why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2030
Lawson: AI will decimate SaaS seat bases and human workflow roles
“The thing I would say though about any company in SAS today, and Atlassian is a Prime example of this is they are primed for, ah, disruption right now because AI is going to decimate their seat base for their products. It'll decimate the roles people are playi…”
Opinion
Lemkin calls 'roll your own' SaaS trend dumbest in his career
“The idea that the roll your own initiative, I think is the dumbest thing I've seen in SAS in my career.”
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Almost everything that could be done in SaaS has been done
“Anything that could have been done 20 years ago in SAS probably has been done. So I'm not rooting around in SAS land looking for a good deal, right?”
Insight
Kellogg: Pitched against competitor hunters, SaaS customer success farmers always lose
“The single biggest sin in SAS is putting your farmer against someone else's hunter, right? Cause they will lose.”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: SaaS stocks trade at historic discount to S&P 500
“SAS now trades at a discount to the S&P 500 for the first time in history.”
Insight
Howie Liu: Utility SaaS tools have no upper bound and can coexist
“And so I think like, especially since in SAS and these productivity or utility oriented areas, like there's no upper bound to how many new services can come out and create additive value. Like with consumer social, for instance, there was a finite amount of ti…”
Insight
Caldbeck: Dedicated sector focus yields vastly superior VC pattern recognition
“If you're spending a hundred percent of your time looking at certain types of consumer companies, you can't help but pattern match in a better way than if you're spending 20% of your time on SAS and 15% of your time being a second partner on someone's, you kno…”
Assertion Supported
Ralston: Paul Graham's Viaweb was the first web SaaS business
“They had created really the first SAS business On the web at the time, which was an online shopping cart.”