Assertion certainty 4/5 debate potential 3/5

McGrew: Nobody believed next-token prediction would work before GPT-1

Bob McGrew · Bob McGrew: AI Agents And The Path To AGI · Y Combinator · Jan 31, 2025 · at 4:02

Former OpenAI Chief Research Officer Bob McGrew discusses Alec Radford's early work on GPT-1 and the skepticism around next-token prediction.

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“And the core idea behind GPT-ONE is that if you have a transformer and you apply this super simple objective of guessing the next token, guessing the next word, that that would be enough signal that you could actually have something that would be able to generate coherent text. And in retrospect, it sounds sort of obvious, right? Like You know, clearly this was going to work, but no one thought this would work at the time.”

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