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Jan 2, 2019 · 14m · a16z

a16z Podcast | What the Apple Watch Is -- and Isn't

Benedict Evans · 11m spoken Michael Copeland · 1m spoken
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Analyst Benedict Evans joins Michael Copeland on the a16z Podcast to discuss the Apple Watch launch, analyzing Apple's luxury pricing strategy, brand halo positioning, and the evolution of consumer technology toward fashion and frictionless user experiences.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →

The host as informed peer 3.0 Guest teaching 4.3 Guest disagreement 2.5 The host pushing back 2.0
05100:0010:002:16–4:21 · The host as informed peer 2/10 Apple Retail Analogy and the Luxury Halo Effect Michael asks why Apple would make a $10,000 watch when they do not make expensive luxury iPads. Benedict immediately reframes the distinction, noting that gold watches exist in the real world whereas gold computers do not, before explaining the brand halo effect of Apple's high-end products.4:21–6:51 · The host as informed peer 2/10 Mainstream Models and Adapting to New Device Categories Benedict monologues on how new device categories like the iPad and early mobile phones adapted to market adoption curves. Michael interrupts briefly to check on battery life specs, which Benedict clarifies based on heavy usage versus normal daily wear.6:51–10:35 · The host as informed peer 3/10 The Wrist as an Information Filter and Usability Step Change Michael pushes back on Benedict's analysis, pointing out that Benedict seems to be trying to zero in on specific use cases despite questioning them. Benedict strongly rejects purely utilitarian analyses, calling common status explanations idiotic and using a rhetorical example about boiler suits to explain emotional utility.10:35–12:11 · The host as informed peer 5/10 Hiding Hardware Specs and Frictionless Interaction Michael offers an insightful synthesis of Apple's product history, noting that Apple previously backed up desirable design with hardware specifications, whereas the Apple Watch represents a pure object of desire from the outset. Benedict agrees with the analysis and expands on the concept of hardware becoming an invisible piece of glass.2:16–4:21 · Guest teaching 5/10 Apple Retail Analogy and the Luxury Halo Effect Michael asks why Apple would make a $10,000 watch when they do not make expensive luxury iPads. Benedict immediately reframes the distinction, noting that gold watches exist in the real world whereas gold computers do not, before explaining the brand halo effect of Apple's high-end products.4:21–6:51 · Guest teaching 4/10 Mainstream Models and Adapting to New Device Categories Benedict monologues on how new device categories like the iPad and early mobile phones adapted to market adoption curves. Michael interrupts briefly to check on battery life specs, which Benedict clarifies based on heavy usage versus normal daily wear.6:51–10:35 · Guest teaching 6/10 The Wrist as an Information Filter and Usability Step Change Michael pushes back on Benedict's analysis, pointing out that Benedict seems to be trying to zero in on specific use cases despite questioning them. Benedict strongly rejects purely utilitarian analyses, calling common status explanations idiotic and using a rhetorical example about boiler suits to explain emotional utility.10:35–12:11 · Guest teaching 2/10 Hiding Hardware Specs and Frictionless Interaction Michael offers an insightful synthesis of Apple's product history, noting that Apple previously backed up desirable design with hardware specifications, whereas the Apple Watch represents a pure object of desire from the outset. Benedict agrees with the analysis and expands on the concept of hardware becoming an invisible piece of glass.2:16–4:21 · Guest disagreement 3/10 Apple Retail Analogy and the Luxury Halo Effect Michael asks why Apple would make a $10,000 watch when they do not make expensive luxury iPads. Benedict immediately reframes the distinction, noting that gold watches exist in the real world whereas gold computers do not, before explaining the brand halo effect of Apple's high-end products.4:21–6:51 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Mainstream Models and Adapting to New Device Categories Benedict monologues on how new device categories like the iPad and early mobile phones adapted to market adoption curves. Michael interrupts briefly to check on battery life specs, which Benedict clarifies based on heavy usage versus normal daily wear.6:51–10:35 · Guest disagreement 5/10 The Wrist as an Information Filter and Usability Step Change Michael pushes back on Benedict's analysis, pointing out that Benedict seems to be trying to zero in on specific use cases despite questioning them. Benedict strongly rejects purely utilitarian analyses, calling common status explanations idiotic and using a rhetorical example about boiler suits to explain emotional utility.10:35–12:11 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Hiding Hardware Specs and Frictionless Interaction Michael offers an insightful synthesis of Apple's product history, noting that Apple previously backed up desirable design with hardware specifications, whereas the Apple Watch represents a pure object of desire from the outset. Benedict agrees with the analysis and expands on the concept of hardware becoming an invisible piece of glass.2:16–4:21 · The host pushing back 1/10 Apple Retail Analogy and the Luxury Halo Effect Michael asks why Apple would make a $10,000 watch when they do not make expensive luxury iPads. Benedict immediately reframes the distinction, noting that gold watches exist in the real world whereas gold computers do not, before explaining the brand halo effect of Apple's high-end products.4:21–6:51 · The host pushing back 2/10 Mainstream Models and Adapting to New Device Categories Benedict monologues on how new device categories like the iPad and early mobile phones adapted to market adoption curves. Michael interrupts briefly to check on battery life specs, which Benedict clarifies based on heavy usage versus normal daily wear.6:51–10:35 · The host pushing back 4/10 The Wrist as an Information Filter and Usability Step Change Michael pushes back on Benedict's analysis, pointing out that Benedict seems to be trying to zero in on specific use cases despite questioning them. Benedict strongly rejects purely utilitarian analyses, calling common status explanations idiotic and using a rhetorical example about boiler suits to explain emotional utility.10:35–12:11 · The host pushing back 1/10 Hiding Hardware Specs and Frictionless Interaction Michael offers an insightful synthesis of Apple's product history, noting that Apple previously backed up desirable design with hardware specifications, whereas the Apple Watch represents a pure object of desire from the outset. Benedict agrees with the analysis and expands on the concept of hardware becoming an invisible piece of glass.

speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%0:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 8:37 Dismissing utility and status analyses

Benedict forcefully rejects traditional product analysis, labeling the view that people buy expensive items purely for external status as an idiotic analysis and challenging the host with a boiler suit rhetorical analogy.

 Hardest push from the host ▶ 8:26 Host calls out guest's use case pivot

Michael directly confronts Benedict's argument, noting that Benedict appears to be searching for specific use cases despite earlier maintaining that the device's main purpose was still unclear.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 2:26 Explaining luxury hardware dynamics and retail halo effect

Benedict corrects the host's premise regarding product line pricing, demonstrating why luxury gold watches operate under fundamentally different retail logic than personal computers.

 The host holds their own ▶ 11:42 Host offers historical analysis of Apple's marketing shift

Michael demonstrates deep domain understanding by contrasting Apple's historical pattern of pairing sleek physical design with tech specs against the Watch's focus on pure aesthetic desire.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicThe host as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementThe host pushing backWhy
Apple Retail Analogy and the Luxury Halo Effect 2531 Michael asks why Apple would make a $10,000 watch when they do not make expensive luxury iPads. Benedict immediately reframes the distinction, noting that gold watches exist in the real world whereas gold computers do not, before explaining the brand halo effect of Apple's high-end products.
Mainstream Models and Adapting to New Device Categories 2412 Benedict monologues on how new device categories like the iPad and early mobile phones adapted to market adoption curves. Michael interrupts briefly to check on battery life specs, which Benedict clarifies based on heavy usage versus normal daily wear.
The Wrist as an Information Filter and Usability Step Change 3654 Michael pushes back on Benedict's analysis, pointing out that Benedict seems to be trying to zero in on specific use cases despite questioning them. Benedict strongly rejects purely utilitarian analyses, calling common status explanations idiotic and using a rhetorical example about boiler suits to explain emotional utility.
Hiding Hardware Specs and Frictionless Interaction 5211 Michael offers an insightful synthesis of Apple's product history, noting that Apple previously backed up desirable design with hardware specifications, whereas the Apple Watch represents a pure object of desire from the outset. Benedict agrees with the analysis and expands on the concept of hardware becoming an invisible piece of glass.

Statements from this episode (11)

Assertion Supported
Evans: Switzerland sells around 500,000 precious metal watches per year
“Switzerland, I think, sells about half a million precious metal watches a year.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:40
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple retail generated 10% of total company revenue
“The Apple retail business, which until they stopped disclosing it was about 10% of Apple revenue.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 2:44
Insight
Evans: Apple retail stores functioned as a self-funding marketing operation
“And so Apple retail really was a self-funding marketing operation.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:08
Opinion
Evans: Samsung cannot replicate Apple's ability to sell a $10,000 watch
“It's impossible, effectively, for Samsung to copy that. You can argue about Apple's ability to sell a 10,000 dollar watch. I don't think anybody would argue about Samsung's ability to sell a 10,000 dollar watch.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:46
Opinion
Evans: Apple Watch at $1,000 beats traditional watchmakers on quality
“A thousand dollars for a polished stainless steel watch with a woven metal bracelet is, or a high quality leather bracelet is perfectly normal, perfectly part of the course for that kind of product. In fact, it's probably better quality than what you get if yo…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:31
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: Smartwatches will require paired smartphones due to battery and space limits
“You need both, and you will continue to need both for the time being because of things like battery life and Space. You can't put a cellular radio and a battery that can power it into something that will fit on your wrist, at least not yet.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:12
Insight
Evans: Apple Watch avoids Google Glass's intrusive social interface issues
“Again, Google Glass didn't do anything that you couldn't do with a smartphone but, you know, it kind of tried to do it in a different way. And so does the watch but without all the kind of the glass hole problems of the sort of imposing the screen between you …”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:30
Insight
Evans: Apple Watch prioritizes consumer delight over technical specifications
“And then the watch again, it's another step in abstraction, and it's another step in the importance of delight over feeds and speeds.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 8:19
Insight
Evans: Tech industry is evolving from utility to fulfilling consumer desires
“And I think the progression of the technology industry, I mean, one of the ways I describe this is sort of technology outgrowing tech, is that it moves from selling technology products To selling things that create, fill other desires or kind of other pleasure…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:30
Insight
Evans: Technology UX is shifting from explicit interaction to frictionless micro-tasks
“And so the technology fades more and more into the background as an enabler for other experiences that are not about how fast you run this program. Rather, it is about you lift your wrist, and you tap on Uber, and you press yes, and then you drop your wrist. R…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 11:09
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: Apple Watch Will Be Popular, But Not Universally Owned
“What you're also, I think you're also seeing is this kind of expansion into areas where it's not something that everyone will have. It's just a delightful, pleasing product. That many people will have.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 14:15
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