The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 48 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hulme: Microsoft acquired Inflection primarily for its 12,000 H100 GPU cluster
“I do not believe that Microsoft were buying the Pi model. I think Microsoft are GPU constrained, and we're buying a cluster of 12,000 H-one hundreds.”
Microsoft Board Approved $1B for OpenAI Despite Having No Clear Product
“The very first OpenAI Microsoft deal was, you know, Satya and Kevin Scott brought to the Microsoft board. We want to put a billion dollars into the investment in this vehicle. From a five one C three that doesn't really have any particular plans at making its …”
O'Driscoll: Microsoft's revenue growth is flat without its AI initiatives
“Without the AI initiative, Microsoft is flat revenue.”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic reports gross AWS revenue; OpenAI reports net Microsoft revenue
“There was this kind of whole meme of OpenAI reports net on their partner revenue and Entropic reports gross. And what they're saying there is if OpenAI sells through Microsoft and Microsoft takes some money off the top, OpenAI only reports the net amount. If A…”
Cahn: Microsoft walked away from two data centers in early 2025
“Microsoft walked away from two data centers and it sent a message to the market like, hey, we're not stepping up.”
Taneja: Microsoft generated the highest multiple return among OpenAI investors
“Taking that bet was hugely, hugely valuable for Microsoft. I think, and if you look at the return, by the way, if they put in twenty billion, they are the ones who have the highest multiple return as well. So it was a great investment on a financial basis and …”
Lemkin: Microsoft shifting default model choice to Anthropic across several products
“Microsoft I think today said they're moving not just parts of office to Anthropic, but that it is the default choice for several other products and that Microsoft today said several months ago, they told their teams to start using cloud code several months ago…”
O'Driscoll: AGI's arrival will be defined by Microsoft and OpenAI litigation
“My comment is we're going to hit AGI when Microsoft and OpenAI litigate what OpenAGI is.”
Kant: Poolside, OpenAI, and Anthropic will rival Big Tech in AI
“What I would like to see and what I think is going to happen is that it's not just Google, Amazon, and Microsoft. It's going to be, you know, an open eye, an anthropic, a poolside, and a set of companies who are able to get that massive escape velocity needed …”
Rory O'Driscoll: Microsoft compute spending will grow 30% next year
“Is Microsoft going to increase another 30% next year? Is Antropic going to invest in compute? And right now, all those answers to those questions are yes.”
O'Driscoll: Microsoft was the only investor to give OpenAI $1B in 2019
“No one else was writing open AI, a billion dollar check in 2019. Microsoft did, and they got that return.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI finalizes restructuring deals with Microsoft and state regulators
“The big news today is OpenAI cut their deal. They cut their deal with Microsoft, and they cut their deal with the attorneys general, the plural of attorney general of Delaware and California, which means they have been able to implement their restructuring, wh…”
O'Driscoll: Microsoft Achieved a 10x Return on its $13B OpenAI Investment
“They put in thirteen million, thirteen billion dollars. They got a 10 X on their money as of today.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI Will Buy Compute From Oracle If Cheaper Than Microsoft
“Do I think the Oracle will book a fair amount of cloud compute from OpenAI? Absolutely. Maybe not three hundred billion, but if he's willing to provide it at a lower price than Microsoft, my guess is those fine people at OpenAI will take it.”
Lemkin: Microsoft's OpenAI Deal Includes 10% Revenue Share Until AGI
“Getting everything they get plus 10% of all revenue until there's AGI plus the returns.”
Stebbings: Microsoft generates $350 million per day in free cash flow
“They don't have the cash flow capabilities of Microsoft doing three hundred and fifty million dollars a day in free cash flow.”
Quattrone: Salesforce submitted higher unsolicited bids during LinkedIn's exclusivity window with Microsoft
“So they went into like a 30 day exclusivity to try to get to definitive agreement. And during that period, Salesforce lobbed in Several offers that were higher. And that meant that towards the end of that period, we had to inform Microsoft, Hey, your deal is n…”
Quattrone: Microsoft and Salesforce submitted nearly identical bids at every stage for LinkedIn
“With LinkedIn, we had interest from several parties, but it really kind of came down to Microsoft and Salesforce. And I've never seen companies bid privately and come up with such close prices on every stage Like, 151 151 162 163. It was very, very close, and …”
Reber: Real-Time Sync Was the Primary Reason Microsoft Bought Wunderlist
“And it actually, in the end, it was the reason Microsoft bought us, because of the real-time synchronization we've had.”
Wunderlist will become Microsoft's core task layer and spread its startup culture
“Ah, so for me and Wunderlist, it is integrate deeply into, to Microsoft, be the layer that connects things in terms of tasks, things you need to get done, and continue to both learn from one of the largest, most important technology organizations ever, but als…”
Mignano: Incumbent tech companies will constrain employee token spend budgets
“There's too many employees at a Salesforce or I don't know, a Microsoft such that every employee can just have an unlimited token spend budget. So I think we're going to see a lot of those companies start to constrain their spends.”
Intuit TurboTax thrived despite Microsoft's 1990s Office bundling
“Microsoft tried to crush Intuit again and again and again, back in the eighties and nineties with bundling everything into office, but Intuit TurboTax survived and thrived.”
Green: Apple spends far less on AI CapEx than tech peers
“And, you know, like Apple's spending very little right now, you know, and those other three or four companies are spending insane amounts of money.”
Benioff: Microsoft holds only 3% CRM market share
“Why Microsoft has three percent CRM market share because of nonsense.”
Lemkin: OpenAI and Microsoft will settle antitrust tensions privately
“I don't think Microsoft wants to be sued by any trust. So I think it's going to get worked out.”
Stebbings: Microsoft generates $350 million in cash daily
“Microsoft is throwing off three hundred and fifty million in cash a day.”
Stebbings: Microsoft generates $350 million per day in free cash flow
“We've never had incumbents who throw off three hundred and fifty million a day in free cash flow like Microsoft does”
Sim: Microsoft's AI leadership will drive cloud market share and H2 revenue
“Because of their lead on everything AI that they're taking market share on the cloud side. So I think that that's going to drive a lot of their business. And I'm hoping that by the back half of the year, you know, you start seeing some of the revenue numbers r…”
Howie Liu: Microsoft Copilot Will Drive Significant ARPU Growth Across Office
“When you think about like Microsoft's co-pilot offering, it's going to add significant ARPU to every single seat of office, which is a massive install base, right?”
Partovi: Microsoft earnings grew fantastically under Steve Ballmer's CEO tenure
“The Steve years were not great for Microsoft's stock price. They were fantastic for Microsoft's earnings and earnings growth.”
Microsoft offered Tellme Networks an acquisition term sheet for $800M
“By the end of the weekend, three days later, I had a term sheet for seven hundred sixty million dollars. Plus the cash and imbalances. So just about eight hundred million dollars.”
Reber: Wunderlist ceased to exist three years post-acquisition
“So, like, Wanderlust is a very good example, right? After selling it three years later, it doesn't exist anymore.”
Microsoft is aggressively gaining market share in enterprise public cloud
“They are several years into this transition and as Microsoft generally does, they're doing a great job of being a fast follower. And are very aggressively gaining share and making strides on the enterprise segment of public cloud specifically.”
Wolfe: Kymeta is the only board Bill Gates joined besides Berkshire and Microsoft
“It's the only company that Bill Was on the board of besides Berkshire Hathaway and Microsoft.”
Microsoft bought Nuance for $20B+ and competed with Abridge
“And the first big competitor for us was Microsoft. They had bought a company called Nuance for 20 some billion some years ago, and they had a product in our category and we still compete with them in the marketplace.”
Tom Tunguz: Microsoft went public with $50M revenue and $2M fees
“Like I went back and looked at Microsoft, you know, you needed like fifty million in trailing revenue and six quarters of profitability to go public, right? And the cost to take a company public was a couple million bucks.”
O'Driscoll: Microsoft's capital expenditure has reached 25% of its revenue
“Microsoft CapEx as a percentage of revenue has crept up to 25%.”
Big Four Tech Giants Generate $600B in Annual Operating Cash Flow
“You look at Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta combined, I mean, they're doing six hundred billion of operating cash flow, just cash coming off the company every single year”
Lemkin: Microsoft Laid Off 3% of Its Workforce
“Microsoft laid off three percent of their company today.”
Wood: FAANGs, Microsoft, and Nvidia made up nearly 50% of Nasdaq 100 in 2021
“Last year the market reached all-time highs in twenty-twenty-one as we were selling off, and it was the Fangs, it was Microsoft, it was Nvidia, and those, if you look at the Nasdaq 100, account for, account ed at that time, for nearly 50% of that index”
Haas: Masayoshi Son lost 90% of his net worth and recovered it
“Arm is owned by SoftBank. So, Masayoshi-san, who's, I think, in the top 50 most wealthy people in the world, in the year 2000, he was the wealthiest man in the world, I think, for, he likes the joke, for about 20 nanoseconds when the SoftBank stock was higher …”
Quarles: OpenTable Ran on an Old Microsoft On-Premises Database
“When I got into the company, we were at a point at which the software that we had inside the restaurant was an old Microsoft on-prem distributed database, like not in the cloud.”
Hartz: Microsoft and Amazon both IPO'd at $500M valuations
“If you look back at Microsoft in the 19 eighties or Amazon in the 19 nineties, one would maybe not recall that they went public at a five hundred million dollar valuation each”
Microsoft acquired calendar app Sunrise.am for $100 million
“Sunrise.am, which was recently acquired for a hundred million by Microsoft.”
Romanow: Bill Gates Owned 50% of Microsoft at IPO
“When Microsoft went public, Bill Gates owned half of that company”
Buchheit: Microsoft's first product targeted only a few thousand potential customers
“Microsoft's first product was Altair Basic, which was a little basic interpreter for, or compiler for this computer called the Altair that had probably several hundred or maybe thousand possible customers.”