The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6,975 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 83 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Ulevitch: Project Maven Was Used During Afghanistan Evacuation
“Project Maven was used to make sure that we didn't leave anyone behind in Afghanistan.”
Huberman warns Melanotan use risks priapism and permanent nerve damage
“And there's a risk for men of pre-epism, which, you know, the last erection you may ever have, it might last eight hours, but that might be the last one you ever, it can cause damage to the nerves and penile tissue”
Huberman: Human genetic upper limit is roughly 120 years
“If we're talking about the, this physical body that we currently inhabit minus any robotic architecture inserted, I think it's pretty clear that the genetic upper limit is about a 120. And for most of us, it's probably closer to about a 105.”
Huberman: Clinical trials show infusions of exercised blood provide health benefits
“We know that infusion, blood infusions are beneficial. There's been a clinical trial for this. We know that Blood infusions of exercise blood are even more beneficial.”
Magic Johnson: Dodgers generate highest revenue in Major League Baseball history
“We're making money that no major league baseball team has ever made on revenues.”
David George: Top AI companies outperform SaaS while spending less on S&M
“The best AI companies that are growing the fastest are not the ones spending the most amount of money on sales and marketing, and they're spending less money on sales and marketing than their SaaS counterparts. And yet they're growing much, much faster.”
George: $4.8T AI CapEx requires $1T annual AI revenue by 2030
“So current estimates put cumulative hyperscaler CapEx at a little less than five trillion by 20 30. So if you do napkin math on that to achieve a 10% hurdle rate on that 4.8 trillion or almost five trillion of investment, annual AI revenue would have to hit ab…”
Mares: Average US child gets less outdoor time than a prison inmate
“The average child spends less time outside than, like, a maximum security prison where people are spending eight plus hours on phone.”
Mares: Average American gets almost 20% of calories from soybean oil
“Today, the average American gets almost 20% of their caloric intake from soybean oil.”
Mares: Ozempic users eating standard diets will suffer nutrient deficiencies
“If you're still eating the same crap that the average American is eating today, but you're on Ozempic and eating less of it, like, you are almost certainly going to be deficient in protein and micronutrients and a bunch of things that will have, like, long-ter…”
Mares: No US healthcare payer covers exercise for heart disease prevention
“And yet, if you look at our healthcare system, nothing in the healthcare system thinks about someone who is at risk of heart disease exercising as a healthcare intervention. No payer pays for it. No one incentivizes you to do that.”
Mares: US permits 60,000 to 80,000 chemical compounds banned in EU
“And the end result is we have between like 60 and 80,000 chemical compounds in the U.S. That are not allowed in, in the EU.”
Mares: Monsanto spent tens of millions lobbying for glyphosate liability shield
“A couple months ago Monsanto was lobbying hard, spent tens of millions of dollars to get a rider and a bill that would basically make sure that no one could ever sue them for the potential health impacts of one of their most popular products, glyphosate.”
Mares: $14B in legal damages awarded over glyphosate health exposure
“There's been fourteen billion dollars of damages awarded to people that have gotten cancer or other diseases from glyphosate exposure.”
Mares: 80% of US schools hold contracts with soda companies
“80% of schools have contracts with soda companies.”
Mares: Ketamine therapy works better than SSRIs for severe depression and PTSD
“Ketamine therapy, ketamine assisted therapy works better than SSRIs in many cases, especially for treating things that are very intense, like treatment resistant depression, PTSD, things like this.”
Mares: Lifestyle and functional medicine interventions outperform talk therapy for depression
“There have been studies that show just by focusing and taking a functional medicine approach, you know, focusing on sleep, focusing on gut health, focusing on lowering your inflammation through diet and exercise, that combination of therapies works better than…”
Mares: Big food outfunded the NIH 11-to-1 on nutrition science research
“Most of nutrition science is funded by a big food company. They outfund the NIH, like, 11 to one on nutrition science, at least historically.”
Horowitz: a16z captured 18.3% of all US venture capital in 2025
“And so this last year, 25, about 18 point, what is it, 18.3% of all venture capital raised in the U.S. Was raised by us.”
Over half of global internet users have already used AI tools
“It's probably well over half of the global internet population has used AI tools already.”
Rampell: AI drives the vast majority of net-new software revenue
“The vast majority of net new revenue that's happening in software land is actually coming from AI, both at the application layer and the infrastructure layer.”
Rampell: Ramp data shows enterprise AI spending spiked in January 2025
“We're seeing the exact opposite, and I'll show two things. So there's a company called Ramp and they are kind of credit card expense management products, and you see this giant tick up in January of twenty-twenty-five”
Rampell: 15 percent of global adults use ChatGPT weekly
“Something like 15% of adults on planet Earth now use ChatGPT every single week.”
Acharya: OpenAI lacks the proprietary therapist data powering Slingshot
“Of course, OpenAI and ChatGPT are formidable, but they simply don't have the data that Slingshot has, and as a result, Slingshot's able to provide a differentiated and high-priced product, and it's working well.”
Horowitz: AI reinvents computing beyond anything built in 50 years
“We reinvented the computer, and the new computer is far better than the one that we have been building on for the last 50 or so years.”
Horowitz: a16z Raised $15B Fund Largely Through Two AMAs
“And, you know, this raise, which was fifteen billion dollars, when we actually raised the fund, I think Mark did one AMA, and I did one AMA, and I don't know that I took another meeting on this fundraise and it was done on the reputation”
Horowitz: Musk caught up in AI with money, unprecedented in tech
“Elon did an amazing job of throwing money at the foundation model problem, and he caught up very, very fast. And that's something that in the whole history of our industry could never have happened before.”
Horowitz: AI valuation surge is matched by unprecedented customer demand
“One of the reasons why people are so worried about it being a bubble is, you know, the valuations have gone up so fast. But like, if you look at what's going on underneath in terms of the customer adoption, the revenue growth rates et cetera, like we've never …”
Andreessen: AI startups are generating revenue at an unprecedented rate
“This new wave of AI companies is growing revenue, like just like actual customer revenue, actual demand, translated through to dollars showing up in bank accounts at like an absolutely unprecedented takeoff rate.”
Andreessen: AI Costs Are Falling Much Faster Than Moore's Law
“If you look at what's happening with, ah, the price of AI is falling much faster than Moore's Law.”
Andreessen: Small AI models match frontier capabilities within 6 to 12 months
“If you track the capability of the leading edge models over time, what you find is after six or 12 months, there's a small model that's just as capable.”
Andreessen: Global AI development is effectively a two-horse race between US and China
“Basically AI is essentially only being built in the US and in China. You know, the rest of the world either, you know, can't build it or doesn't want to, which we could talk about. So it's basically US versus China.”
Andreessen: The EU AI Act has largely killed AI development in Europe
“The EU passed this bill called the AI Act, I don't know, whatever, two years ago, and it basically has killed AI development, and, well, it's actually killed AI development in Europe to a large extent and then it even, it is so draconian that even, Even big Am…”
Andreessen: AI researchers are now paid more than professional athletes
“AI researchers today are getting paid more than professional athletes right?”
Andreessen: xAI Reached Frontier Performance Parity in Under 12 Months
“XAI basically caught up to, you know, state of the art open AI anthropic level in, in like less than 12 months from a standing start.”
Andreessen: Four Chinese AI Companies Have Caught Up to Frontier State-of-the-Art
“And so, and now you've got like four Chinese companies that have effectively caught up.”
Moore: ChatGPT reaches 800M-900M weekly active users in late 2025
“If we had to call it now, ChatGPT is currently in the lead, by far, at 800 to nine hundred million weekly active users.”
Moore: Perplexity Comet browser launch traffic surpassed ChatGPT Atlas
“If you look at the data, like the spike at launch and the sustained traffic for Comet was actually much higher than for ChatGBT's own browser launch, Atlas, which is kind of crazy given how much more distribution ChatGBT has than Perplexity.”
Justine Moore: Sora succeeded as a creative tool but failed socially
“But I think what we've seen is like in the retention data and how we're seeing it used is it was massively successful as a creator tool. Like now my feed is probably two thirds AI slop, if not more. And I, over 50% of it is now Sora, whereas before it was like…”
Moore: xAI is the only major AI lab not compute-bottlenecked
“I think XAI is probably the only model company that is not bottlenecked on compute from my understanding, whereas the others have to make really, like, serious and significant calls of, like, if we let, if we release Nano Banana and go super viral, like, it ma…”
Moore: Top consumer AI startups reach 100%+ net revenue retention
“Which is why we're also seeing, like, consumer products for the first time ever have more than a hundred percent revenue retention.”
Sarah Wang: AI SRE startups are beating legacy platforms like Datadog
“That's why we're starting to see even agents built on top of classic, iconic platforms like Datadog Lose to some of the new AISRE companies, like a resolve or a traversal.”
Moore: Voice AI outperforms humans in financial compliance adherence
“But it turns out this is an area where voice AI actually outperforms because humans are actually very good at violating compliance and regulations and voice AI can get it every time.”
Perret: AI has replaced human call centers in pig butchering scams
“That used to be done based on these, like human factories in, like, Malaysia, where they would, like, have these people, like, locked in rooms sending text messages to unassuming people in the U.S. Mostly, but around the world. Now that's all AI. You don't nee…”
Horowitz: Murderers have a 53% chance of getting away with it
“For murder. You have a 53% chance of getting away with murder.”
Langley: Cell phone dumps track people better than license plate readers
“If the federal government wanted to find you, a license plate reader is the dumbest way to do it. I will just get a cell phone dump. And I will know your exact location and time at all times.”
Langley: Most homicides are now random drug or gang incidents
“The majority of crime was domestic. You would kill a partner, you would kill a girlfriend or boyfriend, so it was it was a not randomized crime. Now the majority of homicides are random. It is a drug deal gone, gone wrong. It is a gang rivalry over territory. …”