why aren't all 24 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Shlomo: AI software building is not a winner-take-all market
“Software building as a category is gonna grow insanely fast. I think our notion from the previous age of venture capital where a winner takes it all is wrong. And I think this category is going to be so big that everybody will take a niche at some point.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shlomo: Vibe coding will become software's largest category, swallowing traditional SaaS
“I felt like in my eyes, this is going to be the largest category in, in software industry. Cause a lot of like existing categories that we're familiar with. And CRM and support systems and task management and project management and stuff like that are going to…”
Opinion
Abrahami: Wix's Base44 Should Be Valued at $8 Billion Standalone
“Because if you look at peers, they're doing a vibe coding, the multipart is much higher than the one we would get for base to be a two billion, right? So basically on its own should probably be at eight billion.”
Opinion
Shlomo: Base44 is not worried about rivals Lovable, Replit, or Bolt
“I'm not worried about those three.”
Opinion
Shlomo: Joining Wix tripled Base44's odds of success over VC funding
“It was either I raise a lot of money and a lot of funding, or I go and join Wix that basically triples my chances at actually building something special.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shlomo: Margins for AI coding platforms will improve drastically
“I don't think current margins are bad, but I think they're going to get way better.”
Assertion Supported
Abrahami: Wix core platform has vastly higher margins than Base44
“Wix is way, way, way, way, way more profitable, right? The cost of a Wix, generating Wix website is pretty much zero in comparison, and hosting pretty much zero in comparison. So, way more profitable on Wix than on Base-Four, and the margins are much better.”
Disclosure
Abrahami: Wix Generates ~$400M Free Cash Flow and Invests ~$200M in Base44
“We make about four hundred million dollars a year in free cash flow, and we invest about 200 and something million into base 44.”
Disclosure
Abrahami: Wix acquired Base44 when it had just one employee
“We've, ah, the M&A of Base-Forty-Four, right? Well, we bought a company with one person. I want to be clear, right? And then we put a lot of people from Wix into that, right?”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2028
Abrahami: Base44 Will Scale to 1,000 Employees Within Two Years
“I would imagine probably 800 to a thousand. And the majority of them would actually be engineers.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Abrahami: Vibe-coding margin concerns will disappear within two years
“And so I think that in, in, in two years or maybe less this is not gonna be an important question.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shlomo: Nearly 90% of Base44's code is already AI-generated
“For us, base 44 was built in the age of LLMs, and so I structured the repository in a way that's going to be very easy for LLMs to navigate through and to read the code. I think for us, it's already closer to 90%.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shlomo: Base44 will fine-tune open-source models on billions of code lines
“And I think this is a really interesting strategy that we're also thinking internally is, like, go as fast as you can with the frontier models. At some point, open source becomes really a viable option to maybe fine tune on, like, the billions, almost trillion…”
Opinion
Shlomo: Operating outside Silicon Valley does not hurt tech startups
“I don't think in any way, no business is hurting. If anything I think the war on talent is really tough in Silicon Valley.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Wix added $100M in AI revenue via Base 44 acquisition
“And what they'done better than most public companies is hell with a great acquisition. They got a hundred million of AI revenue on top of it.”
Assertion Contradicted
Base44 is the youngest company to run a Super Bowl ad
“I think that we are the youngest company ever that going to have Super Bowl commercial.”
Prediction Held up
Wix and subsidiary Base44 will air two Super Bowl commercials in 2026
“We are going to do two Super Bowl spots this year. One is for Wix, and this is going to be the sixth one that we're doing for the amazing company that I'm part of it in the last 18 years. And in addition to that, we are going to have Super Bowl spots for base …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shlomo: Competitors copy Base44 features within weeks or months
“Every Feature that we put out. We know that's going to take either a few weeks or a few months for competitor to copy, and we see that a lot.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Shlomo: Base44 processes tens of thousands of prompts per minute
“Nowadays we get, like, tens of thousands of prompts, like, a minute or whatever in tandem, and so we measure the sentiment”
Disclosure
Shlomo: Base44 was highly profitable before its acquisition by Wix
“And then, and like the business was very profitable.”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Wix bought AI startup Base44 for $80 million
“Bought for eighty million using the same underlying technology, cloud code, right?”
Prediction Held up
O'Driscoll: Wix's acquisition of Base44 will reach $50M ARR this year
“The market would say that the Wix acquisition has worked very well and, you know, it's probably going to be fifty million in ARR by the end of the year.”
Disclosure
Abrahami: Base44 Has 400 Employees Out of Wix's 3,500
“So best for the floor is around 400 people. Weeks in total is about including about 3500.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wix took years to build the marketing scale Base44 reached in months
“It took me, I think, six or seven years and weeks to do what we did in base in, like, months and a half, in two months.”