why aren't all 27 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Ashatosh: Azure and IBM will beat AWS in enterprise cloud within two years
“In fact, we predict that the number one enterprise cloud in the next two years is probably going to be Azure, and not AWS, just because they are sucking up a tremendous amount of footprint of applications. And number two actually might be IBM, and not AWS, as …”
Assertion Supported
Casado: AWS has never put a startup out of business
“I can't think of one company AWS has ever put out of business by launching a service, and you know what, they've all been fine.”
Prediction Held up
Patel: AWS year-over-year revenue growth will re-accelerate above 20%
“This is the lowest AWS revenue growth will be on a year-to-year basis. For at least the next year, right? And it's re-accelerating to north of 20% again because of all these massive data centers they have online with Tranium and GPUs, right?”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Casado: Consolidated AI infrastructure companies will maintain high profit margins
“For the AI wave, yeah, for sure, like, this is extreme, but it will slow down, and then the consolidation will happen, but I guarantee you'll just end up with these great companies that maintain margin, like, AWS still has great margins, you know, Google still…”
Insight
Dixon: Blockchain miner networks operate as a decentralized, public version of AWS
“We've had open source software. We've never had open, open services. So these are services, OPEX, running So basically, effectively, it's a public AWS, is what you should think of as the miner network.”
Opinion
Dixon: AWS is essentially a reseller of open-source software
“AWS is essentially a reseller of open source software.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sinofsky: Operating an on-prem data center costs 10x more than AWS
“People complain about AWS pricing, but the flip side of it is like running a data center yourself is 10 times as expensive.”
Insight
Jensen Harris: Early ML startups should use cloud providers, not custom infrastructure
“Yeah, you don't need to custom build something, and you shouldn't spend any of your time working on that. Like, you should figure out what cloud platform you're using, whether it's AWS, or whether it's Azure, or something else. They all have built-in ML servic…”
Assertion Supported
AWS built the U.S. Intelligence Community cloud using standard commercial architecture
“The intelligence community is a cloud that we built. It's exactly like any cloud that we built around the world. It's just on their own network. So by sense, it's their own private cloud, but it is just like any other AWS region. It's just on a different netwo…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
The hybrid cloud model will remain prevalent for a long time
“Well, in terms of the hybrid cloud model, we believe that's around for a long time, because customers, you know, they're not going to transition overnight, and they need to be able to take advantage of what they built over the years.”
Assertion Supported
Bezos reinvests hundreds of billions into Amazon's infrastructure over holding cash
“And for Amazon, you've got exactly the opposite story, that instead of taking, putting a hundred and fifty billion dollars in the bank, he's put a hundred and fifty billion dollars into building new warehouses, and AWS, and new countries, and new categories, a…”
Insight
Acharya: AI applications convert raw model primitives into industry economic outcomes
“The key point about the application layer is that, you know, intelligence is a primitive, just like buying cloud is a primitive. And what does Salesforce do? It sort of takes the, you know, AWS cloud primitive and turns it into CRM software that delivers an ec…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rampell: AWS accounts for vast majority of Amazon's market cap
“AWS accounts for the vast majority of market cap of Amazon.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ismail: The launch of AWS marked the birth of exponential organizations
“Cloud computing was probably the most relevant here in the kind of we considered the birth of an EXO when Amazon Web Services launched, because now you can take computing off the balance sheet and make it a truly variable cost.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Power: Space Technology Will Function as Infrastructure, Not Have a Killer App
“No, I don't think there's a killer app and I don't think there will be because it's like you know, does your average consumer, You know, know about AWS, not really like outside of our technology domain, but like can any of the stuff that they love exist withou…”
Assertion Partly supported
de la Garza: AWS Employee Misconfiguration Caused Hosting Provider Data Breach
“There was a hosting provider that had a breach of their data that was caused by an, it was actually an AWS salesperson, had misconfigured the permissions on their S three bucket and had a bunch of customer confidential data inside this bucket, which then got d…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
De la Garza: Leaked AWS credentials led to $500K in unauthorized mining
“There's one company that I heard of that checked their credentials for AWS into their GitHub repo on accident, mistake that people make. Within a couple of hours, they had run up about 500,000 dollars of AWS compute charges as people tried to mine Bitcoin.”
Disclosure
Wilson: 90% to 95% of USV portfolio companies run on AWS
“90% of the companies Maybe 95% of the companies we back are built on AWS.”
Assertion Supported
Dixon: Ethereum Is Less Performant Than AWS and Google Cloud
“Crypto networks like Ethereum are actually kind of worse in some of those dimensions. So, for example, as in the performance side, it's not as performant as, let's say, AWS or Google Cloud Services or something if you wanted to write a video game or something.”
Disclosure
Spisak: AWS is tracking 500 to 600 internal enterprise AI use cases
“I'm tracking something like five or 600 use cases internally that our sales folks are coming to us and saying, hey, I got this problem.”
Insight
Middle East startups need business mentoring more than technical support
“The Middle East, I think, is a really good example of what we had to do there was a little bit different. We actually had to create a model for mentoring in terms of business mentoring, because they have some businesses that are really start-uppy there, but we…”
Opinion
Zuegel: IPFS is the AWS equivalent for cryptocurrency infrastructure
“IPFS is sort of the AWS of crypto, or at least the S three.”
Assertion Supported
Dixon: Ethereum is less performant than AWS or Google Cloud
“Crypto networks like Ethereum are actually kind of worse in some of those dimensions. So for example, as in the performance side, it's not as performant as, let's say, AWS or Google Cloud Services or something.”
Insight
Emerald Cloud Lab is virtualization like AWS, not outsourcing like CROs
“Be, it's not outsourcing, it's virtualization, so we are much more similar to Taiwan Semiconductor or Amazon Web Services than we are to any of these CROs”
Disclosure
AWS Public Sector scaled slower than expected, requiring hands-on customer guidance
“Once we got in the door, we felt maybe the customers would scale faster than they actually did. Now, fast forward five and a half years, I'm very pleased with where our customers have gone, but I think we probably didn't realize how much sort of work we would …”
Assertion Partly supported
AWS global regions automatically inherit newly launched compliance controls
“When we create a security and compliance control, if we launch it in one region, the others inherit it.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dixon: Distributed computing will dominate software engineering for decades
“Over the next few decades, distributed computing will be a particularly important topic because we're now with things like AWS awash in Computing resources you know, compute is becoming, approaching zero, storage, networking, but most of this is on, you know, …”