Jan 2, 2019 · 35m · a16z
a16z Podcast | Truce for Mobile, Battle for VR
Kyle Russell · 16m spoken Chris Dixon · 9m spoken Benedict Evans · 6m spoken Sonal Chokshi · 26s spoken
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of the a16z podcast, Chris Dixon, Kyle Russell, and Benedict Evans analyze major virtual reality announcements from Google, Oculus, Sony, and Valve. They explore hardware trajectories, platform ecosystem strategies, software optimizations, and the long-term timeline for mainstream VR adoption.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The host holds 1.3% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The host as informed peer 6.1 Guest teaching 2.4 Guest disagreement 1.1 The host pushing back 2.6
speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 3:33 Direct challenge to Google's hardware narrative
Chris directly rejects the optimism around Google Daydream by pointing out that Google's flagship VR software does not run on its own hardware.
Hardest push from the host ▶ 12:58 Refusal of the commoditized hardware narrativeChris pushes back on the assumption that hardware manufacturers will yield platform control to Google again, citing HTC's margin collapse.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 9:49 Technical deep dive into graphics pipeline optimizationsKyle walks through detailed rendering mechanics, explaining how asynchronous space warp and multi-view rendering reduce GPU overhead.
The host holds their own ▶ 26:42 Historical analysis of misjudged technology launch casesChris demonstrates strong historical expertise by comparing VR's initial gaming focus to early misattributions of use cases for radios and phonographs.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The host as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The host pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google Daydream & Android Ecosystem Dynamics | 6 | 3 | 2 | 4 | Chris Dixon actively guides the discussion on Google Daydream and challenges the idea that Google is executing well on high-end VR. He points out that Google's own showcase apps like Tilt Brush do not run on their mobile hardware, highlighting an internal contradiction in Google's strategy. | |
| Oculus Santa Cruz & Keynote Innovations | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | Kyle Russell educates the panel on technical graphics advancements mentioned at Oculus Connect, such as multi-view rendering and asynchronous space warp. Chris adds context on GPU requirements and PC cost reductions. | |
| Vertical Integration vs. Open Ecosystems in VR | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | The group analyzes vertical integration versus open ecosystems in VR. Chris pushes back on the idea that hardware OEMs will easily accept Google's Android model again, noting how HTC suffered zero margins and near-bankruptcy. | |
| PlayStation VR Launch & Gaming Ecosystem Analysis | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | Kyle evaluates PlayStation VR's hardware trade-offs and game pricing models. Chris highlights how Silicon Valley routinely underestimates the scale and revenue of PC gaming platforms like Steam. | |
| The VR Hype Cycle, Moore's Law & Future Platform Growth | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | Chris leads a deep historical synthesis of platform shifts, framing Moore's Law as an economic principle driving rapid VR iteration. He cites historical misjudgments of initial use cases in radios and phonographs. | |
| Social VR Applications & Facebook's Platform Strategy | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | The panel explores Social VR and Valve's photogrammetry efforts in Destinations. Kyle describes his experience scanning his apartment, prompting Benedict to offer humorous observations on VR security risks. | |
| Conclusion & VR Market Tier Summary | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | A brief conclusion where Kyle summarizes the interplay between high-end innovation and mass-market trickle-down, followed by Chris closing the episode. |
Statements from this episode (18)
Dixon: Google's VR demos rely on rival hardware, showing internal tension
“Everything they demo doesn't work on their own hardware, so like there's a, there's an internal conflict there.”
Evans: Google bypassed Android OS fragmentation using Google Play Services
“Always been kind of trying to get the handset makers to do operating system updates, and it's never worked. But they sort of got around that part of the fragmentation problem for their own services by putting Google Play services on top of everything.”
Evans: If Daydream succeeds, Oculus risks becoming a subscale Android fork
“And so if there's a hundred Daydream devices, then the Facebook product, you could argue, ends up looking a bit like Kindle Fire. It's sort of subscale, squeezed out fork, and no one bothers developing for it.”
Dixon: Oculus Santa Cruz and HoloLens Only Devices with True Positional Tracking
“And then the Santa Cruz Oculus thing last week was the first, besides the HoloLens, I've ever seen that does true positional tracking.”
Russell: Full-Stack Standalone VR Will Deliver 2x-4x Mobile VR Performance
“But basically they'll be able to get two to four X the performance of the gear VR based headsets with the same hardware because they'll own the full stack.”
Dixon: Apple is actively working on a VR product
“Apple. And we know Apple's working on something around this. I mean, we know just from the companies they bought and the people they've hired, but of course it's all mysterious as to what they're actually doing.”
Dixon: VR hardware and software companies will compete for full integration
“The truce that existed during the Android era is not gonna exist during the VR era, I don't think, I mean, right? I mean, they're both gonna go at each other and just everyone's gonna want to own the whole thing.”
Dixon: Apple has not released a successful product since the iPhone
“And thus far, they haven't released really much of anything that's worked since the iPhone. So I guess we'll see how they do in VR.”
Dixon: Porting 2D games to VR does not work
“Cause you can't, we've learned that you can't just simply port two D games over and have them work. They create all sorts of issues.”
Russell: PSVR sales will surpass Oculus before 2016 holidays end
“At the very least, they will probably surpass Oculus plus Rift combined before the holidays are even out.”
Evans: High-end VR headsets will surpass PlayStation VR within two years
“They're going to release this thing now, and like in 18 months to two years' time, every high-end headset will be better than that.”
Dixon: A $300 standalone 4K VR headset is four years away
“We're seeing, I think it's accelerate, it's accelerating to the sort of Holy Grail headset, which is whatever, let's call it a 300 dollar standalone device with positional tracking and hand tracking and four K per eye or something like, let's call that the Hol…”
Dixon: Virtual reality will enter a hype-cycle trough in two years
“We're in the Gartner hype cycle and we're at the peak and there will be a trough of despond and that'll be in two years.”
Dixon: Virtual reality will inevitably be a major computing platform
“The holy grail will be, I think it's to anyone who follows the history of the computing industry, like this will be a major new computing platform. I don't think there's a serious question about that”
Dixon: Technology creators always get the initial use cases wrong
“If there's a single print rule of technology, it's that people, all the makers of the technology always get the initial use cases wrong, so for the PC, it was storing your recipes.”
Dixon: Social interaction is the killer app for all internet connected devices
“And probably people would want to do with it what they've done with every other competing platform, which is interact with other people, right? Like that seems to be the killer app of all internet connected devices, right?”
Dixon: Future VR horror games will start in user's real room
“That's actually how, like, I think in the future all the VR, like, horror things will start, is you'll start off, like, looking around the room you're actually in, and it'll look normal, and then suddenly things will start to go wrong.”
Russell: Most VR users will come from mid-tier and mobile devices
“And then kind of the PlayStation VR tier, whatever the mobile such standalone tier looks like, you're going to have trickle down of quality from the high end, but that's probably where actual, you know, numbers of users will, you know, that's where we'll see t…”