why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Reyes: Meta's 7B parameter Llama 2 model achieves GPT-4 level behavior
“Facebook open-sourced their model this JAMA that is a competitor to chat GPT, and with seven billion parameters, it reaches very similar behavior than GPT-IV.”
Assertion Supported
Weisbrot: WhatsApp Co-Founder Forfeited $400M Payout To Get Away From Zuckerberg
“The guy ended up telling Zuckerberg to F himself and he walked away from a four hundred million dollar, like partial payout. Just so he could walk away from the company and get away from it.”
Assertion Contradicted
Rischitelli: Meta Collects Smart Glasses Data Regardless of User Consent Settings
“Whether you are sending it to Meta or not, Meta's getting that information.”
Assertion Supported
Wade: Ads account for only 10% to 15% of WeChat's revenue
“Like it's only about 10 to 15% of their sort of revenue pie is advertisements. Whereas in the West, you're looking at 98 to 99%, especially in the cases of Facebook and whatnot.”
Prediction Partly held up
Tobias: Meta will maintain a $300 Oculus alongside a $1,000–$1,200 device
“The Oculus will stay the 300 dollar consumer type thing and they'll have a thousand or 1200 dollar one.”
Assertion Supported
Weisbrot: Oculus sold 2M to 3M units during holiday season
“The Oculus sold two to three million units during black Friday and Christmas time.”
Assertion Contradicted
Grazer: Facebook had to buy patents before its IPO at bankers' insistence
“Facebook actually had to buy more patents before its IPO, because the investment bankers handling the IPO said, you don't have enough patents. This will make it hard for us to do the IPO because patent pending represents potential.”
Assertion Supported
WhatsApp's architecture leaks unreleased features to developers during internal tests
“When I was at Meta on the WhatsApp side, we had that problem. The WhatsApp app for whatever reason is built in a way where you can, I don't know, maybe this is common. I don't know enough about mobile apps, but it's built in a way where you can break it down a…”
Assertion Supported
Global degrees of separation have reduced from six to 3.5
“Last researchers from Meta or LinkedIn demonstrated that now what was called the six degrees of separation from any two human beings on planet Earth in reality as of today is being reduced to 3.5 degrees of separation.”