The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sierra engineers report 3x to 20x productivity boost from AI agents
“We have software engineers who are completely AI-pilled and using Cloud Code, Codex, our own internal agent we call Pinecone that we used to run much of the company on, and they estimate they are between three and 20 times more productive in terms of features …”
Clay Bavor Jul 4, 2026 ▶ 16:50 Open Models vs Frontier Models: Who Actually Wins? | The $100K Token Budget Every Engineer Will Need · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2031
AI agents will evolve into completely autonomous software engineers
“My prediction would be agents that are like completely autonomous software engineers. Today, I think we're all using Tools like CloudCode or Codex to write code, but not as literal software engineers.”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 22:28 Perplexity CEO: Micron Will Be More Valuable Than Meta & How Export Controls Helped Not Hurt China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Emberikos: OpenAI has plenty of training data for AI coding models
“I think that from what we've seen, and you know, I would defer to my research team on this, but I feel like we feel like we have plenty enough data to build really good coding models.”
Alexander Emberikos Feb 21, 2026 ▶ 35:43 OpenAI's Codex Lead: Why Coding as We Know It is Over · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Acharya: AI dev tools Cursor, Codex, and Claude Code will all grow
“The desire and demand for software, both to make it and to consume it, is dramatically more than the supply that we have today, and I think there is a developer and developer adjacent archetype for whom Cursor is going to be perfect, Codex as an app, Codex as …”
Anish Acharya Feb 9, 2026 ▶ 12:04 a16z, Anish Acharya: Is SaaS Dead? Do Margins Still Matter? Why We Are Not in an AI Bubble? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Lloyd: Warp has 700,000 users, outpacing Claude Code and OpenAI Codex
“We have way, way more users than Cloud Code, for instance, or Codex. We have 700,000 users because we've been doing this for Five years.”
Zach Lloyd Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 27:58 20VC: The Startup Adding $1M ARR Every Week | Competing Against OpenAI's Codex and Claude Code: Who Wins | Why Gemini is Failing and GPT-5 Is Winning | Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | The Ugly Truth About AI Coding with Zach Lloyd, Warp
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Replit builds features with Claude Sonnet and verifies code via Codex
“Replit, if you have a complex feature, Replit builds it in Claude, Sonnet, not Open, it builds it in Sonnet to save money, and then it has Codex come in and check the work. It has both of them.”
Jason Lemkin Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 36:52 Anthropic Files to Go Public | Cognition Raises $1BN at $26BN Valuation | The 996 Work Ethic · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Masad: Late 2025 AI coding hype was driven by free token giveaways
“If you think about the hype Period that we got with, like, Claude code and codex towards the end of 25, early 26, a lot of it was driven by how much free tokens they were given out, how much, you know, every other day they're like, oh, it's 50% more tokens or …”
Amjad Masad Apr 25, 2026 ▶ 16:55 Replit CEO: Why the SaaS Apocalypse is Justified & Why Coding Models are Plateauing | Amjad Masad · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: AI compute constraint will be a major bottleneck in 2026 and 2027
“But now it looks like compute constraint is a real thing in 26 and early 27. You have that asset. Maybe you figure out how to deploy that aggressively with Codex. So there's buttons you can press, there's things you can do if you focus and do them.”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 9, 2026 ▶ 27:30 OpenAI Buys TBPN & Their Management Team Reboot | Mercor Hack & Why Now is the Time for Cyber · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Emberikos: Free ChatGPT users will use Codex over specialized coding tools
“And so I think we're definitely going to see people with like a free chat GPT plan coming in and just like building simple things where they otherwise might have gone to a specialized tool.”
Alexander Emberikos Feb 21, 2026 ▶ 38:20 OpenAI's Codex Lead: Why Coding as We Know It is Over · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Greze: Codex has roughly 100 people working on it
“Codex is like a hundred people making that thing better”
Jean-Denis Greze Sep 7, 2026 ▶ 32:58 Town vs Instinct vs GrokBot | Why the AI Assistant Market Is Not a Bubble
Disclosure
Levie: Public company CEOs spend weekends coding with Claude Code and Codex
“I have Slack channels and WhatsApp groups where people on the weekend are just like working with Cloud Code or Codex building stuff, and they're public company CEOs.”
Aaron Levie Apr 20, 2026 ▶ 42:11 Aaron Levie: Everyone is Wrong; We'll Have More Developers in 5 Years · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: SaaStr will not switch internal AI apps from Claude to OpenAI
“It runs on Sonnet three. I mean sorry, four, seven, and maybe a little bit of Opus. There is no way we're going to switch the model. This is dialed in. It works. Now we're going to have to deal with QA when it goes to four, eight and five. There's a little bit…”
Jason Lemkin Mar 26, 2026 ▶ 12:06 Why You Need a $1B Fund To Do Series A | SpaceX at $2TRN & Data Centers in Space | Groq's $20BN Deal · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Emberikos: Optimal software interfaces for AI agents mirror those for humans
“We've noticed as we build Codex that the best, like, the best interfaces for Codex to do work are also tend to be the best interfaces for humans.”
Alexander Emberikos Feb 21, 2026 ▶ 34:26 OpenAI's Codex Lead: Why Coding as We Know It is Over · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Emberikos: Nearly all OpenAI code is automatically reviewed by Codex
“Nearly all code at OpenAI is reviewed by Codex automatically whenever you push it to a good repo.”
Alexander Emberikos Feb 21, 2026 ▶ 21:59 OpenAI's Codex Lead: Why Coding as We Know It is Over · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Emberikos: OpenAI recently accelerated API model serving by 40 percent
“So we recently rolled out a change where in the API, like, those models are served, like, 40% faster, and in Codex they're served, like, a quarter fast, 25% faster.”
Alexander Emberikos Feb 21, 2026 ▶ 15:45 OpenAI's Codex Lead: Why Coding as We Know It is Over · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Emberikos: Codex users currently use the tool tens of times daily
“When we look at how often, ah, you know, codex users are using codex, it's like kind of this, like, tens of times kind of range.”
Alexander Emberikos Feb 21, 2026 ▶ 6:44 OpenAI's Codex Lead: Why Coding as We Know It is Over · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
FOMO Mandates Enterprise AI Tools to Safeguard Proprietary Code
“Yeah, so we have an internal AI policy to make sure that we're only using enterprise account, that there's not sensitive things being uploaded, etc. I think that's really important. And then within those guidelines, most of our engineers are using cloud code a…”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 25:32 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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