personal computing

also referred to as: pc

13 statements across 11 episodes · 4 bullish · 2 bearish · 6 people on the record · first statement Jul 15, 2017 by Benedict Evans · across every show →

Everything said about personal computing, oldest first

Jul 15, 2017
Assertion Supported
Evans: 4 billion people buy phones every two years, dwarfing PC sales
“So there are about four billion people on earth buying a phone every two years on average, as opposed to about one and a half billion PCs being replaced every five years, so the phone business is bigger, and it's getting replaced, it's converting from feature …”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 4:33 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2015
Dec 5, 2017
Assertion Supported
Evans: PC installed base reached roughly 1.5 billion global units
“It's the growth of the PC, which went from nothing to about one and a half billion units installed around the world in the last couple of decades.”
Benedict Evans Dec 5, 2017 ▶ 0:12 10 Year Futures (vs. What's Happening Now)
Jan 13, 2018 positive
Insight
Connie Chan: True mobile-first apps design specifically for smartphone hardware
“In my mind, what makes WeChat mobile first Is that they have completely unshackled themselves from the constraints of designing for a PC, and they utilize features that are mobile-specific, that are specific to mobile hardware.”
Connie Chan Jan 13, 2018 ▶ 5:50 Rise of the Super App: Mobile-First Product Ideas from China
Dec 5, 2018
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chan: China skipped the PC and credit card eras
“China basically skipped over the PC and the credit card era.”
Connie Chan Dec 5, 2018 ▶ 5:43 When Advertising Isn't Enough
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Benedict Evans: Consumers will converge on owning two main device screens
“You're just going to have this endless proliferation of screens, and people will have two, probably. They'll have one that they put in their pocket and carry everywhere. They will have, they may or may not have a much bigger one that allows them to do more stu…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 15:08 a16z Podcast | When Your PC Expires, What's Next?
Jan 2, 2019 bearish
Opinion
Stephen Sinofsky: PC software innovation is declining as mobile takes priority
“The innovation that's taking place in software on the PC is on, on a decline, and the innovation that people are starting to pour into the mobile devices, primarily phones, and something that's going to obviously change over time when you see things like Adobe…”
Steven Sinofsky Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 11:21 a16z Podcast | When Your PC Expires, What's Next?
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Insight
Sinofsky: Platform killer apps are only recognized in hindsight and take decades
“Going back historically, like things that were killer apps are always like in hindsight. Like, it's not like you knew right away that your PC was going to be good at making greeting cards or balancing your checkbook. It took decades for those things that, that…”
Steven Sinofsky Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:30 a16z Podcast | Apple Watch -- Looking for New Things Done in New Ways
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Opinion
Evans: Apple Watch won't fill a void like smartphones or PCs did
“And so asking, you know, what are the core use cases for this? Slightly misses the point, because it's not the one thing that you will own that fills this void in your life, the way a smartphone did, or a PC did.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:27 a16z Podcast | Apple Watch -- Looking for New Things Done in New Ways
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Assertion Supported
Evans: Mobile shift expands computing market from 1.5B PCs to 5B smartphones
“We're going through a kind of generational shift from the PC being the dominant computing platform to mobile being the dominant computing platform. And that comes with it a shift from there being about one and a half billion PCs on earth to four or five billio…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 23:54 a16z Podcast | The Rise of the Quasi-IPO
Jan 2, 2019
Insight
Bansal: Mobile drives impulse purchases while research-heavy buys happen on PC
“Anything that is far more impulse driven, where you can just have a look and make a purchase decision, people are ok buying on the mobile. But there are many things which are very research oriented purchases where, hey, if you want to buy, let's say a laptop, …”
Rohit Bansal Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 30:33 a16z Podcast | E-commerce, Payments, & More in India's Evolving Retail Landscape
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sinofsky: PCs could enter their most profitable 20 years post-peak
“Yeah, and so, so we're in this space now where it could very well be that the PC sees its most profitable 20 years, but yet the least number of people thinking about it, or worried about it, or investing in it, and the least amount of change.”
Steven Sinofsky Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:16 a16z Podcast | The $200 PC in the Enterprise
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Shankar: Total Oculus setup costs dropped over 50% in 18 months
“The PC, the headset, anything that you need, it's now more than half the price. That's a significant drop in a year, year and a half.”
Darshan Shankar Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:07 a16z Podcast | When Is VR's iPhone Moment?
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Assertion Supported
Hennessy: Bell Labs and Xerox missed major economic gains from key inventions
“Bell Labs and AT&T were not the major beneficiaries of the discovery of the transistor. Xerox was not the major beneficiary of the discoverer of modern personal computing, right?”
John Hennessy Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 45:00 a16z Podcast | From Research to Startup, There and Back Again
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