The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Brundage: Scalable AI vulnerability discovery could cause a catastrophic cyber attack
“It could be that you know, something truly catastrophic could happen if you sort of combine the, Scalability of AI and digital technology in general with, like, the adaptability of human intelligence for, like, finding vulnerabilities. If you put those togethe…”
Brundage: Reducing AI existential risk by 0.1% preserves massive expected value
“Reducing the probability of existential risk is super important, even if AI is you know, decades or centuries away, and even if we can only, you know, decrease the probability, you know, of that happening by, like.1% or whatever in expectation, that's, like, a…”
Brundage: Technical transparency in AGI could enable international non-aggression pacts
“And I think if you actually had the full development of the FAT methods, and you had accountability and transparency for even general AI systems or superintelligent systems, I think that would open up the door for a lot more collaboration. If you could sort of…”
Brundage: AGI accountability may be easier than thought if corrigibility stabilizes feedback
“Corrigibility, what he calls corrigibility, and what others have called corrigibility, might actually be, like, a stable basin of attraction, in the sense that if a system, you know is designed in such a way that it's able to, like, take critical feedback, and…”
Brundage: China will not slow AI deployment over interpretability concerns
“In China, there's, like, much let, or I haven't seen as much concern about interpretability, though there are some, like, good papers coming out of China, but in terms of, like, governance, I haven't gotten the sense that they're gonna, like, hold back the dep…”
Brundage: AI Governance Lacks the Methodological Rigor of Climate Science
“People have been talking about AI AI ethics and AI governance for a long time, but there hasn't been much dialogue between, you know, this world and then the other worlds of, like, you know, science policy and public policy, and, you know, one way to think abo…”
Brundage: AI will achieve superhuman performance in StarCraft within three years
“Yeah, I think there will be Superhuman, Starcraft and Dota too, probably in that time horizon. I said in, I think early 2017 that it would be the end of, that I gave like 50% chance by the end of 2018. So this gives me more runway. I'll say, yeah, like, 70% co…”
Brundage: Responsible disclosure norms are missing for AI adversarial vulnerabilities
“So things like responsible disclosure, when you find out about a new vulnerability is something that's pervasive in the computer security community, but hasn't yet been seriously discussed for things like adversarial examples, where you might want to say, hey,…”
Brundage: Offense generally defeats defense in adversarial machine learning competitions
“If you look at the, like, offense and defense and competitions on adversarial examples, like, the offense generally wins. Like, we don't really know how to make neural nets robust against deliberate or even unintentional things that could mess them up.”
Brundage: Near-term AI fairness issues are fundamentally human value alignment problems
“You could frame a lot of current issues as value alignment problems, so things around bias and fairness. So I think ultimately, you know, there's a question of how do you extract human preferences, and how do you deal with the fact that humans might not have c…”
Brundage: FHI relies on DeepMind and OpenAI ties, lacks major compute
“At the Future of Humanity Institute, we have a lot of relationships with organizations like DeepMind and OpenAI and others but, you know, we don't have, like, a ton of, you know, GPUs or TPUs here like, running the latest experiments outside of, you know, some…”