The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 4,077 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
O'Driscoll: Enterprise AI revenue is $16B vs $400B in CapEx
“End users in the enterprises are spending about fundamental data 15, sixteen billion dollars on AI. And the people who make AI are spending four hundred billion dollars on quote, making AI, right?”
O'Driscoll: US fintechs will use anti-China messaging against foreign rivals
“Competitors are going to be the people who use it first. Because if I was an all-American fintech company, I'd have my all-American flag out there and say, these guys are a bunch of commies. They have commies looking at your data. We're, you know, our stuff is…”
Lemkin: Sam Altman receives zero equity in OpenAI's corporate restructuring
“They're a little interesting, but the craziest thing in this deal, because it's unprecedented, I think in our lifetimes is OpenAI said that Sam Altman will still have no shares in the combined entity.”
O'Driscoll: AI model companies spend $300B to $400B on compute
“Because if you think about it, these model companies have grown faster than any company in human history. They're spending three, four hundred billion dollars on compute. They're probably spending three, four billion dollars on RLHF, and they were spending zer…”
O'Driscoll: Venture returns over last 5 years massively trailed public markets
“The truth is the venture return over the last five years has been massively lower than the public market returns.”
Ross: NVIDIA will produce ~5.5M GPUs this year despite 50M die capacity
“If Nvidia wanted to, they could build fifty million of those GPU die, Per year. But they're going to build about 5.5 million GPUs this year.”
Taneja: Anthropic's enterprise business will be bigger than OpenAI's
“I think their enterprise business I'd argue will be bigger than OpenAI if it already isn't already not having spent that much.”
Lemkin: OpenAI Stole YouTube Videos to Train AI Models
“This isn't even stealing YouTube videos like OpenAI did.”
O'Driscoll: AI scaling laws unlocked $600B in annual CapEx spend
“I think I underestimated the impact of A, the scaling laws in AI and B, the ability of primarily Altman and some other folks to inspire belief in those scaling laws and unlock six hundred billion of CapEx spend a year.”
David protein bars will hit $100M revenue in first year
“And then with David, he's raised eighty-five million dollars from Green Oaks, Peter Atiyah, Andrew Huberman, and in their first year alone, they're gonna do a hundred million dollars in revenue.”
Halligan: Morgan Stanley and Fidelity aligned to lower HubSpot's IPO price
“I don't think there was collusion going on, but definitely Morgan Stanley and Fidelity were on the same side of the table trying to get us to sell at a lower price.”
Databricks rejected a $10M on-premise deal from JPMorgan to stay cloud-only
“They're like, we'll give you ten million bucks to put this, and at the time, we're less than a million, like our whole first-year target's like ten million, to put it on-prem. And Ali was like, no way, we're not doing anything on-prem.”
Cognition added roughly $80M in run-rate revenue in six to eight months
“Yeah, look, I don't want to get into exact numbers, but even with the windsurf deal aside, like not including that at all, we are basically, we've done roughly that as well in the last six to eight months.”
Flanagan: ChatGPT scrapes 1,500 web pages for every single referral visit
“Six months ago, it was 250 pieces of content scraped, and they give you one visit back. Today, it's 1500 pieces of content scraped, and they give you one visit back.”
Galloway: Young Americans transfer $1.3T yearly to seniors via Social Security
“Every year, young people transfer 1.3 trillion dollars in the form of Social Security payments to the wealthiest generation in the history of the planet, seniors.”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic's burn dropped from $5B last year to $3B this year
“Seeing the, you know, the strong performance from Antropic in terms of top line growth, and then just looking at the burn, you know, five last year going to three this year.”
Lemkin: Oracle closed a $30 billion annual deal with OpenAI
“Oracle just closed a thirty billion dollar a year deal with open AI, right? An extra thirty billion.”
Lemkin: OpenAI has a 67% two-year employee retention rate
“67% retention rate employees after two years.”
Hinrikus: The vast majority of European VC partners lack operating experience
“I, you know, I've said many times is that if you look at the European landscape, majority, vast majority of the European GPs have not spent a single day working in a real company. They've worked in consulting firms, banks, but they haven't worked in a real ope…”
Stan Boland: UK's £30B annual tech funding yields virtually no results
“This, 20, thirty billion a year that we pump in at the front end per annum in tech. So, like, a hundred and fifty billion over a parliament in university funding for science and tech, in SEIS, in EIS, in VCTs, in R&D tax credits, and patent box, and so on. All…”
Feldman: Cerebras Is First to Yield Whole Wafers in Computing History
“And that had never been done in a computer before, and that's at the heart of our architecture. That allowed us to yield and deliver whole wafers. Nobody had ever been able to do that in the seventy-year history of our industry.”
Stebbings: Klarna is not replacing all of its SaaS with AI
“And we have companies like Klarna who are saying, oh, we're replacing all of our SaaS with AI. They're not, they're absolutely not. And they won't.”
Ross: NVIDIA used misleading benchmark curves to claim 30x GPU speedup
“Like, if you look at the last GTC, there was an announcement that the latest GPUs were 30 x faster than the previous generation. And when you look at how it was done, there was this curve that looked kind of like this, and then it Basically ended here, and the…”
Ross: Southeast Asian GPU deployments secretly serve Chinese firms
“One of the concerns right now is about Malaysia or Singapore, that region over there being a place where people are deploying GPUs with the wink, wink, like we're not going to rent it to China, right? But that's a belief that a lot of people are doing that. Ot…”
Odoo bans recurring meetings to avoid traditional managers
“I forbid the recurring meeting at the company. They can do meetings. But on the job, or for specific tasks, or trainings, but not recurring meeting. I mean, recurring meeting is a way to manage people, and we try to avoid managers. We want team leaders that wo…”
Pishevar: Holder's investigation report found no personal wrongdoing by Kalanick
“And the report, by the way, didn't find anything wrong that, you know, Travis did, or I did, or there was nothing, nothing in there about, you know, him, you know, directly and the recommendation was like to go hire a Sheryl Sandberg, like a chief operating of…”
Maples: The federal $40B broadband initiative has created zero broadband connections
“We've passed some, what was it? Forty billion dollar build broadband, better bullshit bill that nobody's built any broadband connections I'm aware of.”
Hoffman: DOGE has zero chance of cutting $2T without defense cuts
“There is next to zero chance that the missions that they have declared will be successful because the only way to get two trillion out of the budget would be to massively reduce the deficit and reduce defense spending.”
Benioff: Salesforce Will Reduce Support Engineer Headcount in 2025
“We will have less support engineers next year because we have an agentic layer”
Marc Benioff Predicts AGI Will Not Be Achieved in 2025
“I don't think we are in AGI in twenty-twenty-five, so I think that's an optimistic thought.”
Stebbings: 2021 Venture Vintage Will Show Poor Returns Amid Inflated Valuations
“I'm pretty worried for venture as an asset class. I think 21 will be some pretty bad numbers and a really shitty vintage, and I think people are artificially keeping numbers high, and I don't think LPs have quite the understanding of how bad it is.”
Villig: VCs refused to invest in Bolt at $25M ARR
“We probably got to the point of doing about twenty-five million ARR, growing multiple hundred percent a year, and still no VCs wanted to invest.”
Grimm: The West lacks munitions capacity for a prolonged nation-state war
“The US right now does not have the production capacity, nor does the UK, nor does Australia, kind of the West at large, to make enough munitions to fully equip a prolonged nation on nation conflict.”
Vlad Tenev: Robinhood received a $3B deposit demand during GameStop saga
“We got this we got this bill in the automated clearinghouse system for three billion dollars.”
Kolter: AI models contain an unpatchable buffer overflow vulnerability
“This is sort of like these models have a buffer overflow in all of them that we know about, and most importantly, that we don't know how to patch and fix. We don't know how to fix this yet with models”
Narayanan: Restricting global access to AI models will fail
“Even if one country decides that models should be closed, the odds of getting every country to enact that kind of, ah, ah, rule are, you know, just vanishingly small. So if our approach to safety with AI is going to be premised on ensuring that quote unquote b…”
Peets rejects sales reps unwilling to make a 30-minute commute
“If a sales inside salesperson is not willing to make the sacrifice of a 30 minute commute every day to further his own career, I don't want that person.”
Mollick: Open-source AI safety guardrails will be breached immediately
“And I do think that open models will immediately have their guardrails breached.”
Grady: 10 years of Sequoia data shows consensus doesn't drive startup outcomes
“So we have actual data on this going back to 20 14 where we started recording the votes numerically on every single investment. So we have about 10 years worth, which believe it or not is not conclusive because there are so few outliers that have emerged even …”
Eisenberg predicts more private equity software investments will see Pluralsight-style zeroes
“I'm not concerned. I'm certain. It's happening.”
Siroker: Top VC funds will break ownership minimums for hot startups
“Yeah, the best investors benchmark and recent, they will invest less than their supposed minimums for the right company.”
Billy Hult predicts Donald Trump will win the presidential election
“I think he will, and I, you know, it starts with he can, but I think it ends with he will.”
Rabois: Ramp will beat Brex and become 10x more valuable
“Ramp is absolutely going to be the winner. Probably will be two, three, four, five, 10 times more valuable.”
Lacaillade: Founders Fund, a16z, Greenoaks, and Thrive proactively marked down valuations
“In my core relationships Founders Fund's the most extreme, because Peter Thiel's very contrarian and he wants to reset the mindset of his team. Which I think is great. But Andreessen Horowitz, Green Oaks Thrive, they've all proactively marked down their compan…”
Shebat: Traba requires 12-hour in-office workdays Monday through Thursday
“So what it means in practice at Trava is we're all committed to at least 12 hour days, Monday through Thursday. Friday, we're working late, but people do tend to go out on, on Friday night. But it's an in-office culture”