open source models

also referred to as: open source model · open-source models

30 statements across 27 episodes · 16 bullish · 8 bearish · 26 people on the record · first statement May 3, 2023 by Vince Hankes · across every show →

Everything said about open source models, oldest first

May 3, 2023 negative
Insight
Hankes: Resource-Constrained Startups Shouldn't Build Open-Source AI Infrastructure
“And some companies will choose that path, but by and large for the vast majority of companies, particularly ones that have scarce resources, which are many of the ones I work with, you know, I don't want you spending time building infrastructure and scaling op…”
Vince Hankes May 3, 2023 ▶ 21:49 Vince Hankes: Why We Put $300M into OpenAI; Sam Altman's Pitch; Lessons from Josh Kushner | E1009 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 30, 2023 neutral
What-if
Douwe Kiela: The open-source AI ecosystem exists solely due to Meta's LLaMA
“This whole flourishing that you see right now of open source models that basically comes from Meta's generosity in giving Lama away for free. And if they hadn't done that, then you wouldn't see that.”
Douwe Kiela Jun 30, 2023 ▶ 32:10 Douwe Kiela: Why Data Size Matters More Than Model Size; Why Open Source Isn't Going to Win | E1032 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 25, 2023 bullish
Prediction Held up
Howie Liu: Open-Source AI Will Solve Enterprise Self-Hosted Deployment Needs
“And of course, there are going to be open source models that help bridge that gap. You're going to be able to adopt your own models that are pre-trained.”
Howie Liu Aug 25, 2023 ▶ 18:50 Howie Liu: Decoding Airtable's $11B Valuation; The Impending AI Revolution in Enterprise | E1053 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 29, 2024 positive
Insight
Mensch: Open-source models provide a shortcut to enterprise software distribution
“A shortcut to distribution is to create demand through open source models.”
Arthur Mensch Apr 29, 2024 ▶ 28:03 Arthur Mensch: Open vs Closed - Who Wins and Mistral's Position | E1146 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 12, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wang: Most serious enterprises will adopt on-premise AI models
“And this is actually why I think there's a very there's a very big sort of opportunity for whether it's open source models or the llama models or the mistral models or whatnot, basically these models that can go on prem and that enterprises can take. And then …”
Alex Wang Jun 12, 2024 ▶ 24:15 Alex Wang: Why Data Not Compute is the Bottleneck to Foundation Model Performance | E1164 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 4, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Kolter: Open-sourcing models at GPT-4 capability poses low catastrophic risk
“If you look at the current best models that there are right now, so things like GPT-IV, Claude, 3.5 Gemini, things like this, I would not currently be all that nervous about having an open source model that was as capable as these in terms of the catastrophic …”
Zico Kolter Sep 4, 2024 ▶ 46:53 Zico Kolter: OpenAI's Newest Board Member on The Biggest Questions and Concerns in AI Safety | E1197 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 4, 2024 positive
Opinion
Sam Altman: Open source AI models and integrated APIs will coexist
“There's clearly a really important place in the ecosystem for open source models. There's also Really good open source models that now exist. I think there's also a place for, like, nicely offered, well integrated services and APIs, and, you know, I think it's…”
Sam Altman Nov 4, 2024 ▶ 9:05 Sam Altman: What Startups Will be Steamrolled by OpenAI & Where is Opportunity | E1223 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 18, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dedicated AI models will be built on open-source, not closed frontier models
“So obviously there will be a world A few frontier models and a lot of dedicated models, and dedicated models will be built on the top of, I think is more likely to be built on the top of open source models that, you know, close source frontier models.”
Daniel Dines Dec 18, 2024 ▶ 7:51 Daniel Dines, UiPath CEO & Founder: Why Agents Do Not Mean RPA is F*** | E1240 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 negative
Opinion
Krieger: Distillation Is Unnecessary for Frontier Open-Source AI Progress
“I think the open source models, Like take Llama, for example, like they've been able to do that from their own research and perspective and data ingestion and training. And so I guess I would say distillation does not feel essential in order to unlock those th…”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 29:39 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 11, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
Flanagan: Enterprise AI stacks will dynamic-route between open and paid models
“I think that most companies at some point will have a The ability to like switch between open source models, paid models, whatever model is the best model for their task, because it's going to help them optimize their costs.”
Kieran Flanagan Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 47:42 20Growth: The Death of Growth Teams? | How Hubspot Use AI to Triple Email Conversion | The Future of AI SEO | Why Prompt Engineering is the New Coding | What Every CMO Needs to Know About AI in 2025
Jul 17, 2025 bearish
Insight
O'Driscoll: AI labs will stop releasing open-source models due to economics
“If you're in the quadrant of patriotic and greedy, which let's be frank, most of that quote people are, you ain't going to be releasing any open source models right now, because it's a Value destroyer from an economics perspective. And you are, you have the wh…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 17, 2025 ▶ 31:12 Windsurf x Google x Cognition: Full Breakdown: Who Made Money, Who Did Not · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 17, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2030
Lloyd: Open-Source Models Will Not Win at the AI Frontier
“I don't think open either, if I'm being honest. The reason I don't think open, like, is that it's just so damn expensive to build these things, and so what's the economic incentive?”
Zach Lloyd Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 40:38 20VC: The Startup Adding $1M ARR Every Week | Competing Against OpenAI's Codex and Claude Code: Who Wins | Why Gemini is Failing and GPT-5 Is Winning | Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | The Ugly Truth About AI Coding with Zach Lloyd, Warp
Apr 7, 2026 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2031
Hassabis: Open-source AI models will lag frontier proprietary models by six months
“I think increasingly you know, what you're gonna see is the open source models are probably one step back from the absolute frontier. You know, it usually takes about six months for the open source community to sort of re-implement and figure out what those id…”
Demis Hassabis Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 10:45 Demis Hassabis: Why AGI is Bigger than the Industrial Revolution & Where Are The Bottlenecks in AI · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 11, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Reyna: Enterprises waste three months trying open-source before returning to ElevenLabs
“We're like, yeah, we could go with open source models. Excellent. Do it. You try to operationalize it and they've lost three months and then they come back.”
Carles Reina Apr 11, 2026 ▶ 32:37 ElevenLabs: Building an AI Sales Machine & Why We Set a 20x Sales Quota · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 11, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Reyna: Open-source AI models won't commoditize ElevenLabs due to enterprise complexity
“A lot of people were talking last year about, like, oh, open source models are gonna take over, like, even on the AI voices space, like, you're gonna get commoditized and so on. And for a period of time, I kind of believed it. I was like, yeah, I mean, There i…”
Carles Reina Apr 11, 2026 ▶ 31:25 ElevenLabs: Building an AI Sales Machine & Why We Set a 20x Sales Quota · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 13, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Grinberg: Open-source models can execute 80% to 90% of frontier AI tasks
“Probably, like, 80 to 90%. It's typically the planning that really needs the frontier models.”
Matan Grinberg Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 22:19 OpenAI vs Anthropic vs Open-Source | Token Maxing, AI Hangovers & The Coming ROI Reckoning · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 15, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Perplexity will transition existing features to self-served open-source models
“We're training our own models post training it on top of amazing open source models, and that will bring down the cost that we currently spend on frontier model tokens. We expect to continue to use frontier models for designing new experiences and new capabili…”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 1:19:45 Perplexity CEO: Micron Will Be More Valuable Than Meta & How Export Controls Helped Not Hurt China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 18, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Randle: Outside of China, there are basically no good open-source AI models
“Outside of China, there are basically no good open source models.”
Everett Randle Jun 18, 2026 ▶ 42:53 Anthropic's Fable Banned by US Government | Wix & Adobe Hit All-Time Lows | Mistral Raising at $20BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 20, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Petersen: Flexport will shift to open-source AI models to lower costs
“We're using OpenAI. We're using Anthropic. We're going to increasingly use open source models to save money, but also because we don't today have a budget constraint on our Anthropic contract.”
Ryan Petersen Jun 20, 2026 ▶ 15:02 Flexport CEO: Two Questions Every Founder Needs to Ask · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 6, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mignano: Enterprises will optimize AI spend via open source and routing
“In that world, enterprises and individuals are probably optimizing for a couple of things. I think they're probably optimizing for cost, right? They're starting to think about the trade-offs between intelligence and spend and how they can optimize their token …”
Mike Mignano Jul 6, 2026 ▶ 16:17 Why Now is the Time for the App Layer | Why Startups Should be TokenMaxxing | Mike Mignano, USV · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 11, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jain: Enterprise AI adoption hurdle is Chinese model origin, not open source
“From a point of view of open source and using the model, everybody's going to be fine. The question is going to be, are they okay with the Chinese model or not? That's the only question here. It's not open source versus closed source.”
Arvind Jain Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 13:53 ⁠Why OpenAI and Anthropic Won't Win the App Layer | Glean Founder · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 11, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029
Jain: Majority of enterprise AI workloads will be open source within three years
“Well, we've been telling customers, I believe that majority, majority of enterprise workloads will actually be on open source models in three years for sure.”
Arvind Jain Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 17:21 ⁠Why OpenAI and Anthropic Won't Win the App Layer | Glean Founder · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 25, 2026 bullish
Insight
Nitski: Open-source AI does not cannibalize frontier data demand
“I wouldn't say that open source model improvements cannibalize our core business because data is most valuable on the frontier of model performance, so each of our customers has their own unique goals and is purchasing eval and training data sets To fill gaps …”
Osvald Nitski Jul 25, 2026 ▶ 1:33 Mercor Head of Product on Revenue Concentration from Frontier Labs
Jul 27, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Enterprise AI workloads will split across proprietary and open-source models
“So I think, you know, you're going to have the combination of something like that, a family of models from Anthropic, and then a set of open source models and things that you train with your own data, and you're going to look across that whole tapestry and say…”
Matt Murphy Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 26:37 Will Open-Source Threaten Anthropic's Business & Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | Matt Murphy
Jul 27, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Open-source models will not displace top foundation models like Anthropic
“I think the foundation models, let's say specifically Anthropic, have such special models. This can be hard for somebody to just kind of say, I've used open source with my data. It's going to be functional and positive for some amount of what you're doing, but…”
Matt Murphy Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 0:00 Will Open-Source Threaten Anthropic's Business & Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | Matt Murphy
Aug 2, 2026 bearish
Insight
Angelopoulos: Local Hosting Does Not Eliminate Pre-Trained AI Model Backdoor Risks
“What if the other side that's interacting with the chat bot can, you know, build in a certain code word or a certain like character sequence that then jail breaks that model and gets it to reveal all the data to me. So it can sort of like vomit out all of the …”
Anastasios Angelopoulos Aug 2, 2026 ▶ 18:35 Arena CEO: There Will be a $100BN US Open-Source Model & Data is a Trillion Dollar Market
Aug 5, 2026
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026
Arora: Open-source models will automate offensive cyberattacks within months
“I think in two, three months from now, open source have distilled all these capabilities, and we'll find open source models out there, which you can find to you if you're an attacker, to actually do this on a task basis.”
Nikesh Arora Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 23:03 Leo Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness Blows Up | Moonshot AI Raises $3.5B at $35B
Aug 22, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Murdock: Token Cost Disparity Will Drive Massive Open-Source Model Adoption
“And if you're looking at a Frontier model with double dollar digit cost per token, and you're looking at an open source model that's 10, 11 cents per token, while all tokens aren't created equal, it's still enough of a difference that there's going to be a mas…”
Jerry Murdock Aug 22, 2026 ▶ 11:31 The AI Bubble WILL Burst | Should we be fearful of Chinese Open-Source | Jerry Murdock
Aug 29, 2026 negative
Opinion
Reyes: Labeling open-source AI 'Chinese models' is a frontier lab psyop
“I think calling open source models Chinese models is a psyop by the frontier labs to basically trick people into thinking that they're scary and otherize them.”
Eno Reyes Aug 29, 2026 ▶ 44:25 Should American Enterprises Work With Open-Source Chinese Models? | Only 10% of Neo-labs survive
Sep 3, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Open-Source AI Models Trail OpenAI and Anthropic by Six Months
“Today we can feel a little bit safe because OpenAI and Anthropic have this and no one else does, but there's open source models. They're six months behind.”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 3, 2026 ▶ 20:40 NVIDIA Crushes Quarter | OpenAI Cuts Off Cursor | Instinct Hits $2.5B Valuation
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