fitness companies, because Peloton has the largest member base, just like with Netflix, they can invest in more great content because they have more resources from more subscribers. And then that's a virtuous flywheel.”

“Interestingly, fully, and I think he's right on this, I think this isn't one of his sort of, like, grandiose statements that ends up not being true, thinks that the tread market is, like, three X what the bike market is, because running is a much more, like, t…”

“About a third of the revenue that comes from subscription, so not like the physical bike sales, but if you just look at the Subscription revenue. A third of that goes to cost of revenue. And while we don't know for sure, it's very likely that the majority of t…”

“His current remaining stock, even at the closing price on Monday was five hundred million dollars.”

“Earlier in 2019, they get sued for first one hundred and fifty million dollars, and then they up it to three hundred million dollars by the music publishers, national music publishers association because they're obviously using all this music as part of the cl…”

“The second order thing that I don't think they realized by jacking up the price is that now they're picking their customers, and they're picking affluent customers, and in particular they're picking customers who have extremely low price sensitivity. And what …”

“The IPO is, is not a good one prices around eight billion dollars, but then trades down 11% on opening to a 7.2 Billion dollar market cap.”

“Interestingly, the hardware revenue connected fitness products is the segment. They call it also about a 40% gross margin.”

“They have piled up 1.3 billion dollars worth of bikes and treadmills, and it's just, it's not good to hold it on the books.”

“In the most recent full fiscal year, which ended June, 30, 20, 21, they spent seven hundred and thirty million dollars on sales and marketing and they added about 1.4 million gross ads on subscribers.”

“John Foley sold ninety six million dollars of Peloton stock in 2021 when the price was really high and he was talking about what a strong future the company still had in front of it.”

“And they actually got to term sheet with Flywheel. I think SoulCycle sort of gave them the cold shoulder as sort of, you know, they were so hot at the time and so big and so dominant, but Flywheel, they actually got to terms on what would it look like to make …”

“According to Peloton's proxy statement, he controls 39.6, so right around 40% of the voting power of Peloton's stock, and his co-founders own another 18%.”

“At the time of IPO, of a firm's IPO, 28% of all of the revenue in the previous year leading up to the IPO was from the Peloton deal.”

“When you look at as of January, 20, 21, they had 4000 employees that ballooned over the next year to about 9000 before these recent layoffs.”

“He ends up raising 400,000 dollars to start from friends and family at a two million dollar post money valuation.”

“September of 20 20, it's basically impossible to get one of these, the Peloton bikes at all. There's like a four month backlog.”

“So they raised 307,332 dollars in the Kickstarter. Their goal was 250.”

“His quote is everything linear dies, everything on demand wins. And it's so true. Like, you know, the being able this element of being able to access Best in the world content on your schedule when you want it.”

“You could have the best hardware in the world, but You needed the books. Like the content was what really mattered. It didn't matter if the Nook hardware was better than the Kindle or not. Like Amazon had the biggest selection of books, the easiest buying expe…”

“They grew membership from 700,000 to nearly three million.”

“He had been prior to starting Peloton. He had been the head of Barnes and Noble's nook business, their e-reader business which is based in New York.”

“They own all their own distribution, and they're driving around neighborhoods all over America.”

“According to a piece from Tricordist, which is a music industry site, Peloton pays out 3.1 cents every time that you are on a ride and hear a song.”