why aren't all 41 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
What-if
TrialPay Should Have Built Core Payment Infrastructure Before Promotional Features
“If we had to do it over again, the way to have potentially built trial pay would have been to say, let's build Stripe first, and then after that gets critical mass, after we have distribution for this thing that is In many respects, a commodity. I mean, I don'…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gaybrick: Stripe SaaS Platform Customer Cohort Grew 103% Year-over-Year
“The new SaaS platform cohort is a 103% larger than in 26 than it was in 25.”
Insight
Gaybrick: Organizations No Longer Need Management Layers Solely for Work Orchestration
“You had, you know, a lot of layers that were sort of orchestrating work, and very valuably so, in most cases. Exactly. But you just don't need that anymore.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gaybrick: Traditional Internet Checkout Pages Will Soon Disappear
“I think just checkout pages will go away.”
Opinion
Gaybrick: Using AI Merely to Cut Costs Shorts a Company's Potential
“I think a lot of companies have skewed in that direction where they've seen this new, you know, agentic efficiency and power as a way to optimize cost structure. You've saw some layoffs, you saw, you know, companies shrinking OpEx. And our belief is that it's …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gaybrick: Stripe Minions generated 7,000 weekly PRs, roughly 30% of Stripe total
“And so we blogged about minions, I think in January, February, and they were doing 1200, you know, PRs per week. And last week, I think 7000 PRs came from minions. And about 30% of our PRs in that week came from minions.”
Assertion Partly supported
Casado: a16z portfolio includes four $100 billion companies
“Even in the Andreessen portfolio, I was just thinking off the top of my head, we have three companies that are at the 104 companies at the hundred billion dollar mark, right? I mean, there's Stripe, Databricks, Coinbase, OpenAI.”
Assertion Supported
Wang: AI-native companies reach $100M ARR faster than SaaS predecessors
“The first thing I'd call out that seems, that sort of just jumps off the page is that the AI native companies are far outpacing their SaaS counterparts and you can see it in terms of new companies blowing past this golden metric of time to a hundred million of…”
Assertion Supported
Ayrey: Most LLMs hardcode API keys when generating integration code
“The piece about, ah, like secrets in code was some interesting research we did. Basically, we just went out and asked all the LLMs, write me an integration with GitHub, write me an integration with Stripe, and the vast majority of them hard coded the API key d…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Collison: Software will evolve to create a unified revenue platform category
“The way we see the world, there is no revenue platform right now, and if you look at all the products that we have been building, better analytics on the revenue data that you have in Stripe, a source of truth billing system, things like that, it's moving in t…”
Assertion Supported
Rampell: Durbin Amendment debit fee caps created financial tailwinds for Stripe and Square
“And if you actually look at some of the financial results of somebody like Stripe or Square, they have this great tailwind from the fact that debit interchange went down dramatically.”
Disclosure
Kha: Every a16z Fund I LP kept holding Stripe after 16 years
“Actually, very famously a year and a half ago or so, we went to our fund one LPs. At that point in time, the fund one was 16 years old, and we had this position in Stripe that we invested at the seed stage. And we asked all of our LPs, like, hey, do you want l…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gaybrick: Stripe Billing usage growth is far outpacing overall Stripe growth
“When you look at the year on your increase in usage of
Stripe billing.
It's actually a lot higher than usage of Stripe overall because it disproportionately skews towards people creating software companies.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gaybrick: ElevenLabs Blocks 2,000 Free Trial Abusers Daily with Stripe
“And I think it's today, I think it's 11 Labs recently told us that they're blocking 2000 free trial abusers per day using striped signals.”
Assertion Supported
Gaybrick: Stripe supports fiat in ~60 countries versus ~150 countries in stablecoins
“Right now you can be a Stripe user in, I can't remember what the exact number is, but around 60 countries in fiat, but you can be a Stripe user in Sablecoins and I think about a 150 countries.”
Disclosure
Gaybrick: Stripe and DoorDash Are Adopting Tempo As Default Blockchain
“Still in the early stages of building out, getting a lot of great traction. You were working with companies like DoorDash, you know, making it sort of the default, but not only blockchain in Stripe and feeling very optimistic about it.”
Disclosure
Gaybrick: Stripe launched Link Agent Wallet and CLI for AI agents
“We launched recently the Link Agent Wallet so that there's now just a Link CLI. So an agent can just sweep up Link credentials and go use them with You know, humans in the loop to say how they can use them.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gaybrick: Roughly One in Six AI Free Trial Users Were Abusive
“And I think it was something like one in six users of free trials were, Abusive.”
Insight
Gaybrick: AI Enables Teams to Do 3x More Output Without Shrinking
“If you have a line managed team of eight people, they're just doing three X more. So you might have the same manager to the manager to IC ratio, but the team is doing three things rather than one.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gaybrick: Stripe Internal AI Tool Kai Boosted Seller Productivity by 20%
“We have a tool internally called Kai, which is our sort of knowledge AI tool, and we,
Built it, I don't know, maybe six months ago, two people built it.
now, 83% daily actives or sorry, 83% weekly actives, about 60% daily actives at Stripe.
seller productivi…”
Insight
Rampell: Seat Pricing Predictability Simplifies Enterprise Sales Scaling
“Workday has the, it's predictability in both directions, right? It's predictability for the spender of the money, which is the customer. But it's also the predictability for the management team, knowing that you should spend your time trying to sign up GE, and…”
Insight
Adam D'Angelo: Subscriptions allow AI startups to monetize immediately without scale
“Like you couldn't build a good ad business until you got to 1,000,010 of millions of users. And now with subscriptions, you can just charge right away. I think especially thanks to things like Stripe that are making it easier. And so that, that, that's also ma…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rabois: Early Stripe prioritized total contribution dollars over margin percentage
“Stripe, actually, back in the day, took this model, and back before more people understood this and said, we only care about the sliver of contribution dollars, not, like, the percentages.”
Assertion Supported
Simpson: SpaceX used Bridge for stablecoins prior to Stripe's acquisition
“Yeah, I believe they were using Bridge, which Stripe now acquired.”
Assertion Contradicted
Cordova: Shopify CEO admitted replacing Stripe would severely delay company goals
“Their CEO said it on, like, an earnings call. Fairly recently, that getting to a point where you say, like, we want to bring this in-house, like, sure, we could do that, definitely something that Shopify could do, but it would effectively require them to get a…”
Assertion Supported
Mariotti: Stripe pioneered the now-standard three-column API documentation layout
“I think Stripe did a great job back in like five, six years ago on documentations because they were, I think, the first one to innovate in such a simple thing. But it looks simple, but actually very complex to make it easy to digest by having a three column st…”
Disclosure
Collison: Stripe uses browser JavaScript signals to detect fraud better than banks
“When we're looking at blocking fraud, we're doing stuff like, you know, looking at the, you know, we have JavaScript running on the end customer's web browser, and so we can tell a lot more about the veracity and is this customer who they claim to be than your…”
Insight
John Collison: No established playbook exists for API-oriented businesses
“As far as we see it, there is not a playbook for building an API-oriented service, and so a lot of that is still emerging.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Alex Rampell: Almost every new tech startup de facto uses Stripe
“Pretty much any company that's starting today is almost de facto using Stripe.”
Assertion Partly supported
Collison: Lyft drivers use Stripe Express Pay for instant debit payouts
“We worked with Lyft back a couple months ago to roll at Express Pay, where rather than just kind of sending money to their drivers via bank transfer, they can send it instantaneously to their drivers kind of directly over debit card rails, and now almost half …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rampell: Stripe will continually launch new financial services using merchant distribution
“Stripe will continue rolling out new products and services because they own the distribution layer for what is often pejoratively considered a very low margin commodity business, and that might be true, but they have a great engineering team on top of that.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
George: Average AI Company Uses 11 Stripe Products
“Now I think the average AI company uses 11 different Stripe products.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gaybrick: Stripe Nears Serving Half of All Fortune 500 Companies
“I don't know the exact percentages today, but it's not quite half, but we're getting there Fortune, 500 companies.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gaybrick: Stripe Built Global Tax Filing in One-Third the Time of US Filing
“Global filing was the next ask.
You know, we just don't want to have to think about this in any market.
And we built that in about a third of the time that it took us to get to US filing.”
Disclosure
Gaybrick: Stripe heavily invests in simulated customer environments for internal dogfooding
“And so we actually invest a lot in simulating the usage And so you can point to an account and say, you know, give me something that looks like that. But make it, you know, completely PII, you know, free, you know, randomize the growth rates so I don't actuall…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gaybrick: Stripe Projects Was Built Primarily by One Senior Engineer
“Stripe Projects was, you know, basically a PM and one of the, a very senior engineer, and a few weeks, and a couple of other engineers who jumped in as well. So I want to give them due credit, but most of the PRs came from one guy. It's got Alexander. Now he's…”
Assertion Supported
George: Stripe's stablecoin company purchase was its largest acquisition ever
“Stripe had their big, you know, product conference, and one of the big things they talked about, they did their biggest acquisition ever, they bought a stablecoin company”
Insight
Cordova: APIs allow startups to focus entirely on core product competencies
“So maybe 1015 years ago, you used to need to have someone who knew how to do bookkeeping or accounting and payments and shipping and all of these different services to get up and running. And now you can purely focus on your core competency and like building y…”
Assertion Supported
Cordova: Shopify chose Stripe over building end-to-end payments infrastructure
“Shopify, rather than, like, building their own payments infrastructure from end to end, said, rather than building it ourselves, we'd rather go down the path of working with Stripe and building on top all of the technology that we have to offer.”
Assertion Supported
Cordova: Lyft scaled via Google Maps, Twilio, and Stripe APIs
“Rather than having to build, like, mapping and logistic services, they're integrating with Google Maps. Rather than building out, like, a push notification or phone verification system, they're using Twilio. Rather than having to build their own payment servic…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Casado: Half of Silicon Valley billboards feature API-first companies
“Now if you go up and you look at the billboards about half the time, you'll see that there are companies whose primary interface is an API. So for example, you have Twilio, you have Stripe, you have Braintree, you have PubNub, like all of these are billboards …”