The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 398 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Harari: Both Hamas and Israel committed atrocities in the recent war
“The truth is that during the war, the recent war between Israel and Hamas, Hamas committed atrocities and also Israel committed atrocities. This is the truth. It's not that, oh, there is the Palestinian truth that only the Israelis committed atrocities, and th…”
Al Olama: Social media platforms algorithmically muted content regarding Gaza
“You see, for a long period of time, there was algorithmic muting for certain content. So, you couldn't see, say certain things about Gaza, for example, right?”
Musk: Some outsourcing companies have gamed the US H-1B visa system
“It's certainly, it would be accurate to say that there's, you know, like some of the outsourcing companies have kind of gamed the system on, on the H-one B front, and we need to stop the gaming of the system, you know”
JC: No data suggests continuous glucose monitors help non-diabetics
“CGM, again, I'm not a huge fan of CGM. It's great for diabetics, but in non-diabetics, there's no data that suggests it helps non-diabetics. I mean, apart from making people feel scared of every single food on the planet that spikes their blood glucose, and yo…”
Chouksey: Andrew Huberman has a conflict of interest through an AG1 investment
“So, Huberman also has a conflict of interest, because AGI promises they have all of these things, and Huberman has an investment in AGI.”
Ather's auto hill-hold feature lasts 10 minutes while Ola's lasts one
“The way we implemented and the way Ola implemented I think Ola's same capability would last a much shorter time. So if you engage this hill hole feature on a steep slope after a minute or so, the motor would be like, okay, now I can't support this. It'll start…”
Tang: China's EV dominance resulted from heavy multi-decade state subsidies
“Today's situation in China is a national drive for last decades. So, you know, so the pure EV car, it can get easily charged in China, in most cities, but you cannot guarantee that happen in India, or even in Germany. I don't think there's too many charge stat…”
Klein: Developing nations defy theory by running surpluses to buy Western assets
“Places that in theory ought to be, you know, a sort of standard theory should be having trade deficits because of their investment needs, actually having surpluses, and sending you know, buying financial assets, rather than borrowing, their net lending to plac…”
Armstrong: Open source AI models are six months behind and 99% cheaper
“You know, the open source models are really like six months behind and they're like 99% cheaper or more sometimes for inference.”
Armstrong: Coinbase gives any trader equal AWS access to Citadel
“We, we've built this in the cloud where anybody can spin up an AWS instance in the same availability zone and have the same access as Citadel or Jane Street.”
Prasad: E-pharmacies are highly capital intensive and Tata 1mg remains unprofitable
“Online business can happen, but then you require a huge amount of capital. It's not a twenty-five-year-old's job. Tata MG, One MG is still not profitable.”
Juneja: Weak regulation leads to heavy metals like lead in Ayurvedic drugs
“The purity is an issue, actually. And a lot of time when regulatory is not very, very strong there are complaints of, I'll say, adding certain other things in that. For example, in this in some of the drugs, lead has been found.”
Prasad: China is significantly ahead of India in developing biologic drugs
“Indian abilities and scientific and manufacturing abilities and biologics are lagging. China is way ahead of us in biologic drugs. I wouldn't say that in chemistry, but I'll say that in biologics.”
Musk: The Defense Department cannot pass audits because required data is missing
“So if you have to say, like, why can the Defense Department, or now the Department of War, why can it not pass an audit? It's because the information is not there. It doesn't have, the information necessary to pass an order does not exist, is the issue.”
Sharma: Western social and economic mobility has declined over past 40 years
“Social and economic mobility in Western societies has declined in the last 30 to 40 years.”
Kamath: Zerodha earns less revenue per user than government taxes and fees
“We as a broker end up making lesser revenue as a typical user might pay in security transaction tax, plus the transaction charge that an exchange charges, plus SEBI says, education says, all of that put together.”
Khosla: AI intake tool used by 40% of UK NHS mental clinics
“In the UK, we have something that's used by 40% of all NHS mental health clinics to intake patients. What does intaking a patient mean? A therapist talk to them and classify their mental illness. The AI is much more accurate than the human therapist. 93% accur…”
Netflix's Second-Biggest Expense Is Tech, While Rivals Spend on Marketing
“I would bet every, all the other entertainment companies, their second biggest, biggest expense is marketing and ours is tech. Second and only to content.”
Pei: Chinese smartphone screen makers sell at a loss via subsidies
“The smartphone screens from China, those companies are losing money to sell the screens. They have policies that subsidize the creation of that industry.”
Sharma: China has invested for 20 years without matching TSMC
“Even see, China started their semiconductor program 20 years back. They're still not able to compete on that.”
Srinivas: Perplexity does not train on web data, unlike ChatGPT
“I mean, perplexity, that's why we sort, we attribute it to a source, like, we don't, like, say it's our content, and that way we give credit to the source, and we're not actually training on the data, but ChatGPT is different. They actually train on all the da…”
Polymarket Is Launching a Prediction Market on Bryan Johnson's Nighttime Erections
“So actually next week there's going to be, do you know Polymarket? Yeah. They're launching a market on my nighttime erections.”
Prakash: Indians need lower BMI cutoffs than Westerners
“BMI levels in India need to be lower because our fat thresholds are lower, right? Unless in Indian doctors and in have had this now, and where did this data get kind of research in Singapore, right? Because they are putting money into doing this research to se…”
Singh: Women are legally barred from bartending in certain Indian states
“Today, to certain states in India, women are not legally allowed to serve also, like even waitressing wise, or be actually making drinks.”
Mittersain: India gaming GST moved to 28% on deposits versus 18% on rake
“Now the latest tax on the GST is 28% on deposits, which was earlier 20. I mean, gaming companies were paying 18% on their rake, right?”
Developed Nations Deliver 75% of Global Climate Finance as Loans, Not Grants
“So that's 75% is loans. So it's more or less loans.”
Unmetered Farm Power Let Indian Industries Steal Electricity and Hide Losses
“What happened in India is that they said we'll give free power to farmers. The farmers stopped being metered, right? And when the farmers stopped being metered, you didn't know what was happening to the electricity. And so industry started conniving with the l…”
India Directs Only 3% of Its Energy R&D Budget Toward Renewables
“So energy R&D is forty-five billion. Right? A hundred and fifty million of that goes into clean energy R&D. A third of it goes into fossil fuels. The rest is nuclear. Over all these years, Three percent is going into clean energy and going into renewable energ…”
Tarun Mehta: Ather's charging connector is India's national standard
“Charging standard has become the national standard.”
Maini: Swappable battery EVs are denied subsidies given to fixed-battery versions
“In their showroom, there's a vehicle with a fixed battery and one with swappable. Both have identical vehicles. You can't tell the difference between them. You buy the one with fixed, the customer subsidy comes through. You buy the one with swappable, the subs…”
Kumar: Rameshwaram Cafe runs on 70% gross and 30% EBITDA margins
“I'm just saying it's a 70% gross margin. They must be doing EBITDA and monthly level generating around 30%. Minimum.”
Chhatwal: Foreign charter tourism to Goa has largely stopped due to conflicts
“The quality of the tourists coming was lower. Their spending power was lower, but we got a lot of charters. Which, because of the Russia, Ukraine, because of the Middle East, has stopped to a great extent.”
Chhatwal: The 50 tourism destinations announced by the Finance Minister remain unidentified
“We had this announcement by the Honorable Finance Minister on 50 new destinations. To be developed on a mission mode. But we still haven't identified which are those 50.”
Kamath: China's government has failed to break even on high-speed rail
“But those are not profitable ventures. Like even the Chinese government till date has not been able to break even on that. It requires a lot of capex.”
Tang: CATL sells at a 10% premium due to superior safety
“Tier two Chinese companies, the ratio of their safety issues always much higher than top, like BYD, like CTL.
So that's why CTL always sell about the 10% expensive than
The tier two.”
Tang: Sodium raw materials cost one-tenth of lithium equivalents
“So the price of cobalt sodium Combinates, it's one-tenth of the lithium components.”
Tang: Sodium-ion batteries utilize the same manufacturing facilities as lithium
“We are the same level with lithium. So we use actually the similar facility with lithium. So we just change the material. So so that's why most of the lithium battery company, they claim they have sodium product.”
Ning Zhu: RMB's Share of Global Settlements Has Barely Grown in a Decade
“I think in terms of the total settlement for the whole world, R&B has not gone up a lot in the past decade or so.”
Armstrong: AML enforcement seizes only about 1% of illicit global finance
“There's some estimates that only I think about one percent of all illicit activity is frozen or seized as a result of AML activities globally.”
Armstrong: Coinbase stores more crypto than any other company
“We're the company in the world that stores more crypto than anybody else.”
Armstrong: Coinbase gained US regulatory approval for crypto perps and options
“So we actually just today got approval for crypto perps and options tradable by U S people. I think we're the first regulated exchange in the U S to do that.”
Christodoulides: Turkey occupies 37% of Cyprus's territory
“The fact that Turkey still occupies 37% of the territory of the Republic of Cyprus.”
Prasad: Innovator drug production costs represent only 3% of the price
“See, the cost of production is not material during the patent time. Right. So they don't. Three percent, four percent.”
Prasad: China now produces 29% of all new cancer drugs globally
“29% of all new drugs are now, I think, in cancer are coming from China.”
Prasad: China saw approximately $50 billion in pharmaceutical deal making last year
“Fifty billion or so last year's deal making in from China. And all the global trials are coming from China now.”
Marks: Annual S&P 500 returns are almost never between 8% and 12%
“The return on the S&P, which averages 10, is almost never between eight and 12.”