The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 87 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Elon Musk and Tesla Failed at Building Wafer-Scale Chips for Dojo
“And after we did it Elon tried Dojo and they failed.”
Feldman: Nvidia Has Zero CUDA Software Lock-In for AI Inference
“In inference, it's not real at all. There's no CUDA lock-in in inference. None. Well, you can move from OpenAI on an NVIDIA GPU to Cerebrus to Fireworks Service on something else to Together to perplexity with 10 keystrokes. I mean, anybody who actually uses A…”
Tenev denies Robinhood colluded with hedge funds to restrict meme stock trading
“The idea that somehow the most wrong thing was this allegation of collusion that we're somehow colluding with hedge funds that we have no business relationship with to somehow restrict buying of these stocks. Yeah, I think that was just wrong.”
Laqua: Employees taking weekends off have no place at Corgi
“If your days off happen to be Saturday and Sunday every week, then you will not have a place at Corgi.”
Lemkin: A $100 billion startup exit will happen within a year
“The big exits will solve it, right? The whizzes and the, I mean, we thought whizz was big. Now we have cursor. Now I'm going to win the bet of a hundred billion dollar exit in the next year.”
Andreessen: Companies falsely blame AI for corporate layoffs
“And now they all have the silver bullet excuse, right? Ah, it's AI. Right, and I know this for a fact, because number one, I talk to them, but number two, I know this for a fact, because AI until, like, literally until, like, December, right, was not actually …”
O'Driscoll: Oracle will lay off 20k to 30k employees over AI capex strain
“The only person that's even struggling slightly to cover their nut is Oracle, right? Because they had the weakest balance sheet and the least compelling use case, which is why at some point they're going to throw 20 or 30,000 people over the side to make the P…”
Siemiatkowski: Klarna cut headcount by 50% to under 3,000 employees
“We've gone from 7000 people. We're now below 3000. We've shrank 50%.”
Andrew Ng: Artificial general intelligence is decades or longer away
“So this phantom AGI, someday with AI, they can do everything a human can do. I think we're very far away from that. I would say, you know, like decades away, maybe even longer.”
Cahn: Chip makers finance AI buildouts to book revenue circularly
“The chip companies are now stepping up and saying, okay, we'll absorb some of the risk. We'll put in the capital to finance this build out where the demand on the other side is not so clear because of course the chip companies also get to book this as revenue.”
Benioff: Salesforce cut support headcount from 9,000 to 5,000 via AI agents
“And to that point, I've been able to reduce the number of human agents I have in support From about 9000 to about 5000.”
Tenev: Robinhood enabled private stock tokenization without target company opt-in
“And so I think it's important for the tokenization mechanism to work. Without the opt-in of the companies that, that are being tokenized. And I think that's actually the innovation that we've been able to drive. Like we can, we figured out how to make this wor…”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI misses next year's revenue target by 40% if growth matches Google
“If all OpenAI is, Is just as good as Google, then it's going to miss its number next year by about 40%.”
Scott: Frontier AI models diagnose health issues better than average GPs
“It is already the case that I think the frontier models are probably better like health diagnosticians than Your average GP is”
Hoggett: Most UK companies listing in the US perform poorly or delist
“In the last 10 years, only 20 UK companies have listed in the US that have raised over a hundred million. Of those, nine have already delisted, only four are trading up and the rest are trading down by over 80%.”
Oscar Pierre Faces a Potential Six-Year Prison Sentence Over Glovo's Labor Model
“And unfortunately, the, yeah, the country where we suffer from regulation the most is Spain. I'm not going to go into the details, but it's so extreme that I'm now in a criminal process for so the, yeah, the prosecutor, the general attorney accused me with six…”
Mollick: OpenAI's $3B revenue run rate is largely an accident
“I mean, they're incidentally making three billion dollar run rate this year, I think by like just accident, but there isn't like a, there isn't really a product there right now.”
ByteDance Will Delay TikTok Action Until After the US Presidential Election
“Likely, and I have no inside information here, I think ByteDance waits for the election, because they presume that Trump could get bought off by investors since, you know, he's a coin-operated person in his entire life, not just as in his presidency.”
Proposed EU AI Regulation Would Make All Existing LLMs Illegal
“One of the percent of the LMs that were trained these last three years would be illegal in Europe.”
Didi and the Chinese Government Had Full Access to Uber's Data
“It became very clear that everyone had all our data. Didi knew everything we were doing whereas, like, Lyft and Uber always knew what each other were doing, because we were watching each other, we're friends, things like that, but, like, we never had each othe…”
Holland: Excessive burn rate killed Fast, not investor Stripe
“Having Stripe as an investor isn't what killed our company. Having too high a burn is what killed our company. There's just no other way to put it.”
Ed Baker: Uber secretly ran India test against CEO orders, doubling conversion
“We decided to run a test In Hyderabad, India, where we said, let's let riders request their first ride without putting a credit card number in. In fact, we were told by our CEO not to run that test because he felt so strongly against it, but we had so much con…”
Carney: Long-Term Interest Rates Will Rise Notably This Decade
“I believe that very central banker-y answer, but I believe long-term interest rates are going to rise, notably this decade. I long felt that we were in a low for long, and I felt that for a long time. I was right about it for a long time. Now I feel that there…”
Lee predicts an imminent, massive crash in the ICO market
“So I fear that there's going to be a huge crash in the whole ICO market sometime soon.”
Reyes: Chinese AI models show no unique security backdoors versus US models
“For me, the Chinese models specifically have demonstrated no examples where they have some sort of security risk or backdoor compared to American models.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI is lobbying in Washington for AI regulation alongside Anthropic
“They're signing this publicly while at the same time lobbying in Washington right alongside Anthropic for a regulatory process.”
Lemkin: OpenAI and Anthropic Lied About Books and YouTube Training Data
“Open AI, an anthropic, Kind of lied about the books, and they definitely lied about training on YouTube”
Randle: Frontier AI models can now autonomously execute cyber attacks
“Zooming out, I think the most important thing in all this Is that we step back from Anthropic and realize that the models are to place now, whether they're from Anthropic or elsewhere, where they can autonomously find and chain multiple vulnerabilities togethe…”
Anthropic lobbied heavily for US AI export controls
“And definitely like companies like Anthropic lobbied very hard for it.”
Foody: Investor Spread False Rumors of China Accessing Mercor Data
“Think of one person that's very prominent who's invested in multiple competitors and just, like, made this tweet about how all of our data was getting accessed by China when it was totally untrue.”
Lemkin: AI agents render Marketo, Outreach, and Salesloft worthless
“They're not going to recommend Marketo for your agent to do marketing automation, ok? In fact, it mocked Marketo outreach and sales loft as tools useless to agents. Ok, this API grid. They said there is no place in the, an agent will never send an email throug…”
Stebbings: Sequoia and top VCs announce misleading blended valuations
“The amount of Sequoia rounds where it's like, oh, you know, X raises money from square five billion. Trust me, Sequoia got in at one, but they just club it together and then announced the sum and then the latest valuation. And it's just very misleading.”
Lemkin: US government will block Anthropic indefinitely regardless of court rulings
“The government's going to say you're either going to agree to this or we're going to freeze you out of the US economy. And it doesn't matter what a court says. Because they'll come up with another justification. There'll be another one. There'll be a different…”
Lemkin: Fortune 500 will actively replace human employees with AI by year-end
“By the end of this year, that, that train is going to be so far out of the station that, that these growth numbers will be jaw dropping because we will decide enterprises will the fortune 500 or global 2000 will decide we are replacing humans with AI.”
Lemkin: The shelf life of a state-of-the-art LLM is under 100 days
“There is a very simple bear case that it goes almost to zero which is that shelf life of an LLM is less than a hundred days.”
Chang: Energy companies claiming 100% renewable tariffs are lying
“So any energy company that's claiming their harm sent renewables is a complete lie. Right. They're simply buying renewable certificates, right, to claim the harm sent renewables, and it's completely false.”
O'Driscoll: US fintechs will use anti-China messaging against foreign rivals
“Competitors are going to be the people who use it first. Because if I was an all-American fintech company, I'd have my all-American flag out there and say, these guys are a bunch of commies. They have commies looking at your data. We're, you know, our stuff is…”
Taneja: Anthropic's enterprise business will be bigger than OpenAI's
“I think their enterprise business I'd argue will be bigger than OpenAI if it already isn't already not having spent that much.”
Lemkin: OpenAI Stole YouTube Videos to Train AI Models
“This isn't even stealing YouTube videos like OpenAI did.”
Halligan: Morgan Stanley and Fidelity aligned to lower HubSpot's IPO price
“I don't think there was collusion going on, but definitely Morgan Stanley and Fidelity were on the same side of the table trying to get us to sell at a lower price.”
Galloway: Young Americans transfer $1.3T yearly to seniors via Social Security
“Every year, young people transfer 1.3 trillion dollars in the form of Social Security payments to the wealthiest generation in the history of the planet, seniors.”
Hinrikus: The vast majority of European VC partners lack operating experience
“I, you know, I've said many times is that if you look at the European landscape, majority, vast majority of the European GPs have not spent a single day working in a real company. They've worked in consulting firms, banks, but they haven't worked in a real ope…”
Stan Boland: UK's £30B annual tech funding yields virtually no results
“This, 20, thirty billion a year that we pump in at the front end per annum in tech. So, like, a hundred and fifty billion over a parliament in university funding for science and tech, in SEIS, in EIS, in VCTs, in R&D tax credits, and patent box, and so on. All…”
Stebbings: Klarna is not replacing all of its SaaS with AI
“And we have companies like Klarna who are saying, oh, we're replacing all of our SaaS with AI. They're not, they're absolutely not. And they won't.”
Ross: NVIDIA used misleading benchmark curves to claim 30x GPU speedup
“Like, if you look at the last GTC, there was an announcement that the latest GPUs were 30 x faster than the previous generation. And when you look at how it was done, there was this curve that looked kind of like this, and then it Basically ended here, and the…”
Ross: Southeast Asian GPU deployments secretly serve Chinese firms
“One of the concerns right now is about Malaysia or Singapore, that region over there being a place where people are deploying GPUs with the wink, wink, like we're not going to rent it to China, right? But that's a belief that a lot of people are doing that. Ot…”
Odoo bans recurring meetings to avoid traditional managers
“I forbid the recurring meeting at the company. They can do meetings. But on the job, or for specific tasks, or trainings, but not recurring meeting. I mean, recurring meeting is a way to manage people, and we try to avoid managers. We want team leaders that wo…”
Pishevar: Holder's investigation report found no personal wrongdoing by Kalanick
“And the report, by the way, didn't find anything wrong that, you know, Travis did, or I did, or there was nothing, nothing in there about, you know, him, you know, directly and the recommendation was like to go hire a Sheryl Sandberg, like a chief operating of…”