The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 638 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Laqua: Employees taking weekends off have no place at Corgi
“If your days off happen to be Saturday and Sunday every week, then you will not have a place at Corgi.”
Lemkin: A $100 billion startup exit will happen within a year
“The big exits will solve it, right? The whizzes and the, I mean, we thought whizz was big. Now we have cursor. Now I'm going to win the bet of a hundred billion dollar exit in the next year.”
O'Driscoll: Oracle will lay off 20k to 30k employees over AI capex strain
“The only person that's even struggling slightly to cover their nut is Oracle, right? Because they had the weakest balance sheet and the least compelling use case, which is why at some point they're going to throw 20 or 30,000 people over the side to make the P…”
Andrew Ng: Artificial general intelligence is decades or longer away
“So this phantom AGI, someday with AI, they can do everything a human can do. I think we're very far away from that. I would say, you know, like decades away, maybe even longer.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI misses next year's revenue target by 40% if growth matches Google
“If all OpenAI is, Is just as good as Google, then it's going to miss its number next year by about 40%.”
ByteDance Will Delay TikTok Action Until After the US Presidential Election
“Likely, and I have no inside information here, I think ByteDance waits for the election, because they presume that Trump could get bought off by investors since, you know, he's a coin-operated person in his entire life, not just as in his presidency.”
Carney: Long-Term Interest Rates Will Rise Notably This Decade
“I believe that very central banker-y answer, but I believe long-term interest rates are going to rise, notably this decade. I long felt that we were in a low for long, and I felt that for a long time. I was right about it for a long time. Now I feel that there…”
Lee predicts an imminent, massive crash in the ICO market
“So I fear that there's going to be a huge crash in the whole ICO market sometime soon.”
Lemkin: AI agents render Marketo, Outreach, and Salesloft worthless
“They're not going to recommend Marketo for your agent to do marketing automation, ok? In fact, it mocked Marketo outreach and sales loft as tools useless to agents. Ok, this API grid. They said there is no place in the, an agent will never send an email throug…”
Lemkin: US government will block Anthropic indefinitely regardless of court rulings
“The government's going to say you're either going to agree to this or we're going to freeze you out of the US economy. And it doesn't matter what a court says. Because they'll come up with another justification. There'll be another one. There'll be a different…”
Lemkin: Fortune 500 will actively replace human employees with AI by year-end
“By the end of this year, that, that train is going to be so far out of the station that, that these growth numbers will be jaw dropping because we will decide enterprises will the fortune 500 or global 2000 will decide we are replacing humans with AI.”
O'Driscoll: US fintechs will use anti-China messaging against foreign rivals
“Competitors are going to be the people who use it first. Because if I was an all-American fintech company, I'd have my all-American flag out there and say, these guys are a bunch of commies. They have commies looking at your data. We're, you know, our stuff is…”
Taneja: Anthropic's enterprise business will be bigger than OpenAI's
“I think their enterprise business I'd argue will be bigger than OpenAI if it already isn't already not having spent that much.”
David protein bars will hit $100M revenue in first year
“And then with David, he's raised eighty-five million dollars from Green Oaks, Peter Atiyah, Andrew Huberman, and in their first year alone, they're gonna do a hundred million dollars in revenue.”
Hoffman: DOGE has zero chance of cutting $2T without defense cuts
“There is next to zero chance that the missions that they have declared will be successful because the only way to get two trillion out of the budget would be to massively reduce the deficit and reduce defense spending.”
Benioff: Salesforce Will Reduce Support Engineer Headcount in 2025
“We will have less support engineers next year because we have an agentic layer”
Marc Benioff Predicts AGI Will Not Be Achieved in 2025
“I don't think we are in AGI in twenty-twenty-five, so I think that's an optimistic thought.”
Stebbings: 2021 Venture Vintage Will Show Poor Returns Amid Inflated Valuations
“I'm pretty worried for venture as an asset class. I think 21 will be some pretty bad numbers and a really shitty vintage, and I think people are artificially keeping numbers high, and I don't think LPs have quite the understanding of how bad it is.”
Narayanan: Restricting global access to AI models will fail
“Even if one country decides that models should be closed, the odds of getting every country to enact that kind of, ah, ah, rule are, you know, just vanishingly small. So if our approach to safety with AI is going to be premised on ensuring that quote unquote b…”
Peets rejects sales reps unwilling to make a 30-minute commute
“If a sales inside salesperson is not willing to make the sacrifice of a 30 minute commute every day to further his own career, I don't want that person.”
Mollick: Open-source AI safety guardrails will be breached immediately
“And I do think that open models will immediately have their guardrails breached.”
Eisenberg predicts more private equity software investments will see Pluralsight-style zeroes
“I'm not concerned. I'm certain. It's happening.”
Billy Hult predicts Donald Trump will win the presidential election
“I think he will, and I, you know, it starts with he can, but I think it ends with he will.”
Rabois: Ramp will beat Brex and become 10x more valuable
“Ramp is absolutely going to be the winner. Probably will be two, three, four, five, 10 times more valuable.”
Maples: High-Priced Seed Deals Like Character.ai Won't Return 100x
“Expensive, high-priced investment, and hopefully it works, but you're not going to make a thousand times your money on that deal. You're probably not going to make a hundred times your money, even in the best of circumstances.”
Kohli: A tech startup M&A acquisition spree will not happen
“The appetite to Just do rapid set of acquisitions in this market. I don't think it's going to happen. And then in the private markets the key question that's going to come up is what price do you believe? Right? Meaning if you're a private company and you've r…”
Singerman predicts Founders Fund's $200M Anduril check will turn into $2B
“Enduro is going to be an extremely valuable company. I am, there's, yes, quite sure of that. We are not going to lose that two hundred million dollar check. That two hundred million dollars will turn into, you know, two billion.”
Ehrenberg: Tiger Global and Coatue face horrific portfolio markdowns ahead
“You know, their mark to market now, the next couple of years is going to be horrific. They're going to see huge markdowns on a huge swath of their companies, a bunch of stuff that they had counted on to go public isn't going to go public.”
Harry Stebbings predicts the quick commerce market will become a graveyard
“I don't think it's going to be like a As many winners as you think it is, I think it's going to be a bit of a graveyard.”
Cuban refuses to invest in venture-backed companies that buy market share
“The type of investments I won't do or don't do is ones where companies buy sales. So this is going to be a company that has to raise five hundred million to do one hundred million in sales because they want to own market share. And then they can get an exit be…”
Marks: A period of market distress will occur by 2025
“The bull market is 11 years old. If there's not one in the next five years, that means we'll have gone 16, which would be a record by a wide margin. So my guess is that in the next five years, we'll have a period of distress, and my hope is that Oak Tree will …”
Midha: In five years, most people will spend their time offline
“I believe that most people five years from now will spend the bulk of their time offline, not online.”
Meir in 2019: Tesla will become a $1 trillion company
“I believe that Tesla will be a trillion dollar company.”
Startup fundraising will shift to crypto tokens within 10 years
“I actually think in 10 years, some of the craziness will level out. And maybe it's not on Bitcoin, but maybe it's on another token or so, that you will see fundraisers done differently in 10 years.”
Retail investors will lose a ton of money in ICOs
“So they scare me. I think there's going to be some really great ones, but I think people are going to lose a ton of money, like, and just everyday people. Whenever there's so much money going around, and people think they can make a quick buck, and there's a l…”
Esports will draw a larger global audience than the NFL by 2022
“I do. Based on the underlying data today and how accessible it is to people, I do believe it will be larger, certainly, than the NFL.”
Schuler: Up to 50% of tech IPOs will be flat or down
“So you'll see, I think, flat and down IPO rounds. Maybe up to 50% of the companies that are out there.”
Uretsky: Apple will never match iPhone scale with another product category
“So when I read online about, you know, all of these different pundits talking about, you know, what's Apple's next big thing, my answer is there isn't one, because it has nothing to do with Apple. It has to do with the market. If you can't Find another thing t…”
Former Yahoo executive Marvin Liao predicts the company is 'toast'
“If I'm honest, I think they're probably toast. It's a one point O company in a three point O world. I just, I'm very skeptical. And this isn't anything against Marissa, but I just think it's just, it was such a mess when I left and I probably take some credit …”
O'Driscoll: Zero chance VCs return capital from blocked Manus deal
“The investors who've gotten their capital out, the chances of them having to or being willing to return that capital are zero.”
O'Driscoll: Private equity will no longer provide 3x revenue fallback exits
“You can't build a company big enough to go public. Strategics don't care. So you can sell this thing for three X revenues to fill in the PE from. That's not going to be true going forward.”
Levie: Enterprises cannot shift AI liability to providers like Anthropic
“I promise you, you're not going to be able to blame Anthropic when something goes wrong. And so if you can't blame Anthropic when something goes wrong, then at some point it doesn't really work to tell the company, like to tell your customer, well, That, that …”
O'Driscoll: AI labs will throttle subscriptions and hike prices for compute
“You're going to see some compute rationally, people are going to start allocating tokens to the highest, effectively the highest bidder. You're going to see a lot of throttling, like, you're going to see these plans, like, that's why they shot Sora. You're goi…”
Lemkin: Elon Musk will force underwriters to meet SpaceX target IPO valuation
“I think Elon, what Elon said Publicly on X, it ain't going to be two trillion. Maybe he'll change his mind. He said two trillion was too high. So whatever his number is, I think he's going to get it on IPO day. He's going to will it into existence. The underwr…”
O'Driscoll: Meta will lay off employees to fund Nvidia hardware purchases
“And that depreciation is going to start hitting, and they're going to be firing people because they need to give it to Jensen.”
O'Driscoll: Growth investors will pay 100x revenue again as capital floods back
“Now the wall of money has come back in, and I'm sure growth will go to the same thing again, which is, Evan will pay A hundred times run rate revenues for late stage stuff they think is growing quickly, just as in 21 people thought they were growing quickly, a…”
Clements: Cursor will build specialized coding models for enterprise users
“Cursor is going to build specialized coding models that are going to serve specialized coding tasks, especially for a lot of enterprise users.”
Zinman: Public SaaS companies will match AI startups in agentic work
“On one hand, I see people excited about private companies because they build tools in the AI era that kind of captured the, what I've referred to as doing the work, but I'll tell you a secret. You know, public companies will do it as well. We're going to do it…”