why aren't all 37 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Kurtz calls competitor Cylance a one-trick pony, not a true platform
“A good example of that is silence. They shortcut it themselves to a better AV product, but they were one trick pony. They weren't a platform.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2029
Rory O'Driscoll: CrowdStrike will not be obviated by Anthropic's security launch
“I don't think CrowdStrike's obviated by this. I think it will totally be fine. It'll continue to be a business.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Lemkin: Three of today's top six B2B stocks will retain 2026 leadership
“My Pekumumusukus, Pekumumusukus, Palantir, Cloudflare, Mongo, Shopify, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, I'll bet you 10 grand, three of them are in the top six of this cohort at the end of next year.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2027
Lemkin: July 2024 global outage will not destroy CrowdStrike
“It's, it has, it is a service and we'll give them one pass. I don't think it will bring them down.”
Prediction Held up
Lemkin: CrowdStrike market cap will rebound to $83B by Christmas 2024
“I'm going to guess it bridges 50% of the gap. So was it a hundred? Today it's at 66. So I'm going to guess it makes back 17%, half of that. So what does that bring us up to 80? 83? I'll go 83.”
Prediction Partly held up
Lemkin: CrowdStrike product upsells will be put on hold for three quarters
“So I think almost upsells are going to have to go on hold for like, you know, three quarters.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Replacing CrowdStrike infrastructure will take enterprises three to five years
“Because the amount of energy and time it takes to deploy CrowdStrike is so huge that it would take three to five years to churn out for real, ok? You have to test Sentinel one or whatever you're going to do in a small group. You have to do it on stage and you …”
What-if
Kurtz wishes he took loans to buy more early CrowdStrike equity
“I probably would have took out as many loans as I could have and put as much money of my own money in the deal as early as possible.”
Disclosure
Accel told CrowdStrike founder George Kurtz to shop their term sheet
“Why don't you take my offer, my term sheet, you have it in your back pocket. So when you have these other conversations, Go in knowing that your deal done already, and if someone comes along and offers you something much better, or you think they're additive t…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Zanutto: Every enterprise will need Armis for unagentable devices alongside CrowdStrike
“As IoT devices continue to proliferate, you know, every enterprise will need a CrowdStrike for their agentable devices and an Armus for all unagentable devices.”
Assertion Supported
Randle: Top public SaaS platforms trade above 15x NTM revenue
“You have, I mean, Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Cloudflare, Datadog, Palantir, all these companies trade above 15 times NTM revenue again.”
Prediction Held up
O'Driscoll: Major cybersecurity incumbents will aggressively acquire agentic AI security startups
“So I think there'll be a ton of fast acquisitions as agent security solutions emerge, you know, and people will be doing, if they're smart, and I think those two companies are extraordinarily smart, they'll be doing acquisitions long before it's quote certain …”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Stebbings: CrowdStrike market cap will only reach $75B by Christmas 2024
“So I would go I'm gonna go for 75. I don't think it'll take such a rebound. I don't think it's gonna take such a rebound, but I think legals and fines are gonna be real, and I think it's gonna be an interesting enough story. It's touched enough consumer lives …”
Prediction Held up
Kurtz predicts CrowdStrike will mirror Salesforce's platform and revenue trajectory
“I think the next five years probably look a lot like, you know, Salesforce trajectory where you continue to build out your platform, you continue to scale your revenue, your annual recurring revenue, additional geographic expansion.”
Assertion Contradicted
CrowdStrike was the third fastest-growing enterprise software company to IPO
“I think we were the third fastest growth company to ever IPO behind like Zoom and Salesforce.”
Disclosure
Gandhi: Accel's pre-mortem downside for CrowdStrike was an incident response business
“I think the number one thing on this was like, man, we just whiffed on the cloud native concept, and nobody's willing to do it, you know, like, that was one where, if you got that wrong, you know, and I think you see in my memo, it's like, well, if we totally …”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2027
O'Driscoll: CrowdStrike Will Beat 23% Growth Guidance by Two Points
“Slight deacceleration, 27 to guidance of 23, 27% revenue growth, guidance of 23, they'll probably beat that by two.”
Assertion Partly supported
Clements: Accel invested in CrowdStrike at $160M valuation with $1M ARR
“The example I would point to is, you know, CrowdStrike. Samir Gandhi and John Locke intersected CrowdStrike when it was, you know, there was like a million dollars of software revenue and there was a nine million dollar consulting business, and like, that was …”
Insight
Lemkin: Public markets shrug off legal fines as non-forward impacts
“The legal and fines, you take a reserve, and the truth is it doesn't really matter because it's not a forward impact. It doesn't really tell you where CrowdStrike's gonna be in five years, so the markets usually shrug it off, even though Again, it's a lot of d…”
Insight
Ball: Transitioning from point solution to platform drives top SaaS success
“And you see some of the most successful public companies today, the crowd strikes of the world, the data dogs of the world, right? And it's exactly what you just said. It's moving from a point solution to a platform. Like that's really hard.”
Assertion Supported
Kurtz: CrowdStrike was the largest security company at IPO
“When we IPO'd, we were the largest security company at the time when we IPO'd.”
Insight
CEOs must accept delegation once employee count surpasses personal knowledge
“At some point there, it's, you have to trust you got the right people, because you haven't interviewed them. You have to accept that you're not going to know everybody. You're not going to know their names.”
Prediction Held up
Kurtz: CrowdStrike committed to never selling perpetual licenses
“When I recruited my CFO, I said, hey, we'll never have a perpetual license, and he gave me a hug.”
Disclosure
Kurtz: CrowdStrike built early global remote workforce around top talent
“I focused on getting the top 20 people wherever they were in the world, and we didn't really care about having them in an office. And we really, I would say, pioneered a lot of, pioneered, maybe that's the wrong word, but we were ahead of the curve in terms of…”
Assertion Partly supported
Kurtz: CrowdStrike was unique in offering in-app platform trials
“Part of the secret sauce with CrowdStrike and selling is that the platform helps sell itself, and we've got in-app trials, nobody has that.”
Insight
Gandhi: Cybersecurity incident response services directly drive product sales
“In fact, it's an amazing business because once you make money on incident response services, it pulls through product afterwards.”
Disclosure
CrowdStrike used incident response services to bridge slow early cloud adoption
“We could be pushing cloud and having a slower adoption cycle around the Falcon platform, which is really the endpoint product platform. And the way that was mitigated for us is that the company was doing really high-end incident response services, and so there…”
Assertion Supported
Gandhi: Accel invested in CrowdStrike at a $150M post-money valuation
“So I never looked at it as a three to five X. I looked at it as we're investing in a company, you know, in the first round when we did it was a 150 posts or something like that.”
Assertion Supported
Rory O'Driscoll: CrowdStrike traded at 16x revenue post-drop with 31% cash margins
“It's 22% revenue growth projected, 31% cash margins, and it was trading at 16 X revenues on Friday after the first hit.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lloyd: Sequoia connected Warp to CrowdStrike's president within hours of an issue
“And so I reached out to Andrew. I was like, can you help me here? And then that day I was on the phone with the president of CrowdStrike.”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: CrowdStrike is growing 33% at nearly $4B revenue
“Amazing, growing 33% at almost four billion in revenue.”
Disclosure
Stebbings bought CrowdStrike stock when its market cap was $74B
“I mean, I bought when it was at 74.”
Disclosure
Kurtz: CrowdStrike raised $25M Series A from Warburg Pincus off 25 slides
“I became an entrepreneur in residence at Warburg Pincus, got basically crown track off the ground, and wrote 25 slides, got twenty-five million bucks.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kurtz: CrowdStrike ran public-company operational systems years before its IPO
“We looked like a public company when we were many years Still private. And we ran it that way. You know, okers, management systems, like measurement of everything.”
Assertion Supported
CrowdStrike flew all global new hires to California pre-COVID
“Up until COVID, you know, we would actually, no matter where the person was hired, they could be in Australia, we would send them to California for one week of training.”
Assertion Supported
Kurtz met 100 global customers in 100 days post-CrowdStrike IPO
“On Monday, we're going to start the 100 by 100. We're taking one day off and we're doing the 100 by 100. He said, well, what is that? And I said, we're going to meet a hundred customers in a hundred days, wherever they are. I flew all over the world to meet a …”
Assertion Supported
Snowflake, UiPath, and CrowdStrike exceeded $500M revenue during hyper-growth
“When you look at companies like, you know, Snowflake, UiPath, CrowdStrike, these companies that are north of five hundred million in revenue growing still at incredibly hyper growth rates.”