why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Wang: Meta rebuilt frontier AI lab from scratch after Llama 4 stalled
“Lama four wasn't on the trajectory that was needed for Meta. And so I got in there and we kind of did a zero based build of how do you know, build an entire frontier lab you know, in some ways kind of from scratch, obviously using a lot of what we had and move…”
Assertion Supported
Doctorow: Facebook allowed non-members to scrape group membership lists
“She discovered that you could enumerate the membership of any Facebook group. Even if you weren't a member of it. And when she reported it to Facebook, they said that is a feature request, not a bug report. We will send it off to the product team. And when she…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Best: Newsletters will replace social feeds for news within five years
“I think the answer is it won't replace the social network aspect of it. The thing that Facebook and the social networks are great at is having the relationship between you and like the people, you know, in real life... The part of it that should absolutely be …”
Assertion Supported
Pincus: Early backers sold Facebook stock because none foresaw its ultimate scale
“I don't think Reed or I Ever imagined how, I know none of us ever imagined how big this, Peter Thiel, all of us, we all sold our stock in Facebook, so we voted with our shares, you know, none of us could have ever described how big this all got.”
Assertion Partly supported
Buchheit: FriendFeed created the first Like button before Facebook
“We actually created the like button, so like, the very first like button was on friend feed, and then mysteriously appeared on Facebook a number of months later.”
Assertion Supported
McCarthy: Facebook 2014 Study Proved News Feed Content Influences User Moods
“Facebook is like, did this study about mood manipulation where they were showing people either positive or more negative content, and then showing that this would cause the person themselves to make more positive or negative posts with the conclusion that they…”
Assertion Partly supported
Caldwell: Early Facebook scaled by duplicating separate code and databases per school
“The way they scaled Facebook was to have a completely separate PHP instance running for every school that they copy and pasted the code to. They would have a separate MySQL server for every school, and they would have like a memcache instance for every school.”
Assertion Supported
Doshi: LivingSocial pivoted to daily deals due to poor retention
“LivingSocial literally had to pivot the entire company to basically competing with Groupon because the app wasn't very retentive in those days.”
Assertion Supported
Gil: Facebook used email scrapers and European name ads to acquire users
“So with Facebook, that was email scrapers, and it was, you know, they were literally running ads against people's names in Europe to try and acquire European users, for example.”
Assertion Contradicted
Zuckerberg: Entire Facebook management team left within a year of rejecting Yahoo offer
“The whole management team was gone within within about a year after that.”
Assertion Supported
Zuckerberg: Facebook's IPO CFO had never taken a company public before
“The CFO who took the company public had not taken a company public before, right? And a lot of his background was in you know, production development at Genentech before.”
Assertion Supported
Rossmann: Make School Has Run Income Share Programs Since 2014
“We've been running the income share based program since 2014. So we actually have five years of data, our students getting jobs at Facebook, Google and Tesla and all these great companies.”
Assertion Partly supported
Bartram: Facebook provides interview prep classes to all applicants
“Facebook, for example, has started providing a sort of an interview prep class to everyone who applies so that they're sort of going over the material.”