Rob Hayes

Partner, First Round Capital · 1 appearance on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

Rob Hayes is a partner at First Round Capital, where he opened the firm's San Francisco office. He has led investments in companies such as Mint.com, Square, Uber, and Planet Labs.

14statements → 3claims → 2claims resolved → 4/5average certainty → 2.29/5average debate potential → 4.3/5argument clarity · the sources → 10said about them ↓

1 supported 1 partly supported 0 contradicted 1 not checkable as stated how the 3 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

3 assertions · 2 opinions · 6 insights · 3 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 3 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 2 are resolved, and 1 names no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Rob argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported

Corporate VC funds tend to launch near venture market peaks

“I find a strong correlation with when corporate funds get started and with the top of the VC market”

Rob Hayes Mar 21, 2016 ▶ 4:23 Uber's First Investor, First Round Capital's Rob Hayes on How The Deal Of The Decade Originated and Why Product Orientated VC Is The Future

Argument clarity: do they answer the question? how? →

4.3 / 5 directness 4.6 · coherence 4.6 · precision 4.2 · compression 3.7

answered every one of 22 assessed questions directly

This is a score against a rubric. It is not a rank. Every host question → answer exchange is scored with names hidden on directness, coherence, precision and compression, 1–5 each, on meaning alone: disfluencies are ignored, and only raw unedited episodes count. This is the score that measures thought. Every scored exchange, scores shown → · The rubric and its checks →

How they sound: speaking style how? →

265 words/min while actually speaking · 19.2 um and uh per 1k words

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 4,583 words across 1 episode of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

How the interview went all their pushback → series average →

Across 1 rated episode:

host pushback ▾ 2/10

pushed back at the host ▾ 3/10

setup questions received 80%

host pushback: the hardest questions Harry asked, tap to play ▶ 3:28“Now that's just too enticing. That's obviously not a question on the schedule, but what is wrong with corporate funds then?” ▶ 6:28“And I have to ask, when you invested, did you have any idea of the scale it could become?” ▶ 10:47“And what do you make of that aggressive global expansion?”

when Rob pushed back ▶ 11:06“I would look at it as more active than aggressive in terms of, you know, they're going into markets where, you know, people are downloading the app, opening the app, and it's clear…” ▶ 12:43“Well, you know, I think that first of all, I mean, let me set a little context for you. I mean, my, my ultimate goal is to, you know, take money from my investors and And invest it…”

What they said14 What others said10 Episodes1

Everything Rob Hayes said on 20VC that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Assertion Not checkable as stated

No seed investor predicted Uber's ultimate scale except its founders

“Anybody that says that they did, other than, you know, Travis and Ryan, who actually did kind of have that vision early on would be lying to you.”

Rob Hayes Mar 21, 2016 ▶ 6:44 Uber's First Investor, First Round Capital's Rob Hayes on How The Deal Of The Decade Originated and Why Product Orientated VC Is The Future

Disclosure

First Round will not declare Uber a win until cash is returned

“I mean, my ultimate goal is to, you know, take money from my investors and invest it in companies and return multiples on that one. I haven't done that. Right. And so until that happens, I don't think I don't even call it a success right now. Come on. It's a m…”

Rob Hayes Mar 21, 2016 ▶ 12:47 Uber's First Investor, First Round Capital's Rob Hayes on How The Deal Of The Decade Originated and Why Product Orientated VC Is The Future

Insight

VCs should treat founders as customers and LPs as shareholders

“Now, listen, we think of, you know, our LPs are, you know, our investors are very important to us, obviously, but I think of them as our shareholders. And if I make my customers very happy and have the best product out there, Then my shareholders are going to …”

Rob Hayes Mar 21, 2016 ▶ 17:20 Uber's First Investor, First Round Capital's Rob Hayes on How The Deal Of The Decade Originated and Why Product Orientated VC Is The Future

Opinion

Benchmark is the best venture firm at managing generational transitions

“And so what it means is, and I think that, you know, right now there's probably, you know, no one that does this better than benchmark in this space where they're continually bringing in young people and growing them from, you know, from, you know, relatively …”

Rob Hayes Mar 21, 2016 ▶ 19:14 Uber's First Investor, First Round Capital's Rob Hayes on How The Deal Of The Decade Originated and Why Product Orientated VC Is The Future

Insight

VCs passed on Uber due to a small market and unknown CEO

“A lot of the reasons that people didn't invest were one, at the time it was an unknown guy, Ryan Graves running the company and two, It was seen as not a very big market.”

Rob Hayes Mar 21, 2016 ▶ 7:15 Uber's First Investor, First Round Capital's Rob Hayes on How The Deal Of The Decade Originated and Why Product Orientated VC Is The Future

Assertion Partly supported

Ryan Graves built Uber's operational core and expansion playbook

“In Ryan's case, it turned out to be true. I mean, he, he's an amazing guy. And, you know, if you look at You know, the impact that he's had on Uber and the culture there and, you know, how they, you know, kind of started, you know, going from city to city and …”

Rob Hayes Mar 21, 2016 ▶ 7:40 Uber's First Investor, First Round Capital's Rob Hayes on How The Deal Of The Decade Originated and Why Product Orientated VC Is The Future

Insight

Standard VC market size analysis failed to predict Uber's potential

“The market analysis that, that a lot of people were using was the wrong market analysis, because even though there was an actual car and it was black and it pulled up and it picked you up, this was not the black car market. This was something very, very differ…”

Rob Hayes Mar 21, 2016 ▶ 8:45 Uber's First Investor, First Round Capital's Rob Hayes on How The Deal Of The Decade Originated and Why Product Orientated VC Is The Future

Disclosure

Uber's 2010 seed funding round was not overly competitive

“It wasn't, no, it wasn't a terribly competitive round. I don't think, I mean, it was a real negotiation around it, and there were a few other people around the table. You know, I don't think that, you know, it wasn't one of these crazy, I mean, this was You kn…”

Rob Hayes Mar 21, 2016 ▶ 11:51 Uber's First Investor, First Round Capital's Rob Hayes on How The Deal Of The Decade Originated and Why Product Orientated VC Is The Future

Disclosure

First Round lost the Dropbox deal over a small valuation gap

“Actually had a term sheet out to him. Ended up losing on valuation and a very, very small differential on ballot valuation, which was a massive lesson for me in that, you know, there are crazy valuations and there are not crazy valuations, but when you're talk…”

Rob Hayes Mar 21, 2016 ▶ 23:21 Uber's First Investor, First Round Capital's Rob Hayes on How The Deal Of The Decade Originated and Why Product Orientated VC Is The Future

Insight

Early-stage founders should spend 95% of their time on tactics

“Especially when you're a super early stage, you know, spend 95% of your time trying to make things happen on a day-to-day basis, and five percent or less of your time on things strategic.”

Rob Hayes Mar 21, 2016 ▶ 25:09 Uber's First Investor, First Round Capital's Rob Hayes on How The Deal Of The Decade Originated and Why Product Orientated VC Is The Future

Assertion Supported

Corporate VC funds tend to launch near venture market peaks

“I find a strong correlation with when corporate funds get started and with the top of the VC market”

Rob Hayes Mar 21, 2016 ▶ 4:23 Uber's First Investor, First Round Capital's Rob Hayes on How The Deal Of The Decade Originated and Why Product Orientated VC Is The Future

Insight

Generational transition is a primary threat to venture capital firms

“Listen, I think that generational transition is one of the things that, you know, tears firms apart.”

Rob Hayes Mar 21, 2016 ▶ 19:02 Uber's First Investor, First Round Capital's Rob Hayes on How The Deal Of The Decade Originated and Why Product Orientated VC Is The Future

Opinion

Not enough venture capitalists provide tactical support to founders

“I think there are not enough venture capitalists who help really help with the tactical stuff as opposed to the very large strategic stuff.”

Rob Hayes Mar 21, 2016 ▶ 25:30 Uber's First Investor, First Round Capital's Rob Hayes on How The Deal Of The Decade Originated and Why Product Orientated VC Is The Future

Insight

Venture reputations take careers to build and one deal to destroy

“This is remember, this is a longterm business, you know, and reputations are made, you know, over careers and they're lost over deals.”

Rob Hayes Mar 21, 2016 ▶ 15:41 Uber's First Investor, First Round Capital's Rob Hayes on How The Deal Of The Decade Originated and Why Product Orientated VC Is The Future

The other half of the tape: Rob Hayes's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 10 times in 8 episodes on 20VC. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Harry Stebbings 4 Phin Barnes 2 Chris Sacca 2 Leah Busque 1 Josh Udashkin 1