The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 268 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 22 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Tulla: AI health companion bots will soon communicate and support patients
“Today I think one fix at least will be AI. And the fact that, you know, we will be able to build these companion bots companion AIs that are able to communicate with people, talk to people, and be there when you need support. And that will happen, I think, in,…”
Weisbrot Predicts Complete Scientific Understanding of Autism by 2043
“I think in the next 20 years, there will be a complete understanding of autism.”
Appel: Rite Aid Cannot Survive Against CVS and Walgreens
“I just don't see them, I don't see them survive, because they're like the third wheel, and you've got two strong, nationwide, well-run competitors.”
Chalana: Technologists will develop solutions to identify deepfakes and misinformation
“The scientists and the technologists are coming up with great solutions to identify deep fake, identify
You know, misinformation, things that are blatantly false.
So I think we'll have, I'm hopeful, but that's the one thing I'm scared about, but I think we'll…”
Weisbrot: Generative AI startups face massive consolidation by late 2025
“Chances are in a year or two, a lot of those companies are going to be dead. They're going to be acquired or they're going to die because they can't monetize or people don't want to use it anymore, or there's someone that's cheaper. So there's going to be this…”
Public resistance will prevent lockdowns in future pandemics, Hazlett predicts
“But I don't think we'll lock down people.
I don't think people will stand for that.”
Cox: If governments mandated another lockdown, people would comply without hesitation
“And I think if they did another lockdown people would herd to their houses and not, not think about it twice.”
Weisbrot: Governments will not implement wide-scale lockdowns again
“I don't believe we'll have that kind of a situation again.”
Sparrow: Quantum computing will enable seamless perceptual interfaces and realities
“You know, you open up the ability for interfaces that integrate Really seamlessly with our own experience, whether it's vision, hearing, touch you now bring in the computing power to be able to create, literally create new realities, new physical realities aro…”
Reyes: People in their thirties today will live to 110 years old
“In our lifetime, considering that lifespan expands five percent more or less per every decade, we're going to live about a 105, a 110 years. We're going to live this kind of future, for sure.”
Weisbrot: People who cannot work with AI will lose their jobs
“And then people who can't understand AI or work with AI, they're going to lose their jobs.”
Reyes: Society will find generational balance between internet convenience and privacy
“I think generationally we'll find balance between like having a comfortable life on the internet and a life where you'll share with your friends and your people.”
Weisbrot: Tech privacy exploitation will worsen due to consumer demand for convenience
“They're providing a service. If people want to use it, they'll keep making it. And people want convenience. So if it's convenient, they'll do it. And if they do it will continue to get worse. And they will continue to keep doing it.”
Foster: AI will automate data-driven product decisions to eliminate human error
“AI is going to have a really big impact on product management as well, right? You know, because a lot of the decision making, which used to have to be human powered, human centered, can now be kind of like delegated to a machine, which might be able to make be…”
Weisbrot: AI will shrink product teams, consolidating work to senior leaders
“So I think that there may be less people on a product team. I think maybe it'll be delegated to someone of a higher level position, maybe like a chief product officer, maybe a product director. Maybe you won't have several people because you can use software t…”
Weisbrot: AI capabilities will advance faster than product managers can upskill
“I think AI is going to outpace the human upskilling on something like this.”
Foster: Product managers should not worry about AI replacing them anytime soon
“I think that there's a situation in which the, you know, best product managers could ultimately be beaten once there's actually an underlying model behind these things down the road. But we're talking way in the future at this point, and I don't think that any…”
Schmidt: Replacing managers with AI in reviews will create more problems
“But I think, you know, offloading that from the person who's most familiar with it is you know, probably going to create more problems in its work.”
Lassman: Major Quantum Computing Breakthroughs Will Arrive Within Two Years
“I believe we're on that, but on the time scale of one to two years and five years at the max, but we're probably going to see something in the one to two year scale, especially in terms of what we're building.”
Weisbrot: Workers Ignoring AI Will Lose Their Jobs This Decade
“I believe that what happened back then in the nineties is is going to repeat in this decade where if you don't learn how to use the AIs that are coming out, you will lose your job to someone who's willing to learn.”
Lassman: AI Will Inevitably Need Quantum Computing to Unlock Its Value
“I believe that that's where technology is, is, is heading and in the language of abundance as well, where, what the technology is going to provide us because of that.”
Szamosszegi: Most blockchain projects and cryptocurrencies will go to zero
“I think that you're the majority of the blockchain projects out there in these cryptos are going to end up going to zero.”
Huselstein: AI's cheating advantage on essay questions will be short-lived
“There's probably going to be an unfair advantage for a very short amount of time when it comes to creating answers to essay questions or whatever because rightfully so people are developing programs that make it easy to track.”
Weisbrot: Global Reliance on ChatGPT Could Homogenize Human Belief Systems
“Another issue with ChatGPT is if the world in mass becomes confident in the information ChatGPT provides, ChatGPT may become the underlying foundation for all information humans receive in the future, which means all of us will end up having a singular belief …”
Spiller: There will be a recession by the end of 2023
“And that's kind of the expectation going into this year is by the time we're going out of this year, there will be a recession.”
McGarry: Metaverse will operate as siloed apps, not seamless worlds
“The buzzword interoperability is one that people throw around a lot in the web three space. And the intention there is what you're describing of people will be able to fluidly move between these worlds. But ultimately I think that this is going to be more of l…”
Weisbrot: Metaverse interoperability is highly unlikely due to code and capitalism
“If you actually understand how code is created and you understand how capitalism works, the chance of interoperability between these worlds is highly unlikely.”
Rosenstein: Early NFTs like CryptoPunks will endure due to established communities
“Definitely the early NFTs, the OG NFTs, and we're talking things like Crypto punks and rare pepes, you know, from 2016, 2017 for the punks. Those are just very rare OG NFTs that are here to stay because Gigantic communities formed around them, and there's been…”
Rosenstein: BCIs will succeed through wearable headbands, not invasive brain implants
“I think BCI's will take off, but, you know, the way I see it is that in, you know, you wear a headband or something. You know? To interact with your machine.”
Weisbrot: The Market Won't Buy Into Token Strategies Until 2024
“And when the market is willing to buy into such a plan, which it's not now, and it probably will be another two years.”
Rocha: 70-80% confident cybersecurity will adapt before quantum decrypts systems
“Somewhere between 70 and 80%.”
Weisbrot: Encrypted messages stored today could destroy your life within 10 years
“Within 10 years, anything you say today that is stored on, let's say, WhatsApp server, or Signal server, or Telegram server, that can come back to destroy your life.”
Weisbrot predicts AI adopters will replace non-adopters in the workplace.
“Now in the 20 twenties, but I think even more importantly towards the end of this decade, possibly more important in 20 thirties, if you don't know how to work with an AI to complete your job, you will lose your job to someone who will.”
Weisbrot predicts US infrastructure will lag 20 years behind China.
“But then knowing America, you go, ah, I understand why it's never going to happen in America. Maybe, but like, it'll be 20 years behind China.”
The US will not see widespread recreational use of psilocybin mushrooms
“Even though mushrooms are being decriminalized, I don't think there's going to be much recreational use in America.”
The FDA will not approve psychedelic medicines without accompanying talk therapy
“I don't see the FDA, by the way, Sean, a hundred percent. I don't see the FDA approving any of this that isn't in combination with some form of talk therapy.”
Weisbrot: Team collaboration will move to AR/VR within 3 to 7 years
“The future of team collaboration, all of that is inside of AR and VR. And if my company isn't prepared for that and building for that starting now, even though it's going to take three to five, maybe seven years for teams to be using these tools ubiquitously, …”
Tobias: AR will dominate enterprise productivity while VR drives social engagement
“I think AR is going to be all about productivity. VR is going to be more fun and social.”
Weisbrot: Companies without an AR/VR strategy will die in 5–10 years
“I think that there's a lot of companies that will die in the next five years or 10 years, if they're lucky, if they don't have an AR, VR strategy.”
Weisbrot predicts US psilocybin access will be restricted to therapy sessions only
“I believe the difference between the two is that while marijuana has been legalized for recreational use, I believe psilocybin might be restricted to therapy-assisted sessions only.”
Weisbrot: Psychedelic Biotech Will Engineer Non-Hallucinogenic Compounds for Mental Health
“I believe very firmly that the industry is heading in this direction where we will synthesize or alter the DNA structure of these substances so that you can get the mental health benefits, but have no fear whatsoever of there being a hallucinogenic aspect.”
Sokhenko: Faking Brand Values to Manipulate Consumers Will Inevitably Fail
“You should be really good in manipulation then, because people can feel that, and people are not stupid. They can feel when you're real and when you're not. I'm pretty sure, like, it's gonna fail, for sure.”
In July 2021, Clayton predicted COVID disruptions would end within six months
“If we're going to be coming out of this COVID thing, I think everything will be completely back to normal in the next six months, if not sooner.”
Stephen Keery expects the Biden administration to eliminate the step-up in basis.
“So actually passing on was actually a good way to get a new basis. That is very likely to change as well under this administration.”
Weisbrot: Blockchain will drive peer-to-peer commerce in VR worlds
“I think as you're talking, you know, with VR, we're going to be in that again, pretty soon. And I think blockchain is probably going to be the thing that drives it forward.”
Weisbrot: AI speech-to-no-code will likely be standard by 2031
“I think that speech to no code with AI will be probably the norm in 10 years.”
Parrish: No-code will soon become the mundane, default way to build software
“No code really is going to become something that again is, has the Bezos yawn factor. Do you just think it's the norm and you stop thinking about it as no code? It's just the way you build software.”
Blair Hurst: Consumerized Healthcare Will Shift Incentives and Improve Care
“Once the incentive is around how well we're taking care of patients and how well we're taking care of people and people have a voice in that and they can demand that and they can put their efforts and dollars behind things that are actually working. Then the i…”