The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 83 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 83 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Horowitz: Big Tech's startup cloud deals involve illegal roundtripping accounting
“The big tech companies have done this thing which we thought was illegal because we observed it occur at AOL and people went to jail, but what they've done is they invest in startups, you know, huge amounts of money. Microsoft and Amazon and Google are all doi…”
Musk and Huang Co-Designed an Orbital NVIDIA Rubin Rack for 2027
“Elon said that he and Jensen have co-designed a Reuben rack. And there, it's gonna launch in the fourth quarter of 27.”
Johnson: No base model has used new view prediction before Atlas
“And this is a really fundamental primitive that we think is super exciting, a super new primitive For base models that no one's ever done before, right?”
Kha: Anthropic Is Going Public Later This Year
“But obviously, anthropics go in public later this year.”
Evans: Tech industry cannot spend $10 trillion annually on AI infrastructure
“We can't spend 10 trillion dollars a year on our AI infrastructure, because there isn't 10 trillion dollars a year there to spend on it.”
Rampell: Rumors suggest Google DeepMind will solve the Navier-Stokes equation
“There's a rumor that the Navier-Stokes equation is going to be solved by DeepMind, which would be huge.”
Song: Brookfield Properties uses EliseAI to let one employee manage 10,000 units
“Brookfield properties is another one of our customers. They're building this centralized model that enables a single employee to serve as multiple properties. And they're actually finding that they can get a single employee to work across 10,000 units using AI…”
Sankar: SpaceX Starship heavy reuse will reduce launch costs to $10-$20/kg
“The shuttle used to cost 50,000 dollars a kilogram to get to orbit. Cheaper mechanisms we had were like 20,000 dollars a kilogram. And with Starship heavy reuse, we're talking about 10 to 20 bucks.”
Ian Webster: xAI's Grok shows lowest censorship on Chinese political topics
“And then this is probably not surprising, but there's, there is one large foundation model that does especially well on the censorship benchmark, which is Grok from XAI is, is like a relatively free model. When it comes to the sensitive Chinese political topic…”
Sheriff McMahill: West Las Vegas had a 0% homicide clearance rate in 2010
“When I was working in 2010 as the captain of West Las Vegas, predominantly black part of town we had about 13 homicides. The solve rate was exactly, guess, zero. Not a single homicide had been solved.”
Levie: Construction workers are far more mobile than tech workers
“I think we think of, you know, the tech industry as being very mobile. Well, it turns out construction workers are actually far more mobile than those of us in the tech industry.”
Kha: Venture capital exits now far exceed private equity exits
“Exits in venture now way exceed private equity.”
Evans: Microsoft, Meta, and Google spending over 50% of revenue on CapEx
“Microsoft, Meta, and Google are all on, in line to spend over 50% of revenue on CapEx this year.”
Northwood designs ground antennas to deploy on dirt without concrete foundations
“We need our antennas to fit in a standard shipping container that can go on a commercial United Airlines flight. And So it gets there the same day. We need our system to be able to fork off of that shipping container and land on a patch of dirt with no concret…”
Huberman: Study shows stimulants improve focus about as well as good sleep
“Very interesting paper came out recently from WashU showing that Adderall, it wasn't really Adderall specifically, but Ritalin and other stimulants seem to improve focus about as well as a good night's sleep.”
George: Only 5% of public software companies forecast over 25% growth
“Something like five percent of software and internet public companies are forecasting 25% plus next 12 months growth. So, 95% of the public market universe in software and internet is growing less than 25%.”
Hershberg: Clinical research market consolidated into 12 primary providers
“So it actually turns out that there's been this enormous consolidation of the clinical research organization market that's come down to about a dozen providers who have each done roughly 40 acquisitions across 30 years.”
Stoyanov: Banning technology in an industry never leads to lower consumer costs
“I cannot think of a single example where, you know, technology was banned and then costs went down. I think that just never happens.”
Cass: High tariffs and protectionism built historic US industry
“America had very high tariffs and built its domestic industry behind a wall of protectionism. America aggressively restricted immigration. America had quite aggressive industrial policy and so on and so forth.”
Dixon: SpaceX's Starlink uses stablecoins for cross-border money transfers
“SpaceX, like Starlink is like, uses it to move money from one country to another”
Wolf: Only one of the top 100 public software companies is in healthcare
“Of the hundred largest public software companies, one is a healthcare and life science company”
Burgum: China added 100 gigawatts of coal power in 12 months
“30% of the world's electricity today comes from coal. 60% of China comes from coal. China's added close to a hundred gigawatts of coal in the last 12 months.”
Vance: US builds only five commercial ships per year
“Now, we build about five commercial ships across an entire year in the United States of America. And as a result, the United States today accounts for .one percent. One-tenth of one percent of global shipbuilding.”
Ayrey: Data scientists leak API keys more frequently than SREs
“Data scientists leak out API keys and passwords more often than site reliability engineers.”
Pande: 80% of late-stage drug failures stem from flawed biology
“What is it, like, 80% of drugs fail in phase two or three in trials, and that's not because it's toxic, it's because we screwed up the biology.”
Koller: Insitro runs genome-wide CRISPR screens in two weeks
“When they're all in a pool, you eliminate all of those artifacts, and all of a sudden you have the ability to measure a genome-wide CRISPR screen, basically, so, 20,000 genes in the genome, all modifying the same cellular background in the same dish with a dif…”
Sandbox VR is rebuilding its OS for third-party white-label development
“So one of the things we're doing is actually, we're creating, we're rebuilding our operating system so that it's white labeled, that other developers can actually build on top of our system.”
John Riccitiello: Global video game players easily exceed three billion
“It's actually a lot larger that some of that excludes a big chunk of China and India and a couple of the markets. Easily north of three billion.”
Rachleff: Poor market timing costs average investors 4% annually
“Dalbar, an organization, found that this behavior of buying when the market goes up and selling when it goes down costs the average investor about four percent annually.”
Arthur Brooks: Every additional child lowers immediate parental happiness
“Nobody has kids because kids bring immediate happiness. On the contrary, you find all the evidence suggests that every additional kid you add to your house lowers your happiness.”
Smith: 2000s US Manufacturing Job Losses Coincided With Productivity Slowdown
“It wasn't until the 2000 that absolute manufacturing employment started to fall and that manufacturing employment started to fall along with manufacturing productivity slowing down.”
Allison: US threatened war with Canada to acquire Alaskan territory
“And so we basically threatened war with Canada unless they gave us this territory, and we took it.”
Carlson-Wee: Crypto assets are uncorrelated with traditional markets and commodities
“This is uncorrelated with Oil, gold, emerging market currencies, the equity markets, bonds, it's really just uncorrelated with everything else, and it's because it's a totally new phenomena.”
Ott: Early detection increases cancer survival rates to 97% versus late-stage treatments
“The best drugs that we have today to treat cancer called immunotherapies only give you about 30 to 40% chance of five-year survival in treatment. These are the best drugs that we have. Chemotherapy and radiation give you less than 20%. Chance of survival. On t…”
Sundararajan: Demographic bias directly reduces worker ratings on gig platforms
“If you happen to belong to a particular category where people are biased against you your ratings are gonna suffer as a consequence, and so that's something that we have to think about carefully.”
Grant: Nobel laureates are 22 times more likely to perform or act
“On average, Nobel Prize winners are twice as likely to play a musical instrument. They're seven times as likely to paint and do other kinds of art. They're 12 times as likely to write creative fiction, poetry, and they're 22 times as likely to act, dance, or p…”
Every private and public investor in Square made money despite valuation debates
“If you look back at the investors in every single round of private, as well as in the IPO, they all made money.”
Quantum computing will render standard public key encryption obsolete
“The current state of affairs is that when we communicate, more often than not, the public key encryption that we use is based on the inability of computers to find factors for large numbers. And so breaking or creating codes will no longer be possible using th…”
Evans: Satya Nadella explicitly signaled that Xbox is no longer Microsoft's core
“It's not just the death of Windows everywhere, it's also that Satya said very clearly that the Xbox isn't core anymore.”
Fenty: D.C. Police Department was using Palantir during his administration
“She said that she used Palantir a lot, and this, I mean, she, I was obviously using it when I was in office too”
Amazon and Yahoo failed to compete with early eBay auctions
“Both launched auction businesses to compete with eBay early in the day. And both quickly got a lot of supply because they listed it, there were no listing fees. They required no economics. And no consumers went. Both businesses were DOA, and they abandoned it …”
George: Top decile venture outcomes have increased from $10B to $40B
“The top decile outcomes, I think, used to be ten billion and now they're like forty billion.”
Johnson: Feeding camera poses natively during pre-training is unprecedented
“It also works on camera poses as a native input to the model, which I don't think anyone's ever done at the pre-training phase before.”
Bancel: Moderna's Marlborough facility will produce tens of thousands of doses
“The facility will be able to make the one in Marlboro, Mass, tens of thousands of doses.”
Kalanick says former Uber CFO and engineering VP joined Atoms
“Gautam, who was the CFO over at Uber has joined Adams. That's a recent thing. Ganesh, who was A VP or SVP of engineering over at Uber has just joined Adams”
Luzsicza: SpaceX skipped the V2 design cycle on Starship Booster
“Booster was a little bit ahead of ship, the ship team in terms of their V three design. They kind of skipped V two for Booster. They went from V one to V three.”