The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mostaque: Only 5 or 6 foundation model companies will exist in 3-5 years
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. I think it's going to be us, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
Emad Mostaque Nov 24, 2023 ▶ 0:55 The Ultimate AI Roundtable: What Happens Now in AI, Why Google are Vulnerable | E1085 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Contradicted
Weitzman: AirPods made more revenue than Spotify and audio competitors combined
“And by the way, AirPods made more money Then Spotify and almost every other audio company put together every single year for the last seven years.”
Cliff Weitzman May 9, 2026 ▶ 1:42:30 Cliff Weitzman: What I Learned from 100 of the World’s Top CEOs & Why Tokens Will Outspend Salaries · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chad Byers Predicts Facebook or Amazon Will Hit $1 Trillion First
“So I think it's Facebook. You know, my second answer, although this is kind of cheating, would probably be Amazon. So Facebook or Amazon, I don't think it's Apple. I don't think it's Google. I think it's going to be one of those two.”
Chad Byers Aug 24, 2016 ▶ 21:25 20VC: Why Raising A Fund Is Like Raising A $25m Seed Round with No Product & Why Not All LP Money Is Equal with Chad Byers, General Partner @ Susa Ventures
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: Apple will announce US iPhone assembly operations within the year
“I think, listen, I don't, I would have to do more analysis to see if, it's not possible, right? If it's close to impossible, but announcing it and beginning a process, you might have to do it. You just might have to do it. I'm going to go yes.”
Jason Lemkin Jun 19, 2025 ▶ 1:03:03 Chime IPO: Are IPOs Hotter Than Ever? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Contradicted
Morin: Apple purchased 100,000 Trainium AI chips from Amazon
“Let's take Amazon, for instance, with Tranium. Apple just came and said, Hey, we're going to buy a 100,000 of them.”
Steeve Morin Feb 24, 2025 ▶ 40:30 Steeve Morin: Why Google Will Win the AI Arms Race & OpenAI Will Not | E1262 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: iPhone and App Store drive 75% of Apple revenue
“25% of the revenue is from the App Store, 40% of its profit, right? And 75% of its revenue is iPhone and App Store.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 31, 2025 ▶ 55:38 Why Apple Needs a Management Overhaul & Why Google is Catching Up with Hyperscalers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Contradicted
Moubeche: Apple AirPods generate more revenue than any software company
“I love this graph where you see, like AirPods revenue versus any software company, and you see that just the AirPods are making, like, more revenue than any software currently on the market.”
Guillaume Moubeche Dec 13, 2024 ▶ 1:09:29 Guillaume Moubeche, lempire Founder: Bootsrapping to $30M ARR Through Content & Brand | E1238 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Contradicted
Ryan: Apple Raised Only $9 Million in Its IPO
“When Apple went public, when they went public, they raised nine million dollars in the IPO.”
Kevin Ryan Apr 10, 2024 ▶ 50:18 Kevin Ryan: Are the Best CEOs the Best Fundraisers & Why Ownership Should Not Be a Focus in VC|E1138 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Made with StarZero

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 1,200 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.