The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
No seed investor predicted Uber's ultimate scale except its founders
“Anybody that says that they did, other than, you know, Travis and Ryan, who actually did kind of have that vision early on would be lying to you.”
First Round will not declare Uber a win until cash is returned
“I mean, my ultimate goal is to, you know, take money from my investors and invest it in companies and return multiples on that one. I haven't done that. Right. And so until that happens, I don't think I don't even call it a success right now. Come on. It's a m…”
VCs should treat founders as customers and LPs as shareholders
“Now, listen, we think of, you know, our LPs are, you know, our investors are very important to us, obviously, but I think of them as our shareholders. And if I make my customers very happy and have the best product out there, Then my shareholders are going to …”
Benchmark is the best venture firm at managing generational transitions
“And so what it means is, and I think that, you know, right now there's probably, you know, no one that does this better than benchmark in this space where they're continually bringing in young people and growing them from, you know, from, you know, relatively …”
VCs passed on Uber due to a small market and unknown CEO
“A lot of the reasons that people didn't invest were one, at the time it was an unknown guy, Ryan Graves running the company and two, It was seen as not a very big market.”
Ryan Graves built Uber's operational core and expansion playbook
“In Ryan's case, it turned out to be true. I mean, he, he's an amazing guy. And, you know, if you look at You know, the impact that he's had on Uber and the culture there and, you know, how they, you know, kind of started, you know, going from city to city and …”
Standard VC market size analysis failed to predict Uber's potential
“The market analysis that, that a lot of people were using was the wrong market analysis, because even though there was an actual car and it was black and it pulled up and it picked you up, this was not the black car market. This was something very, very differ…”
Uber's 2010 seed funding round was not overly competitive
“It wasn't, no, it wasn't a terribly competitive round. I don't think, I mean, it was a real negotiation around it, and there were a few other people around the table. You know, I don't think that, you know, it wasn't one of these crazy, I mean, this was You kn…”
First Round lost the Dropbox deal over a small valuation gap
“Actually had a term sheet out to him. Ended up losing on valuation and a very, very small differential on ballot valuation, which was a massive lesson for me in that, you know, there are crazy valuations and there are not crazy valuations, but when you're talk…”
Early-stage founders should spend 95% of their time on tactics
“Especially when you're a super early stage, you know, spend 95% of your time trying to make things happen on a day-to-day basis, and five percent or less of your time on things strategic.”
Corporate VC funds tend to launch near venture market peaks
“I find a strong correlation with when corporate funds get started and with the top of the VC market”
Generational transition is a primary threat to venture capital firms
“Listen, I think that generational transition is one of the things that, you know, tears firms apart.”