private markets

also referred to as: private market

32 statements across 26 episodes · 11 bullish · 12 bearish · 20 people on the record · first statement Oct 17, 2016 by Howard Lindzon · across every show →

Everything said about private markets, oldest first

Oct 17, 2016 bullish
Insight
Lindzon: Early-stage venture investors should hold roughly 100 startup investments
“In the private markets, I totally believe that the more the merrier, and not so much spray and pray, but having a hundred startups is not bad.”
Howard Lindzon Oct 17, 2016 ▶ 9:20 20VC: Investing Lessons From Fred Wilson & Brad Feld and Why Fundraising Is An Art & Not Everyone Can Be An Artist with Howard Lindzon Founder @ Stocktwits & Managing Partner @ Social Leverage
Jan 6, 2017 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Great enduring companies will remain privately held rather than going public
“I think when we look 20 years ahead our vision for the world is that the great enduring companies will actually be privately held and they will find liquidity in private markets rather than public markets.”
Henry Ward Jan 6, 2017 ▶ 22:58 20VC: eShares' Henry Ward on Why Portfolio Theory Is Wrong? Why Investors Will Never Take Market Risk & Why You have To Have A Line of Sight To A $Bn Outcome
Jan 6, 2017 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Capital markets suffer from public hyper-liquidity but zero private liquidity
“I think one of the big problems structurally in the capital markets world today is we have an environment of hyper liquidity in the public universe, and then zero liquidity in the private. And there's literally nothing in between right now.”
Henry Ward Jan 6, 2017 ▶ 12:38 20VC: eShares' Henry Ward on Why Portfolio Theory Is Wrong? Why Investors Will Never Take Market Risk & Why You have To Have A Line of Sight To A $Bn Outcome
May 1, 2017 negative
Assertion Supported
Clarkson: Private Multiples Exceeded Public Multiples in 2015-2016, Repelling Crossover Lenders
“Well, certainly the multiples paid in the private markets at one point in time were exceeded that in the public markets, and that was cause for a lot of concern in the late 15 into 16, and you saw the crossover investors pulling back because of that, and you a…”
Beezer Clarkson May 1, 2017 ▶ 17:39 20VC: Explosion of First Time Funds, Only 1 Mega Fund Raised: What The Heck Happened in Q1 Venture Markets with Beezer Clarkson, Managing Director @ Sapphire Ventures
Sep 24, 2018 neutral
Assertion Supported
Private startup valuations are seeing massive step-ups across all funding stages
“I would say the same feedback that your seed investors gave you on the step up from the C to the A, we're seeing the A to the B. And I've got to imagine it's the same for every subsequent round. It's just, if you have something that's working, I just continue …”
Sarah Tavel Sep 24, 2018 ▶ 20:20 20VC: Benchmark's Sarah Tavel on Why Investing Success Lies In Small Markets Adjacent To Very Large Ones, Why You Have To Be Judicious On When To Pay Up vs Be More Price Sensitive & Why Crypto Investing Is Like The Early Days of AdTech Investing
Mar 23, 2020
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kumar: Startup value creation has shifted primarily to private markets
“If you look at the new venture landscape, the value creation has really shifted to private markets. Companies add more value while they are still private than sometimes, and they do even after they've gone public.”
Manu Kumar Mar 23, 2020 ▶ 5:13 20VC: Multi-Stage Funds Investing At Seed Are Option Value Investing, Why The Biggest Enemy For Venture Firms Is Group Think and How Running Companies Changes Your Investment Mentality with Manu Kumar, Founder @ K9 Ventures
Aug 31, 2020 negative
Insight
Hartz: Staying private too long atrophies a startup's operational performance
“The muscles of really performing well can be atrophied in the darkness of the private markets.”
Kevin Hartz Aug 31, 2020 ▶ 10:34 20VC: SPACs. What Are They? Why Now? How Do They Change The Venture Landscape? Are They Better Than IPOs & Direct Listings? How Should Founders Think About Them? Kevin Hartz & Troy Steckenrider @ A*
Sep 18, 2020 negative
Opinion
Allred: Private Market Startup Valuations Are Paper Money and Don't Matter
“And the nice thing about private markets the way they are right now is it's all paper money. Like, whatever your last valuation was actually doesn't matter.”
Austen Allred Sep 18, 2020 ▶ 6:45 20VC: Lambda School Founder, Austen Allred on How To Assess Your Relationship To Risk and Money, Why San Francisco Is A Case Study For The Greatest Squandering of Wealth in History & Why Complexity Increases Exponentially with Scale
Jul 15, 2022 positive
Insight
Singlehurst: Private investing gives public market managers a 5-10 year advantage
“They basically get a window into the future. They get to see the businesses that will be in the public markets over the next five or 10 years and just get insight and understanding and relationships with those companies that you could never get if you weren't …”
Peter Singlehurst Jul 15, 2022 ▶ 8:02 Peter Singlehurst: The Most Powerful Investor You've Never Heard of | 20VC #907 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 14, 2022 positive
Opinion
Cathie Wood: Private Markets Value Innovation Better Than Public Markets
“The private markets have innovation more right in terms of valuation than the public markets do.”
Cathie Wood Nov 14, 2022 ▶ 9:36 Cathie Wood: Elon & Twitter; Why Facebook is a Value Stock Now; ARK's Performance | 20VC #949 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 24, 2023 negative
Insight
Levin: Private market valuations are skewed because only believers vote
“In the private markets, only the people who do believe get to vote, so that's gonna be a skewed vote.”
Joey Levin Feb 24, 2023 ▶ 15:06 IAC CEO Joey Levin: Why Value Investing is BS; The Most Insane Element of SPACs | 20VC #982 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 18, 2024 bullish
Assertion Contradicted
Gili Raanan: 2021-level valuations have returned to private markets
“20, 20, 21 is back for the past four or five weeks. We are definitely in in at least in private markets when we are in a new Bull run, you know, valuations are high, skyrocketing.”
Gili Raanan Mar 18, 2024 ▶ 55:15 Gili Raanan: One of the Best Seed Investor of All Time: 1 Decacon, 7 Unicorns, 4 Acquisitions| E1128 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 26, 2024 negative
Insight
Khan: Private markets face a talent shortage, not an idea shortage
“I actually don't think there is shortage of ideas in the private market, but I think there are shortage of talent to execute those ideas in private market.”
Imran Khan Aug 26, 2024 ▶ 3:40 Imran Khan: Why the IPO Market is Not Closed & Lessons From Taking Snap & Alibaba Public | E1194 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 26, 2024 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Khan: Private tech valuations have not corrected to match public market realities
“In the private market, that valuation didn't really correct, and so they want to go up public at a valuation that just doesn't make sense in a public market, right?”
Imran Khan Aug 26, 2024 ▶ 1:46 Imran Khan: Why the IPO Market is Not Closed & Lessons From Taking Snap & Alibaba Public | E1194 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 8, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Harry Stebbings: SpaceX has unprecedented institutional demand in private markets
“I've been in private markets for 10 years. I've never seen institutional demand be so concentrated towards one company stock.”
Harry Stebbings Jan 8, 2025 ▶ 1:03:25 Dan Gill, CPO @Carvana: The Most Wild Story in Public Markets | E1243 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 17, 2025 positive
Opinion
Public market investors are far more sophisticated than private market investors
“Public market investors really surprised me. They are way more sophisticated than what I thought. I thought that initially when we went public, I thought that, you know, it's all about the private market, those investors, but public market investors are super …”
Eran Zinman Jan 17, 2025 ▶ 45:44 Eran Zinman, Co-Founder & Co-CEO @Monday.com: Going Upmarket, International and Multi-Product |E1247 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 19, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Singlehurst: Consistent institutional growth investors won't double or triple in number
“But, you know, I think we're already at the stage where there are a handful at the growth stage of, you know, let's call it 10, maybe you get to 20, of institutions that are consistent presences in this part of the market. And I could probably name you those. …”
Peter Singlehurst Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 58:40 Peter Singlehurst: Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvalt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 19, 2025
Insight
Singlehurst: Public and Private Growth Investing Share Core Analytical Questions
“The core analytical questions I think are pretty similar. You have different sources of information, whether you're doing public or private, but like you're still looking for the same characteristics, right? Like if you make it very simple, you're still lookin…”
Peter Singlehurst Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 43:16 Peter Singlehurst: Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvalt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 19, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Singlehurst: Active growth-stage private market participants have consolidated since 2020-2021
“But I think there are fewer participants in the growth stage today than there was in 2020 and 20 21. And you could say, well, those are anomalous years, but I actually, I still think there has been consolidation within the growth stage of the private market.”
Peter Singlehurst Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 58:17 Peter Singlehurst: Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvalt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 5, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moore: Frontier tech giants may stay private long-term on private demand
“If we really are talking about companies that are going to get to some level of AGI such that they're going to be, you know, not just multi-trillions, but potentially larger than that. If we're talking about how Starlink and, you know, the kind of assets being…”
Bucky Moore May 5, 2025 ▶ 12:57 Bucky Moore @ Lightspeed Venture Partners: Why You Cannot Do VC If You Do Not Do Pre-Seed · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 22, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
O'Driscoll: Private market capital remains cheaper than public market capital
“And there's no doubt that bizarrely enough, The cost of capital in the private markets remains cheaper than the public markets.”
Rory O'Driscoll May 22, 2025 ▶ 47:38 Rippling vs. Deel Lawsuit: WTF Happens Now? The Future of the Late Stage Private Market · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 14, 2025 negative
Insight
Tenev: Retail private market access fails due to adverse selection
“The problem that's happened in private markets in general is The best companies have lots of options. They can raise money from anywhere. So they sort of like don't consider retail. They don't consider retail. And that leads to this adverse selection problem w…”
Vlad Tenev Jul 14, 2025 ▶ 19:08 Robinhood Founder & CEO, Vlad Tenev: Robinhood’s $85BN Resurgence & Tokenizing SpaceX & OpenAI · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 21, 2025 negative
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Ill-informed regulation trapped high-growth tech companies in private markets
“There's very few high growth companies in the public markets because all that growth has been annexed by the private markets as a bizarre outcome of, you know, ill-informed regulation.”
Rory O'Driscoll Aug 21, 2025 ▶ 7:41 Databricks at $100BN, CoreWeave’s $11B Debt Bet & Nubank’s $2.5B Profit Shocker - Ep.19 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 21, 2025 negative
Insight
O'Driscoll: Private market investors lack stop-losses and absorb full downside risk
“The interesting comment is in the public markets, when things start going south, because there's liquidity, everybody can have a stop loss of 10% and get out, and then someone else can come in and think it's going to turn, and you know, yeah, yeah, you can hol…”
Rory O'Driscoll Aug 21, 2025 ▶ 15:59 Databricks at $100BN, CoreWeave’s $11B Debt Bet & Nubank’s $2.5B Profit Shocker - Ep.19 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 4, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Public markets offer cheaper capital than private markets
“The public markets now are giving me cheaper capital than the private markets, because if you're, if all the numbers are as reported, you're getting roughly 10 X revenues, and the fine folks at Figma are getting between 17 and 30, depending on how available yo…”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 4, 2025 ▶ 43:51 Anthropic Raises $13BN & OpenAI Buys Statsig for $1.1BN All Stock · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 20, 2025
Insight
O'Driscoll: Private market trading strategies fail when market dynamics turn downward
“The key sense you're missing is you can't execute a trading strategy if they're private, because when things go wrong, the liquidity won't be, when things go right, you can trade on your way up, but it would be, it'll be a lot harder to get out of one of these…”
Rory O'Driscoll Nov 20, 2025 ▶ 37:43 Peter Thiel and Softbank Sell NVIDIA - Why? & Why VC Will Hit $1TRN and The Opening of Retail · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 15, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Most AI value creation will happen in private markets, not public
“And if you look at what's happening in the private versus public markets now, the size of the winners from a new tech wave, that's going to happen in the private markets.”
David George Dec 15, 2025 ▶ 5:09 a16z's David George on the Most Controversial Bet at a16z & Do Margins and Revenue Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 15, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Tech private markets have reached over $5 trillion in market capitalization
“The private markets have grown 10 X over 10 years, right? It's over five trillion dollars of market cap now in our market.”
David George Dec 15, 2025 ▶ 3:18 a16z's David George on the Most Controversial Bet at a16z & Do Margins and Revenue Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 22, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Public Markets Ceded 3-5 Years of Company Growth to Private Markets
“The public markets ceded another three to five years of growth to the private markets, which meant market expansion for venture, And market contraction for small cap publics.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 1:22:21 Elon Musk vs Sam Altman | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Pricing? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 7, 2026 negative
Insight
Cohen: Avoiding margin scrutiny in private markets builds weak businesses
“This mechanics of maybe it's better to be in the private market because nobody will look at how I'm defining revenue, or what's gross margins, or what contribution margin, I think it doesn't create a good business.”
Ariel Cohen Feb 7, 2026 ▶ 12:01 20VC: From $6.2BN Market Cap to $2.8BN: What Is Not Translating About Navan's Public Story | Are Any Public Company CEOs Actually Happy? | Why Navan Built It's Own Customer Service AI and What it Could Mean For Customer Service AI with Ariel Cohen
Feb 23, 2026 neutral
What-if
Swisher: 18 of today's top 20 private platform companies would have been public a decade ago
“At the top, call it 20, rough just as 20 companies in the private markets. 18 of those would probably be public today, a decade ago.”
Lucas Swisher Feb 23, 2026 ▶ 6:11 Insights from Coatue's Growth Investor Lucas Swisher · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 23, 2026 neutral
Insight
O'Driscoll: Late-stage tech companies should not stay private during peak demand
“There is no argument for overstaying your welcome in the private markets at this point.”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 23, 2026 ▶ 52:38 Cursor Acquired for $60BN | Anthropic Hits $1TRN in Secondary Markets & Figma, Adobe, Canva Dead? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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