The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 60 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Nvidia Conceals Massive Chip Field Failure Rates to Keep Customers Waiting
“You don't talk about the field failure rate of your products, which are massive. Rather you sort of keep talking about the future in an effort to convince people to wait, to make a good decision rather than go with technology that's, that that's better and pre…”
US government owns 10% of Intel, Nvidia and SoftBank 5% each
“American government owns 10% of Intel. Nvidia and SoftBank own five percent each.”
Feldman: Cerebras chips are faster than Nvidia at both training and inference
“No, we're faster on both, but the software challenges In training are real.”
Ross: NVIDIA will produce ~5.5M GPUs this year despite 50M die capacity
“If Nvidia wanted to, they could build fifty million of those GPU die, Per year. But they're going to build about 5.5 million GPUs this year.”
Ross: NVIDIA used misleading benchmark curves to claim 30x GPU speedup
“Like, if you look at the last GTC, there was an announcement that the latest GPUs were 30 x faster than the previous generation. And when you look at how it was done, there was this curve that looked kind of like this, and then it Basically ended here, and the…”
Mostaque: Only 5 or 6 foundation model companies will exist in 3-5 years
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. I think it's going to be us, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
Weitzman: NVIDIA guarantees 25% GPU buybacks with Wall Street lenders
“So I believe earlier this month, NVIDIA did a huge deal with Blackstone, BlackRock, Apollo, and Goldman Sachs. And they said, listen, we want more people to buy more GPUs. We're going to underwrite for you up to 25% the value of a GPU. That if you lend money t…”
Weitzman: Renting an H100 GPU costs 1.5 times more than buying it
“If I was to buy an H 100 for, let's say, 30,000 dollars, that's how much the, kind of, a single card would cost. If I wanted to rent an H 100 for one hour spot instance from GCP, it could cost me five dollars. If I rented it from, like, You know, Azure or AWS,…”
O'Driscoll: Nvidia Recognizes Hardware Revenue Upfront Under ASC 606 With Put-Back Rights
“They're basically, quote, selling you the chips up front, so they are going to recognize that hardware revenue up front, and then they're giving you, as the buyer, the NeoCloud, a backstop that if you can't use that compute, you get kind of put back rights on …”
O'Driscoll: Nvidia's $50B Quarterly Profit Makes It World's Most Profitable
“It's the 50 something billion in profits, which makes it the most profitable company on the planet, because typically Google clocks in around a hundred to a hundred and twenty billion now a year. Right? These guys, in a quarter, made fifty billion plus, fifty-…”
O'Driscoll: NVIDIA issued a document committing up to $100B to OpenAI
“There's a piece of paper. With the NVIDIA logo on it that said we'll do up to a hundred billion, and they put it out there, and now they're like, where's my hundred billion?”
O'Driscoll: Nvidia puts will eventually be a great buy due to cycles
“At some point, NVIDIA ports will be a great buy, because every semiconductor cycle for the last 40 years has ended up in a massive downswing. I ain't buying them today.”
Nvidia Charges Gross Margins Between 78% and 85% on High-End Chips
“Well, because they want to get rid of the 78% gross margin that NVIDIA is charging. That's why it makes sense. Just like that. It might be, on the high-end chips, 85%.”
Ross: NVIDIA effectively holds a monopsony on High Bandwidth Memory
“The thing is, Nvidia effectively has a monopsony on HBM.”
Ross: NVIDIA Will Sell Every Single GPU It Builds
“NVIDIA's gonna sell every single GPU that they build.”
Ross: NVIDIA will keep selling chips despite AI labs building custom silicon
“NVIDIA still keeps selling chips.”
Feldman: Cerebras deployed more exaflops than anyone except Nvidia and AMD
“We, we've deployed tens of exaflops of compute vastly more than anybody else that, that, that isn't AMD or NVIDIA, right?”
Morin: AMD GPUs achieve 4x inference throughput over Nvidia setups
“If you run on AMD, well, there's enough memory inside the GPU to run one model per card. So you get, you know, eight GPUs, eight times the throughput, while on the other hand, you get eight GPUs, two, you know, two, maybe two and a half times the throughput. S…”
Morin details profit margins across TSMC, Nvidia, and cloud providers
“Nvidia, like a TSMC sells you at 60% margin. Nvidia sells you at, you know, 90% margin. And on top of that, there's Amazon that takes, let's say a 30% margin.”
Morin: Switching from Nvidia to AMD offers 4x spend efficiency
“A simple example is if you know, switch from Nvidia to AMD on a seven TB model, you can get four times better efficiency, right? In terms of spend.”
Morin: Nvidia Blackwell chips suffered surface bending causing cooling issues
“For Blackwell, they assembled two chips. But the surface was so big that the chip started to, you know , wave, like, I don't know the English word, but like, you know, started to bend a bit, which further perpetuated the problem because it then didn't make con…”
Ross: NVIDIA holds a cornered resource as HBM monopsony buyer
“You don't normally think of tech companies as having a cornered resource, but Nvidia has a cornered resource. They're a monopsony, the opposite of a monopoly, a single buyer for HBM, and the Interposer, the COOS.”
Sivulka: AI shift from training to inference will destabilize Nvidia's dominance
“The shift away from training to inference as a fundamental, like, almost macro shift in how people deploy AI. I actually think that will destabilize slightly the dominance of NVIDIA chips.”
Benioff: Jensen Huang Was Sole Tech CEO to Pivot to Deep Learning
“He was the only large company, CEO in tech, who said, you know what? Deep learning is such a big idea, and this technology is pretty darn close, the GPU to what you need. I'm gonna pivot my whole company, and I'm just gonna be about deep learning. And he did t…”
Vishria: Nvidia will not remain the only major AI infrastructure player
“I don't believe NVIDIA is going to be the only game to have content infrastructure layer.”
Matt Clifford: Next US President Will Maintain Aggressive Nvidia Export Bans
“The one bipartisan issue in Washington Is screw China. And, you know, like, it's certainly true that I remember writing about in 20, you know, 1819, about, like, Trump export controls, and what's interesting is that the Biden White House has been as aggressive…”
Traynor: Nvidia won't be the sole GPU maker in five years
“I don't think NVIDIA in five years time will be sitting here proud as the only people who can do a GPU.”
Stebbings: Nvidia licenses Poolside factory for $6B, invests $1B at $12B
“NVIDIA is paying six billion dollars to license Poolside's model factory and investing a billion dollars more at a twelve billion dollar pre-money valuation, moving a 109 engineers over to NemoTron to help build it.”
O'Driscoll: Nvidia and TSMC Have No Written Contract Despite 30-Year Partnership
“You have the NVIDIA relationship with TSMC, which famously, they don't even have a written contract. They've dealt with each other for 30 years.”
Jain: Nvidia is heavily investing in US open-source AI model development
“There's a lot of motivated parties that actually want to promote, like, including NVIDIA, for example, You know, they're putting a lot of investment in promoting, like, you know, development of great open source models in the US.”
Lemkin: 7% of All Americans' Life Savings Are Concentrated in Nvidia
“Seven percent of all Americans life savings are essentially in Nvidia this morning with concentration.”
O'Driscoll: AI capex splits 50% to Nvidia, 20% to power and networking
“All these companies are on fire because the hyperscalers and the model companies have decided to spend, you know, roughly three quarters to a trillion dollars a year building shit, and 50% of that goes to Nvidia, 10% of that goes to power, 10% of that goes to …”
O'Driscoll: Nvidia makes $14B in raw profit per gigawatt of datacenter compute
“And NVIDIA's gross margins are 70%, which means fourteen billion of that per gig is raw profit to NVIDIA.”
Masad: Anthropic operates at 40% gross margins due to Nvidia chip costs
“Even, like, Anthropic, every hundred dollars they make, 60 goes to NVIDIA, like, you know, their margins are public, it's 40%, right?”
O'Driscoll: China represents 30% of market and $40B chip revenue for Nvidia
“30% of the entire market is in China. He wants to sell those guys Nvidia chips, and there's simply no argument on God's green earth that's going to convince him that he shouldn't get that forty billion dollars of revenue from shipping chips to China.”
O'Driscoll: Amazon's $20B Trainium business diverts nearly 10% of Nvidia's revenue
“But all that said, it's still twenty billion of dollars that didn't go to Nvidia that went to Amazon. So it is at the margin meaningful. It's 10% of kind of Nvidia's revenue, a little less than 10%. So it's, and so it's not a mega competitor. It's just an in-h…”
O'Driscoll: Nvidia's $1T soundbite merely matches analyst forecasts
“So it turns out if you add 504 hundred and then you apply a salesman's roundup, you get to a trillion dollars. Another way of translating that wonderful, amazing number of a trillion dollars is the analyst forecasts for the next two or three years look roughly…”
Lemkin: Jensen Huang closed NVIDIA's $20B Groq deal in two weeks
“He reached out to Jonathan Ross literally just weeks ago, and the deal closed for twenty billion within two weeks. And he told his whole team, I want it done before Christmas, and it was done ahead of time.”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic buys Broadcom chips to bypass Nvidia's 75% margins
“Why is Entropic buying chips from Broadcom? Answer. They don't want to pay 75% gross margins to Nvidia.”
Boland: NVIDIA Is Re-Architecting GPUs to Optimize for Inference
“They are making a bunch of architectural changes to GPUs to make them better and better inference.”
Ross: Inference Accounts For Roughly 40% Of Nvidia's Market
“Right now, about 40% of their, you know, market is inference.”
Brian Halligan notes Nvidia's Jensen Huang publicly criticizes his 50 direct reports
“One of the things he does is he criticizes in public. Okay, so he's got his team, he's got 40 direct reports, which is pretty weird, or 50 direct reports, and if somebody says somebody disagrees with or does something that he didn't like, he will in front of e…”
Eisenberg: Mellanox technology is the backbone for NVIDIA's AI scaling
“Yael Waldman's company Mellanox was purchased by NVIDIA, and that's really the backbone that enables NVIDIA to scale for AI.”
Nvidia Reported $96.2B Quarter and Acquired Hugging Face for $12.9B
“Jensen standing on stage with 96.2 billion dollar quarter and immediately went shopping nearing the thirteen billion dollar price tag with the 12.9 billion that they paid for hugging face, which was confirmed just after we did last week's recording.”
Nvidia Projected 70% Revenue Growth for Fiscal Year Ending Jan 2028
“And also, they took the rare step of projecting 70% revenue growth for next fiscal year, ending Jan 20 28, way above the 44% street expected.”
O'Driscoll: Only Nvidia and Google outperformed the S&P in last 18 months
“Over the last 18 months since 2025, only two of the Mag seven have outperformed the S&P. It's NVIDIA and Google”
Midha: AI Compute Is Non-Fungible Across Nvidia Chip Generations
“Computer is not fungible today. So forget fungibility of compute across different manufacturers, like NVIDIA and AMD. Within a manufacturer, NVIDIA chips, for example. The H 100, the GB 200, the GB 300, these are all completely different chip types. So if you …”