The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 31 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Partly supported
Sinofsky: Steve Jobs framed iPhone market share by manufacturer to undercut rivals
“Steve Jobs, like, put up a slide at the iPhone launch of mobile phone share, but he very deliberately chose to measure it by the manufacturer of phones so that it diminished the share of Windows Phone. But he also could have just done it by operating system, w…”
Steven Sinofsky Aug 8, 2025 ▶ 10:05 Steven Sinofsky & Balaji Srinivasan on the Future of M&A, AI & Tech
Assertion Supported
Evans: Only 25% of active iPhone users have installed Google Maps
“There's probably four hundred million iPhones in use, a bit over four hundred million iPhones on use. Only a quarter of those have installed Google Maps.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 14:11 a16z Podcast | Mobile is Eating the World (and Apple is Gobbling Fastest)
Assertion Supported
Johnson: Atlas achieves bullet-time effects using only three iPhones
“But now with Atlas, we can do this with just as few, through three cameras. So like no studio capture, no green screen, no expensive calibration. We can literally stick like three cameras on tri, three iPhones on tripods use these to take sort of a video of so…”
Justin Johnson Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 2:18 Why Fei-Fei Li Is Betting on Spatial Intelligence
Assertion Partly supported
Marc Andreessen claims the first smartphone traces back to 1982
“The smartphone was not a new creation in 2007. The first smartphone actually came out. If you trace it all the way back, it came out in 1982. But IBM actually released something that actually looks a lot like an iPhone in 1987.”
Marc Andreessen May 28, 2025 ▶ 34:11 Rick Rubin: Vibe Coding is the Punk Rock of Software
Assertion Partly supported
Wozniak: The iPhone was conceptually designed as an iPod with phone features
“And then the iPhone was even better. And it was based on the iPod, not the reverse, not a phone. And we'll include an iPod more like it's an iPod, but you get a phone with it.”
Steve Wozniak Dec 27, 2022 ▶ 28:14 a16z Podcast: Best Clips of 2022
Assertion Supported
Casado: Zero-click phone exploits cost $2M-$2.5M on the black market
“If you were to buy on the black market an exploit to break into a phone, for example, an Android phone, it would cost about 2.5 million dollars if it doesn't require the participation of the user. If you wanted to break into an iPhone, it's about two million d…”
Martin Casado Feb 20, 2020 ▶ 2:45 The Latest in Cyber Attacks
Assertion Supported
McAfee: Steve Jobs fought opening the App Store to developers for a year
“The compliments are so tricky that they actually tripped up Steve Jobs really badly. This is not lore. This is fact. He did not want to open up the app store to any outside developers. He thought he had to maintain super tight control over that digital environ…”
Andrew McAfee (Andy) Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:10 a16z Podcast | Companies, Networks, Crowds
Assertion Supported
Casado: Companies can map rooms using iPhone speakers and microphones via sonar
“There are companies that will take, if you have your phone out, what they'll do is they will use the speaker to send out like a hypersonic Sound that you can't hear, then, sorry, they use the microphone, the speaker to do that, and they use the microphone to c…”
Martin Casado Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 13:54 a16z Podcast | Changing the Conversation about Cybersecurity
Prediction Held up
Andreessen predicts WhatsApp, iPhone, and Android will reach 1 billion users
“And then like WhatsApp is going to do it, and then there's going to be a whole bunch of others. And I, you know, iPhone is going to do it, and Android is going to do it.”
Marc Andreessen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:12 a16z Podcast | Ben and Marc Explain (Practically) Everything – Part 1
Assertion Supported
iPhones can now perform EKGs, manage blood pressure, and sequence DNA
“It's been fascinating to see the broad range of applications that you can do on, on an iPhone today, whether it's an EKG or to manage blood pressure, or you can do DNA sequencing even today.”
Jorge Conde Apr 29, 2020 ▶ 10:14 Healthcare Has Left the Building
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Apple has 800M iPhones and 500M weekly App Store visitors
“Except there's now eight hundred million iPhones and over a billion iOS devices, and I think Apple said five hundred million people open the App Store every week, and so 30% of those purchases has become a real number.”
Benedict Evans Apr 1, 2019 ▶ 5:30 a16z Podcast | How Many Taps in the Apple (Plus) Tree?
Assertion Supported
Apple Shipped Original iPhone App Icons at 57 Pixels Square
“The we determined that if you made a rectangle that was 57 pixels square, that pretty much everybody could tap it a hundred percent of the time. No matter where it was, again, since you were going quickly, you could tap it comfortably. And that, Number, he jus…”
Ken Kocienda Feb 24, 2019 ▶ 1:23:18 Inside the Apple Factory: Software Design in the Age of Steve Jobs
Assertion Supported
Apple Halted All iPhone App Work in 2005 for Software Keyboard
“Henri, who was the software engineering manager, called all of the engineers out in, out of our offices, into the hallway. We had a group meeting. Again, about two dozen people, probably even less than that, and said, okay, you all stop. Stop what you're doing…”
Ken Kocienda Feb 24, 2019 ▶ 33:12 Inside the Apple Factory: Software Design in the Age of Steve Jobs
Assertion Supported
Steve Jobs Mandated Software Keyboard to Free Screen Space for Apps
“His idea was that We want, we need a keyboard some of the time, but we certainly don't need it all of the time, and so the idea of the keyboard being in software is that it could get out of the way, it could go off the screen, and which would then turn, make t…”
Ken Kocienda Feb 24, 2019 ▶ 35:46 Inside the Apple Factory: Software Design in the Age of Steve Jobs
Assertion Partly supported
Wilson: Top 100 mobile apps mirror top 100 pre-iPhone websites
“If you look at the top hundred mobile apps, And you look at what the top hundred websites were before the iPhone came out, it's not a very different list, right?”
Fred Wilson Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:09 a16z Podcast | Technological Trends, Capital, and Internet 'Disruption'
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Apple's 2018 iPhone lineup expands to roughly 50 global SKUs
“They've got six colors and multiple memory sizes, so you kind of count up all the SKUs they're going to have, plus the SKUs for different regions, plus the multiple SIM thing for China. They're going to have like 50 SKUs as opposed to one SKU.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:09 a16z Podcast | What's at the Core of the Latest Apple Announcement?
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Toy Story render farm had one-third the transistors of an iPhone
“The entire Pixar Rennell farm to make Toy Story, which doesn't look that high res today, but it's still amazing. But it was as it might be a third of one new iPhone.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 14:05 a16z Podcast | What's at the Core of the Latest Apple Announcement?
Assertion Supported
Russell notes the iPhone 6s lapped the Note 7 in app loading.
“The iPhone from last year was able to lap the Note seven that came out just a few weeks ago.”
Kyle Russell Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 27:34 a16z Podcast | Apple and the Case of Invisible But Audible Innovation
Assertion Partly supported
Schroeder: Over six million illegal iPhones are in use in Iran
“IPhones are illegal, and there are over six million iPhones there.”
Chris Schroeder Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:26 a16z Podcast | Layering Tech and Culture in Iran
Prediction Held up
Sinofsky: Apple is on a path to untether the Watch from the iPhone
“The one thing I will say that's going to be magical is how Apple Like, evolves, their historic way of doing things has been to tether them, and then untether them over time, and so what I think is going to be interesting to see is if they can untether the watc…”
Steven Sinofsky Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 21:33 a16z Podcast | Apple Watch -- Looking for New Things Done in New Ways
Assertion Supported
Evans: Smartphone sales exceed the camera industry's entire historical unit sales
“And more iPhone and Android, more iPhones and Android phones have been sold and were sold by the camera industry in its entire history.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 20:06 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2015
Assertion Supported
Evans: Chinese teenagers prefer iPhones and Xiaomi over Samsung
“Indeed, if you then ask Chinese teenagers what brand they want, first they say they want an iPhone, then they say they want a phone from interesting new brands like Xiaomi or Meizu and Samsung is a hand-me-down phone they get from their grandmother. They all h…”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 6:53 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2015
Assertion Supported
David George: Pre-iPhone consensus models underestimated Apple by 3x
“Consensus models were off for Apple's performance by a factor of three X over four years.”
David George Feb 9, 2026 ▶ 29:30 AI Markets: Deep Dive with a16z's David George
Assertion Supported
Acharya: Apple had 6M iPhones distributed when App Store launched
“When the App Store came out, there were six million iPhones in distribution, right?”
Anish Acharya Oct 22, 2025 ▶ 1:17:22 Why Creativity Will Matter More Than Code | Kevin Rose and Anish Acharya
Assertion Supported
Chen: Mojo Vision's micro-display features 14,000 PPI density
“Made out of micro LEDs, this thing is half a millimeter across and has a pixel density of 14,000 pixels per inch. The latest greatest iPhone clocks in as just under 500, so this thing has 30, 40 times the pixel density of the latest greatest iPhone and is half…”
Frank Chen Dec 30, 2019 ▶ 26:33 Imagining Our Future Through Tech
Assertion Supported
Evans: 800M to 900M of Earth's 4B smartphones are iPhones
“There's five and a half billion adults on earth, and four billion or so people have a smartphone, and 809 hundred million of those now are iPhones.”
Benedict Evans Apr 1, 2019 ▶ 7:14 a16z Podcast | How Many Taps in the Apple (Plus) Tree?
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple has 650 million iPhone users
“Apple's got six hundred and fifty million iPhone users.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:10 a16z Podcast | So Where Are We on the 'S-curve' for PC Devices?
Assertion Supported
McKinnon: Apple Touch ID dramatically increased iPhone passcode adoption rates
“They've turned on passcodes and more people are, have their phones locked now than ever before because they made it easier. You didn't have to type in that code and now they have a fingerprint reader.”
Todd McKinnon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:01 a16z Podcast | Making Security More Useable
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple sold 75 million iPhones, capturing 15% global market share
“Apple sold, getting on for 15% of all the phones sold on Earth in the last quarter, in the December quarter... Seventy-five million units.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 0:58 a16z Podcast | Mobile is Eating the World (and Apple is Gobbling Fastest)
Assertion Supported
Evans: iPad sales hit flatline while iPhone continues strong growth
“And the iPhone is growing quite strongly, and the iPad has been effectively flat for a year.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:18 a16z Podcast | The Micro and Macro of Mobile
Assertion Supported
Evans: iPhones average $600 while Android phones average $250-$300
“Another reason is that iPhones average 600 dollars, and Android phones seem to average about 250 to 300 dollars.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:40 a16z Podcast | Google I/O -- A Three-Hour Tour (in 30 minutes)
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