The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9,132 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 128 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Steckman: Anduril builds cruise missile airframes like bathtubs using contract manufacturers
“The cruise missile we build, the actual airframe is built like you build a bathtub. And so we can take advantage of tons of contract manufacturers in the United States that can actually build a bathtub, right?”
Steckman: Legacy defense primes get paid to fix mistakes, unlike Anduril
“A lot of our competitors, the really big ones, if they make a mistake, They get paid to fix it. I think if we make a mistake, we lose money, and we lose contracts, so.”
Mitchell Green: 98% of VC and PE investors have never run a company
“I've never run a company in my life. By the way, nor have, like, 98% of venture investors or private equity investors.”
Lemkin: Every tech CEO believes they can cut 40% of staff
“Every single CEO I talked to doesn't think they need 40% of their team.”
Stebbings: Cursor doubled revenue from $1B to $2B in three months
“Cursor announces their movement from a billion to two billion in revenue in, in three months. Rumors of secondary round being done at fifty billion.”
Monday.com replaced 100-person inbound SDR team with AI agents
“We had a team of about a hundred SDRs and we now doing, doing it with agents. A hundred percent is being done with agents. We move those SDRs to do outbound.”
Lemkin: Palantir is the only public B2B firm with a competitive agent
“If you look at all the publicly traded B&B companies, there's only one that has a competitive agent. It's Palantir.”
Swisher: Anthropic reached $9B ARR while growing 800%
“If you look at Anthropic, right, publicly available numbers, nine billion of ARR growing 800%.”
Lemkin: Anthropic revenue surged to 64% of OpenAI's in 14 months
“Anthropic said it's hundred K customers are up seven X in the last year. So there's not enough time to steal deals. Having said that, going from five percent of OpenAI's revenue to 64% in 14 months, that is stealing budget.”
Lemkin: Peak XV almost imploded because the managing partner hoarded economics
“I mean, peak, peak 15 almost imploded, right? Because the managing partner wanted to keep all the economics, right?”
Lemkin: Chamath Palihapitiya has been sued by all his former partners
“Chamath, all his ex-partners have sued him. Mamoon sued them. The Grok guys he sued.”
Lemkin: AI compute capacity and revenue have a direct 1:1 correlation
“Compute and revenue have a one-to-one correlation. So as long as that holds, it makes sense to consume every single penny of capital on all of Planet Earth.”
Harry Stebbings says Claude Code cannibalized Cursor's business overnight
“Claude Code, Has cannibalized a lot of Cursor's business overnight and everyone's canceling Cursor.”
Lemkin: The shelf life of a state-of-the-art LLM is under 100 days
“There is a very simple bear case that it goes almost to zero which is that shelf life of an LLM is less than a hundred days.”
Chad Peet: Fired sales reps in France and Germany stay on payroll for a year
“Go to Germany and France, I can't fire people. Like, dude, they're on, I, they'll be on the books for a year after you want to get rid of them.”
Peet: No Company Can Compete With xAI on Compute Infrastructure
“Ultimately, this is going to come down to compute, and there's nobody going to compete with us in compute.”
Chang: Energy companies claiming 100% renewable tariffs are lying
“So any energy company that's claiming their harm sent renewables is a complete lie. Right. They're simply buying renewable certificates, right, to claim the harm sent renewables, and it's completely false.”
O'Driscoll: Enterprise AI revenue is $16B vs $400B in CapEx
“End users in the enterprises are spending about fundamental data 15, sixteen billion dollars on AI. And the people who make AI are spending four hundred billion dollars on quote, making AI, right?”
a16z's larger venture funds consistently outperform its smaller funds
“Our funds consistently beat small, large, Diversified, concentrated venture funds. So our larger funds have outperformed our smaller ones, and our larger ones actually have similar multiples of money to our smaller ones across, across strategies.”
Lemkin: Drift Is Completely Dead After Being Banned by Salesforce
“They kicked Drift off five months ago. Drift will never come back. It is dead. It is completely dead.”
Parker Conrad unfairly took the fall for non-ethical Zenefits mistakes
“I think there were some small mistakes made, but they were company-wide. They were under all departments, not just his. Everyone knew about it. They weren't ethical mistakes, and he sort of, you know, took the fall.”
Tunguz: Nvidia revenue concentration is 10x worse than Lucent during dot-com bubble
“So Nvidia, two customers for Nvidia represent more than 40% of revenues. Four percent represent more than 50% of revenues. I went back and looked at the dot-com era, the networking companies. NVIDIA is 10 times more concentrated in terms of revenue than Lucent…”
O'Driscoll: Companies can replace $40k employees with $10k AI agents
“There are areas where right here, right now, you can replace a 40,000 dollar worker with a 10,000 dollar a year agent and be better off.”
Lemkin: Sam Altman receives zero equity in OpenAI's corporate restructuring
“They're a little interesting, but the craziest thing in this deal, because it's unprecedented, I think in our lifetimes is OpenAI said that Sam Altman will still have no shares in the combined entity.”
Stebbings: Mercor hit $500M revenue run rate in 17 months
“Now this company has gone to five hundred million in revenue, faster than anyone else, I believe, in history. I think it was 17 months.”
O'Driscoll: AI model companies spend $300B to $400B on compute
“Because if you think about it, these model companies have grown faster than any company in human history. They're spending three, four hundred billion dollars on compute. They're probably spending three, four billion dollars on RLHF, and they were spending zer…”
O'Driscoll: Venture returns over last 5 years massively trailed public markets
“The truth is the venture return over the last five years has been massively lower than the public market returns.”
Calacanis: AI companies built models by stealing all my copyrighted content
“Just like in the beginning to get these off the ground, we had to trample copyrights and destroy everyone's IP rights. All of my IP is stolen. Everything I've written, all my videos were taken without my consent.”
Lloyd: Anthropic API Margins Are 60%, OpenAI Margins Are 50%
“Anthropic has a big margin on their API business right now. What I've heard is 60% margin on Anthropic's API. I've heard 50% on OpenAI.”
Lemkin: AI Agents Replaced Almost All SaaStr Sales and Content Teams
“I Vibe Coded eight apps in a hundred days, and we have 12 AI agents working at Sastra now. Replaced all, almost all of our sales team and our whole content team.”
O'Driscoll: Sam Altman took 10% of AMD for chip purchasing privileges
“Sam Altman understands power. He has more power than AMD, so he took 10% of their company for the privilege of selling stuff to him.”
No Company Ever Went Bankrupt by Overpaying Extraordinary Talent
“No company ever went bankrupt by paying extraordinary people too much.”
Feldman: Cerebras chips are faster than Nvidia at both training and inference
“No, we're faster on both, but the software challenges In training are real.”
Ross: NVIDIA will produce ~5.5M GPUs this year despite 50M die capacity
“If Nvidia wanted to, they could build fifty million of those GPU die, Per year. But they're going to build about 5.5 million GPUs this year.”
Ross: Chinese AI models cost 10x more to run than US open-source
“The cost to run the OSS model is about one-tenth that of the Chinese models.”
Jason Lemkin claims hot AI deals involve zero due diligence
“Any hot AI deal, there is no diligence provided, nor is any done. It's just done on Saturday.”
Mercor scaled from $1M to $500M run rate in 17 months
“We scaled the business from one to five hundred million in the last 17 months, which is the fastest revenue growth of all time. One month faster than Cursor's time.”
Lemkin: VCs Are No Longer Attempting Due Diligence
“Venture rounds are all getting done on Saturdays. Forget about no diligence being done two years ago. Now diligence isn't even being attempted.”
Lemkin: OpenAI Stole YouTube Videos to Train AI Models
“This isn't even stealing YouTube videos like OpenAI did.”
Staniszewski: ElevenLabs' Eastern European team worked harder than US West Coast hires
“I think you can find people that want to work harder, and we've had it actually at some point a team where we hired some people from west coast of US and our people where we have quite a few from central eastern Europe where like, oh yeah, they don't work actu…”
Alex Schultz admits Meta's Llama 4 missed the leading edge
“It's pretty clear Llama was not, like, Llama four wasn't leading edge where Llama three was. So, you know, our big release this year was not a slam dunk, but our big release last year was, and I'm pretty confident our next big release will be again.”
O'Driscoll: AI scaling laws unlocked $600B in annual CapEx spend
“I think I underestimated the impact of A, the scaling laws in AI and B, the ability of primarily Altman and some other folks to inspire belief in those scaling laws and unlock six hundred billion of CapEx spend a year.”
Legora paused all sales for four months after $25M Series A
“I turned to Redpoint and to Benchmark, and I said, we're not going to sell for the next four months, because if we sell and we start onboarding all these great attorneys, they're not going to have the best experience. And they're going to think that the produc…”
Junestrand: Harvey is price-cutting Legora in enterprise AI sales battles
“No, but the other thing is happening. It's the other way around.”
Stebbings: Midas List investors did not do the deals they claim
“I look at the Midas list, and none of the people on that did the deals that they said they did.”
Halligan: Morgan Stanley and Fidelity aligned to lower HubSpot's IPO price
“I don't think there was collusion going on, but definitely Morgan Stanley and Fidelity were on the same side of the table trying to get us to sell at a lower price.”
Rory O'Driscoll: Figma Did Not Leave $3 Billion on Table in IPO
“The people who said, oh, Figma left three billion dollars on the table because they could have got 95 dollars a share, are talking out of their ass. Because I can guarantee you, the order book, I think it was one of the prices, 35, 38, whatever it was, there w…”