The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 33 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Zinman: ChatGPT and Claude won't win enterprise AI orchestration
“I don't think that ChatGPT or Gemini on Tropic are going to do it, because going back to my the second theory that we discussed, you know, of course, you know, people are buying a Tropic Claude, they're buying ChatGPT, but it's not a tool where you work with a…”
Ross: Gemini's integration into Gmail and Google products is practically unusable
“It's like, it's in Gmail, but it's practically unusable. It's in pretty much every product, and it seems thrown in, kind of, like, half thought through”
Arora: Over half of AI compute goes to loss-making consumer use
“I think more than half of the compute is going to feed the consumer, which is a fundamentally loss-making entity right now. Like, I don't think any of the frontier models make any money in trying to get you and me to use ChatGPD or, you know, Claude or Gemini …”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic capture almost all commercial LLM revenue
“And when you look at what's actually going on, the big two guys are getting all the money. Gemini, for some reason, doesn't appear to be able to do a great job of developing code or love and just getting that kind of traction because coding is where it's all h…”
Midha: Claude and Gemini Failed Badly at Physical Science Benchmarks
“About a year ago, as an example, I realized there was a lot of talk about models being good at physical physics and chemistry, AI for science. And I was a visiting scientist at the applied Physics department at Stanford. And we started benchmarking these model…”
Midha: Compute shortages will prevent top AI labs from hitting revenue targets
“I think if there's any reason why OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini, and so on don't hit their revenue targets over the next few years, it's because they won't have access to enough compute.”
Jerry Murdock: Google and Gemini are better long-term assets than OpenAI
“They can, and they are long-term better assets. They've got, if I have an autonomous agent business and I've got Gmail, you're going to have a phenomenal asset that open AI doesn't have.”
Stebbings: ChatGPT usage dropped 22% after Google released new Gemini models
“Since the new Gemini models came out, you've had a 22% drop in ChatGPT usage.”
Shlomo: Google is most likely to win the LLM race
“Google. By far. They have the compute. They're moving very fast. If Gemini at some point wins the race, like literally wins the race then they have the entire stack. Including like Google Cloud and whatever, whatever they need and they have the data and whatev…”
ElevenLabs speech-to-text beats OpenAI and Gemini on benchmarks
“Then speech to text is beating open AI, Gemini on benchmarks.”
Ramaswamy: OpenAI and Anthropic Lead AI; Google Gemini Is Fast Follow
“It's OpenAI and Anthropic that have created the best models on the planet for the last three years. It's not Microsoft. It's not Amazon. It's not Google. It looks like, you know, Gemini is good, but let's face it, it's at best a fast follow.”
Kolter: Open-sourcing models at GPT-4 capability poses low catastrophic risk
“If you look at the current best models that there are right now, so things like GPT-IV, Claude, 3.5 Gemini, things like this, I would not currently be all that nervous about having an open source model that was as capable as these in terms of the catastrophic …”
Mensch: DeepMind's initial Gemini development was too slow before recovering
“Gemini was a bit too slow, and I think they recovered sufficiently well since.”
Seibert: Google delayed Gemini to Q1 due to poor performance
“They've just punted Gemini into Q one, which tells me it's not doing very well.”
Lemkin: WSJ data shows Claude enterprise share jumped to 48%
“The wall street journal today published the market shares in the enterprise for open AI, Claude, Gemini and Grok. Grok is a rounding error going to the prior conversation, right? It's not making any progress. But everything is so multimodal that it said Gemini…”
Masad: Google's Gemini AI models offer the best price performance
“Google's Gemini's models have are the best at price performance, for example.”
Junestrand: Legora will immediately switch AI models if superior options emerge
“And so if a, if Gemini is better, we will switch immediately. Or if OpenAI is better, we will switch immediately. Or if a new model comes out that's better, we will switch immediately. You know, proving that the evals is better.”
Lemkin: LLMs will become the primary way consumers buy products
“I think we are way under discussing the power of discovery in LLMs. I think this is the way we will buy everything in the future as we are embedded in LLMs. Well, I don't know why I would use anything else other than the best of ChatGBT or Claude or Gemini to …”
Alex Schultz: AI chatbot adoption fundamentally changes user search behavior
“When people are using those, their behavior in search changes dramatically.”
Luan: Google's TPU team had under 500 people on a shoestring budget
“I think the TPU team when I was at Google was, like, sub-five hundred people and their budget was a shoestring budget, and yet somehow every generation they taped out quite good chips that were then used to train Gemini and Palm and are used by third parties n…”
Levie: AI context windows grew 500x in 18 months
“The token context window was more or less, I think, 4000 tokens. So you kind of give it like a blog post to analyze just in the past, you know, week at Google IO Sundar announced a two million token window model or version of Gemini. So think about that. That'…”
Levie: Users Will Wire Into Specific AI Models Rather Than Abstracted Selection
“I don't think you're going to have complete commoditization of sort of the personality of the models for the sort of style and the response to the point where then, you know, if you're a user, you know, any given response could come from Gemini, Versus GPT-IV …”
Atallah: OpenRouter Data Undercounts Frontier Models Due to Multi-Model Bias
“I think we have a, we definitely have a bias to People who believe our thesis, which is that the future is multi-model and companies who want multiple models. And there are still companies out there. I basically rarely, very rarely run into them now, but there…”
Masad: Google's Gemini is one of the best AI models for design
“Gemini is one of the best models at design.”
Zinman: Enterprise SaaS faces five distinct AI doomsday scenarios
“Yeah, so first of all, I think there's like five Doomeday scenarios I'm familiar with, so that's one of them. But, you know, I'll just take you back a little bit in time, but first of all, it was everything about people will Vibe code their own apps. That was …”
Cannon-Brookes: Anthropic is one of Atlassian's largest AI models
“We use Anthropic a lot. It's one of our biggest models. We use, you know, multiple models which I think is what most good SaaS vendors are doing within their customers' choices, right? Like we use a lot of Gemini, a lot of Anthropic. We have a whole bunch of L…”
Google Gemini's cybersecurity capabilities surpass all previous AI models
“Another example, Gemini, the new Gemini, right? His capabilities around specific years on security are much better than any model we've seen before.”
Andrew Ng: ChatGPT leads horizontal AI, but Gemini has a distribution advantage
“ChatGPT seems to be the dominant player in the new, new gen horizontal information discovery. Although I think Gemini with this channel advantage through control of Android and Chrome, you know, is a serious player as well.”
Krieger: Google Gemini benefits significantly from training on YouTube video data
“It's actually clear to me that Gemini benefits from that. Like whenever they have like a good, like video understanding demo, for example, I'm like, well, I, Somebody has like probably the largest repository of video in the world and can likely train on a lot …”
Riparbelli: Synthesia is shifting some workloads from OpenAI to Anthropic and Gemini
“We're most using OpenAI... We've shifted some workloads to Anthropic. We're also using Gemini actually.”
Srinivas: GPT-4 tier models are not yet commoditized
“I think GPT four quality models are not yet commoditized. There's only probably one or two alternatives for the people today, like Claude Opus or some people, Gemini, let's say. If it's just like two or three alternatives, it's not, I wouldn't call it a commod…”