why aren't all 105 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Acharya: AI consumer software is commanding unprecedented $300 monthly pricing
“Google's top SKU is 250 a month. Grox is 300 a month. I don't think we've ever seen a time where consumers were paying those kinds of prices.”
Assertion Supported
Google NotebookLM sustains flat or growing traffic until late summer
“And then right below the top 10 was Notebook LM. At number 13. And I take your wow as a little bit of a surprise, which was a surprise to me too, and I think a bit of a narrative violation that they went viral almost a year ago. In September of 2024. But they'…”
Assertion Contradicted
Olivia Moore: NotebookLM pioneered realistic conversational disfluencies in AI voice
“Notebook LM came out, and that was the first real voice experience that put in those ums, ahs, pauses, other things that are so human-like”
Assertion Supported
Anish Acharya: Google's top consumer subscription tier costs $250 per month
“The top Google consumer SKU is 250 dollars a month.”
Assertion Supported
Immerman: Google antitrust ruling proves default search deals were anti-competitive
“So earlier this year, Google was declared a monopoly. The court ruled that they're spending billions of dollars to phone manufacturers. In the case of Apple, tens of billions of dollars is monopolistic. It's anti-competitive and it's preventing their competito…”
Assertion Supported
Andreessen: ChatGPT stemmed from Alec Radford's early LLM work at OpenAI
“The origin story of even, even ChatGPT is this is not what OpenAI actually started to do. They started to do something different, and then there was actually one guy who actually his name is, I think Alec Radford, and he literally was, like, off in the corner …”
Assertion Partly supported
Andreessen: Google formally disregards college degrees in favor of internal testing
“I think Google now formally does not take college degrees into account, or at least they've said they're neutral or ambivalent or don't care. They'll, they'll, they'll equally rank people without degrees. They'll, they do their own testing. And they go on thos…”
Assertion Supported
Ismail: Tech winners like Apple and Google succeeded by becoming platforms
“Yahoo, BlackBerry, Nokia all failed to become platforms, right? Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon all successfully became platforms, and that business model basically carries you through because now you wire yourself into the infrastructure.”
Assertion Supported
Casado: Google eliminated employee account takeovers by mandating security keys
“There's actually a pretty famous case study where Google rolled them out wall to wall. So every Google employee has a security key. They had account takeover issues, you know, six years ago, over six years of using them, account takeover went to zero.”
Assertion Supported
Bahcall: Google and McKinsey remove promotion decisions from direct managers
“Some companies, actually Google does this, and McKinsey does this, and others, they take the promotion decisions completely away from the manager.”
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Founders control all top tech giants except Apple
“And they all, except for Apple, the founders control the company.”
Assertion Partly supported
D'Amato: Google was the first company to publicly disclose Chinese cyberattacks
“If you walk through the timeline, you go back and start with Google in 2010, when they're the first company to come out and actually talk about Chinese state-sponsored actors. This is something the government and a lot of people knew about at the time. And it'…”
Prediction Held up
Russell: Current BCI tech will allow seamless thought-controlled computer actions
“And now with this current generation, it seems like between Elon, Facebook, probably something from Google that We're actually going to start to see these things that kind of invisibly actually just let you think something and have some kind of action show up …”
Assertion Supported
Evans: Google bypassed Android OS fragmentation using Google Play Services
“Always been kind of trying to get the handset makers to do operating system updates, and it's never worked. But they sort of got around that part of the fragmentation problem for their own services by putting Google Play services on top of everything.”
Assertion Supported
Sinofsky: Google pioneered infrastructure design based on continuous hardware failure
“Along comes Google, and they basically pioneered this whole notion that, like, all the disk drives, it's not like they're likely to fail, it's that they will fail. And so it was designing a whole system on the presumption of continuous failure, which was like …”
Assertion Supported
Fei-Fei Li: Google holds early self-driving advantage in data and algorithms
“Companies like Google, even though they didn't have cars at the beginning, they had algorithms. They started this early, so they now have both data and algorithms.”
Assertion Partly supported
Chen: Google powers DeepMind algorithms using commodity x86 PC hardware
“Like if you look at an x-a-t-e-s server in a data center, exactly the servers that Google is using to compute deep mind algorithms, they're PCs.”
Assertion Partly supported
Strange: Millennials trust tech giants more than traditional banks
“There's definitely a lot around the millennial generation and how, you know, they hate going to their banks more than they hate going to the dentist. They would actually trust Apple, Google, name your tech Institute more than banks.”
Assertion Supported
Hariharan: U.S. tech giants dominate India without local equivalents like Alibaba
“You don't have an Alibaba yet in India. You don't have the buy, the Google of India is Google. The Facebook of India is Facebook.”
Assertion Supported
Burbidge: Nearly 80% of millennials trust tech giants over banks
“Certainly more than 50, I think it was close to 80% of millennials trust the brands, you know, Facebook or Google. Or Apple, I think was the top of the pile, much more than their banks.”
Assertion Supported
Boneh: Big tech security teams possess the authority to delay product launches
“In big companies like Microsoft, Apple, Google security teams in fact are involved in the process from the design phase, which is really important. And then if a product is about to ship out and a security, the security team discovers a big vulnerability, they…”
Assertion Supported
Nguyen: MapReduce Was Intentionally Designed for Reliability Over Speed
“Interestingly, a lot of people may not realize that MapReduce was designed to be slow.”
Assertion Supported
Google has never disclosed revenue data for Google Play
“They haven't given any statistics at all on Android in nine months and they haven't, they've never given any data on Google Play. I mean, they've given app downloads, but they've never given revenue data”
Assertion Supported
Evans: Google Play paid $5B to developers over 12 months
“All that they paid out five billion dollars to developers in the last 12 months and two billion in the previous 12 months.”
Assertion Supported
Rampell: Geico spends $100M per year on Google search ads
“Geico spends a hundred million dollars a year buying keywords on Google.”
Assertion Supported
Rampell: Insurance advertising accounts for a big chunk of Google's value
“Google is now second most valuable company on earth, and a big chunk of their market cap is coming from insurance.”
Assertion Supported
Mars: Tech giants are building future data centers around deep learning
“Deep learning is absolutely the bet that companies are making, right? So Google has put a lot of resources into deep learning you know, Facebook. We're designing future data centers and future infrastructures around this one technique, and it's primarily becau…”
Assertion Supported
Mo: Major chipmakers use vLLM as an internal benchmark
“And additionally, VLM also work closely with all the hardware vendors. So that means across like NVIDIA, AMD, Google, and Amazon, Intel, and a lot more, their newest chip will make sure VLM can run on them. And then a lot of cases they use VLM as a benchmark t…”
Assertion Partly supported
Kim: Five of top 10 iOS productivity apps are Google, ChatGPT #1
“If you go to app store today, top five out of top 10 productivity apps are all Google. It's insane. And Chachi B is number one.”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Google's internal prediction market accurately forecast product launches
“Google had an internal prediction market where people would speculate on which products would actually ship on their ship dates, and it was a much more accurate .”
Assertion Supported
Balaji Srinivasan: US newspaper revenue collapsed post-2008 as tech advertising spiked
“This shows that essentially newspaper revenue rose to like, seventy billion dollars in the year 2000. And then right after the financial crisis, it just suddenly collapsed over the course of like four or five years and Google went vertical and Facebook went ve…”
Assertion Supported
Andreessen: Yahoo Almost Bought Google Early On at Low Price
“Yahoo almost bought Google. And there was a very, you know low price deal at the time.”
Assertion Supported
Immerman: Google approaches $200B annual search revenue with double-digit growth
“They're approaching two hundred billion of revenue annually. They're still growing double digits, highly profitable.”
Assertion Supported
Immerman: Google controls 90% of the search market
“They control 90% of the market, but their grip is slipping.”
Assertion Supported
Naous: Major tech companies built proprietary internal operational analytics tools
“So Facebook has Scuba. Google has Dremel, Rasta, and a whole bunch of others. Airbnb built Superset. Uber built Aries DB.”
Assertion Supported
Steven B. Johnson: Google's Self-Driving Patent Includes 'Bad Events Table'
“The original patent that Google filed for the self-driving car projects. Included in it is this thing they call the bad events table.”
Assertion Supported
Ehrensvärd: Google cut support costs by 92% using hardware security keys
“Google published a report not long ago where they said that they were able to cut down support to 92% compared to a phone app.”
Assertion Supported
Ehrensvärd: Mozilla and Microsoft are adding native hardware security key support
“Google was the first. Mozilla is coming on board. Microsoft is coming on board.”
Assertion Supported
Chokshi: Google was approximately the 15th search engine to launch
“Google was like the 15th search company to come around before it hit success, and that is kind of relevant to think about.”
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Big four tech platforms expanded headcount 10x in a decade
“Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, as being together about 10 times the size in terms of the number of people that they were 1012 years ago.”
Assertion Supported
Google entered quantum computing by acquiring UC Santa Barbara's research team
“Easter last year, 2014, was when everything changed. Everything changed. It was when Google disclosed the fact that they were so heavily involved. They went and bought the University of California, Santa Barbara team.”
Assertion Supported
Dixon: Google originally attempted to sell itself for $1 million
“They were trying to sell the company. And they tried to sell it for a million.”
Assertion Supported
Zaharia: MapReduce was created by Google for nightly web indexing
“MapReduce initially came out of Google, where it was used for web indexing, and the whole point was, I will run this giant job every night, and in the morning, it's built a new index of the web.”
Assertion Supported
Evans: Samsung once controlled half of the global Android market by volume
“Samsung had half of the Android market by volume, more or less, and so that was kind of concerning for Google, that you had this big, powerful partner.”
Assertion Supported
Liebert: Google cgroups provided the foundation for Docker containerization
“The roots there are actually, well, the roots lie actually at Google. So, four or five years ago, Google contributed, ah, cgroups to the Linux kernel. And cgroups are the foundation for what is now Docker, right?”
Assertion Supported
Google unified Apps, Android, and Chrome leadership under Sundar Pichai
“They now have Sundar Running both apps and Android and Chrome, so they've got, again, they've got all the future stuff under one person”
Assertion Supported
Evans: One-third of the global Android market operates without Google services
“There's two-thirds of Android, which is the one that Google gives numbers for, is outside China, and then there's another third of Android, which is in China, and doesn't have Google Play on it or Google Maps on it”
Assertion Partly supported
Apple holds 10% and Android 45-50% of global phone sales
“In as much as Apple has about, well, in the launch quarter, they have about 10% of all the phones sold on Earth, and Android has another 45 to 50% although only about two-thirds of those are Google Android and one-third are in China and don't have any Google s…”