The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,002 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 49 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
McGrew: In five years, AI agents won't be a single category
“Probably in five years, we'll look back, we'll be like, well, AI agents, there wasn't even a thing at all, right?
We were actually doing all these different things.”
McGrew: AI capabilities will outpace adoption over the next five years
“What the world is gonna look like over the next five years is that the capabilities just race ahead and race ahead and race ahead.”
Truell: All Software Development Will Flow Through Models Within Five Years
“And I think we took a step back and realized that if we were being really consistent with our beliefs, you know, there was going to be an opportunity for all of coding to change in the next five years and for all of software development to flow through models.”
Chas Englander: AI models outperform humans at structuring public filing data
“You know, if you look at some of these data providers, they've got humans reading information from say public filings and put it in that structured format. You know, the bulk of the work that we're doing, what we're seeing is models are already more accurate t…”
Chas Englander: Top financial firms have already fully automated basic data gathering
“But I think some of the more lower level, more kind of data gathering and presenting types of tasks are fully already being automated at the top firms.”
Englander: AI workflows will become fully autonomous in 2025
“We think the biggest shift this year is going to be that even that element won't happen, and therefore elements of the user interface we think will be less important. In other words, these tasks will happen Entirely autonomously. You know, as you arrive in the…”
Englander: Global finance technology buyers are surprisingly based in San Francisco
“There's a surprising number of decision makers for global firms around sort of technology implementation in San Francisco. It's not out of New York or out of London, it's out of San Francisco.”
Kaplan: AI may execute multi-month tasks within the next few years
“And this kind of picture suggests that over the next few years, we may reach a point where AI models can do tasks that don't just take us minutes or hours, but days, weeks, months, years, et cetera.”
Kaplan: AI scaling curves point smoothly toward human-level AGI
“I think that scaling Really suggests a kind of smooth curve towards what I expect is kind of human level AI or AGI.”
Kaplan: Most AI value will come from end-to-end frontier models
“I think that you can do a lot of very simple bite-sized tasks, but I think it's just much more convenient to be able to use an AI model that can do a very complex task end-to-end, rather than requiring us as humans to sort of orchestrate a much dumber model to…”
Finn: Diverse Home Training Matches Custom Target-Environment Performance
“And we find that if we actually increase the amount of homes, the amount of locations that are represented in the data, The performance increases, which is great. And it actually gets to the same level of performance as if we train on data from that target env…”
Finn: Frontier models struggle with visual understanding for robotics
“In general, we found that these frontier models generally struggle with visual understanding as it pertains to robotics. Which makes sense because in general, these models aren't kind of really targeting, ah, many physical applications and have very little dat…”
Chelsea Finn: Real robot data cannot be replaced by synthetic data
“I think that at the end of the day, there's going to be no replacement for real data. And so we're like large amounts of real robot data. It's going to be a necessary component of any like system that's going to work in a generalizable way.”
Jumper: Equivariance explains only 2-3 GDT of AlphaFold 2's 30-point gain
“The sixth row there, no IPA, invariant point attention, that removes all the equivariance in alpha fold, and it hurts a bit, but only a bit. Alpha fold itself on this GDT scale that you can see on the left graph, alpha fold two was about 30 GDT better than alp…”
Jumper: Scientific AI will eventually be driven by broad, general models
“I think we will start to see this on more general systems, be them LLMs or others, That we will find more and more scientific knowledge within them, and we'll use them for important, important purposes, and I think this is really where this is going, and I thi…”
Srinivas: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Both Build Their Own Browsers
“That said, I'm fully working with the assumption that OpenAI will also build its own browser. Anthropic will also try to build its own browser.”
Srinivas: Phone Makers Will Offer Multiple AI Search Alternatives
“The phone makers will start offering all of them as alternatives. It's not going to be like a locked-in default search option.”
Srinivas: OpenAI's built-in search features in ChatGPT did not kill Perplexity
“OpenAI has perplexity within ChatGPT that did not kill any of these companies.”
Srinivas: Perplexity can reach billions annually in subscription revenue alone
“We think, like, we can grow at least, you know, a few billions a year in just subs, which is a great business.”
Srinivas: SEO-gaming websites will definitely have a harder time
“But those who are trying to game the SEO system and trying to get traffic, I think they're definitely going to have a harder time.”
Garry Tan: CS majors face higher unemployment than art history majors
“The craziest stat, I think this came out of the New York fed in February of this year computer science majors You know, obviously this is not the people in this room. This is just, like, out of, like, you know, a normal distribution of all computer science maj…”
Hu: Cursor scaled from $1M to $100M revenue in one year
“We've seen crazy growth unlike anything, only possible with, right now with AI, like all these companies that we work with, zero to twelve million in 12 months. The cursor story where they went zero to one in one year, the next one to a hundred. This is, like,…”
Chollet: Scaling LLMs 50,000x Only Lifted ARC Accuracy to 10%
“And from at the time, back in 2019 to now, with a model like GPT 4.5, for instance, there's been a roughly 50,000 X scale up of basal alarms. And we went from zero percent accuracy on that benchmark to roughly 10%, which is not a lot.”
Chollet: Base LLMs score 0% and static reasoning scores 1-2% on ARC-2
“Well, if you take Bazel Alums, model Slack, GPT-IV-IV-V, LAMA-IV, it's simple, they get zero percent. There is simply no way to do these tasks simply via memorization. Next, if you look at static reasoning systems, so systems that use a single chain of tasks t…”
Chollet: Gradient descent requires 3 to 4 orders of magnitude more data than humans
“Gradient descent requires vast amounts of data to distill simple abstractions. Many orders of magnitude more data than what humans need. Roughly three to four orders of magnitude more.”
Chollet: SOTA test-time adaptation takes thousands in compute to solve ARC-1
“Even the latest set of the art CTA techniques they still need thousands of dollars of compute to solve arc one at human level. And that doesn't even scale to arc two.”
Chollet: AI will evolve into meta-learners synthesizing software on the fly
“AI is going to move towards systems that are more like programmers that approach a new task by writing software for it. And when faced with a new task, your programmer like MetaLearner will synthesize on the fly a program or model that is adapted to the task.”
Nadella: Just-in-time generated and packaged software will coexist
“So I think, yes, you can generate applications just in time. You could have a prefab application that is really helping with the feedback loop to the model, and I think both of these things will exist together.”
Nadella: Software engineers will become architects as everyone builds software
“What I think will happen is all of us are going to be creating software, but there is going to be a job called a software engineer. It's going to be different, but I look at it, right? You are really taking a software engineer and saying you're now a software …”
Nadella: Microsoft achieved physics breakthrough to fabricate Majorana quantum chip
“Finally we've had a physics breakthrough, and we were able to actually fabricate that particle, and so therefore that's what has led to this chip.”
Altman: OpenAI will soon run world's largest, most expensive infrastructure
“I think we will run the, like, largest and most expensive piece of infrastructure in the world pretty soon.”
Altman: ChatGPT will become third biggest website, possibly first
“It'll be the third at some point, hopefully someday the first if our current growth rates continue”
Altman: AI models like o3 can act as junior employees executing multi-hour tasks
“But now you start to see things where you can like really give a task to Codex, for example or to deep research, and you have this thing go off and do a bunch of stuff and come back to you with like a proposal. It's like a very junior employee that can work on…”
Altman: AI progressed to PhD-level intelligence across most areas in five years
“In five years we have gone from this, like, thing that could barely write a sentence to a thing that is like, you know, PhD level intelligence in most areas.”
Altman predicts AI will maintain its rapid rate of progress for five more years
“Five more years I think we'll be able to maintain the same rate of progress”
Altman: AI's economic impact will be faster and steeper than the transistor's
“The analogy I like most for AI is the transistor, like the historical tech, technical analogy. You know, some people figured out like a new, really important scientific discovery. And society, the economy, whatever you want to call it, just got to work. Just d…”
Musk: AI could expand the economy thousands or millions of times
“You know, the economy, assuming we don't, things don't go awry, and like AI doesn't kill us all and itself then you'll see ultimately an economy that is not, not 10 times more than the current economy. Ultimately, like if we become, say, or whatever our future…”
Musk: AI developers have run out of high-quality human pre-training data
“We, we've kind of run out of pre-training data or human generated pre like human generated data. You run out of tokens pretty fast certainly of high quality tokens.”
Musk: Humanoid robots will outnumber humans five to tenfold
“I mean, I'd predict that there's gonna be,
At least five times as many humanoid robots as there are humans, maybe 10 times.”
Musk: There will be 5 to 10 frontier AI models globally
“I do think there will be several deep intelligences, maybe at least five maybe as much as 10. I'm not sure that there's going to be hundreds, but it's probably close, like maybe there'll be like 10 or something like that of which maybe four will be in the US.”
Waymo autonomous vehicles still rely heavily on human teleoperation
“Like, you may see Waymo's going around, and they look driverless, but, you know, there's still a lot of teleoperation and a lot of human in the loop of a lot of this driving.”
Truell: Software creation will move to higher abstraction levels within a decade
“We think that over the next five to 10 years, it will be possible to invent a new way to build software that's higher level and more productive. That's just as still down to defining how you want the software to work and how you want the software to look.”
Truell: AI coding tools will become 10x more useful within a year
“And I think that the game in the next six months to a year is to make both of those, you know, an order of magnitude more useful.”
Truell: Major AI labs are currently bottlenecked by software engineering capacity
“The next AI model, which, you know, if you talk to the labs, largely they're bottlenecked on engineering capacity.”
Truell: AI models will mediate all programming, requiring complete UI control
“All of programming is going to flow through these models. It's going to look very different in the future. You're going to need to control the UI.”