The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 55 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Insight
Urban: Projecting SaaS LTV via Churn Formulas Is Meaningless Nonsense
“When that number one divided by your churn projects like your L, it will project your LTV at like, oh, you're three and a half years or four years. Meanwhile, every year your business changes, your contract values change your contract lengths change, your pro…”
Ryan Urban Jun 3, 2016 ▶ 23:11 From $0 to $17,000,000 In 2015 With NYC Based SaaS Company, EP 253: Ryan Urban
Disclosure
Urban plans to raise venture capital without a pitch deck
“I'm going to raise money without a deck. I don't give a shit about a deck. It's like, here, you're, this is what we're doing right now. You're going to want to work with us. This is what we mean. this is what we want to do going forward. And people are …”
Ryan Urban Jun 3, 2016 ▶ 25:46 From $0 to $17,000,000 In 2015 With NYC Based SaaS Company, EP 253: Ryan Urban
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Urban: Wunderkind can increase client business by 20% within a year
“If someone uses our full series, we can increase the business by 20%. And that's like a real number. It's like within a year, like we can increase almost any business within 20%.”
Ryan Urban Nov 23, 2021 ▶ 4:34 Wunderkind Raising $100m+ at $1b+ Valuation As They Eye IPO Market in 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: Wunderkind's SaaS and advertising divisions will each reach $1B revenue
“These are ultimately these are going to be both billion dollar revenue businesses.”
Ryan Urban Nov 23, 2021 ▶ 17:24 Wunderkind Raising $100m+ at $1b+ Valuation As They Eye IPO Market in 2023
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Criteo's retargeting only lifts client revenue by 0.5%
“And for example, like say retargeting Criteo's whole business. Which they're a multi-billion dollar company. They only increased around about a half percent.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 11:26 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Opinion
Adam Neumann should not have stepped down from WeWork
“He shouldn't, he should not have stepped down.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 28:40 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Opinion
Elon Musk is the most special person in 200 years
“Elon Musk is the most special person to just apply over the last 200 years. So hands down and no one should ever talk shit about that guy.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 28:51 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Disclosure
BounceX would reject a $1 billion pre-IPO buyout offer
“Not a chance.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 29:18 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: Wunderkind will probably go public, potentially in 2022 or 2023
“Because at some point it could be next year, it could be early at 23, whenever, whenever, whenever we feel it's appropriate. Yeah. We're probably going to be a public company at some point and something we're looking forward to.”
Ryan Urban Nov 23, 2021 ▶ 2:01 Wunderkind Raising $100m+ at $1b+ Valuation As They Eye IPO Market in 2023
Opinion
Urban: Direct-to-consumer is a false category and just commerce
“There's no such thing as direct consumer. It's like, it's just commerce.”
Ryan Urban Nov 23, 2021 ▶ 9:31 Wunderkind Raising $100m+ at $1b+ Valuation As They Eye IPO Market in 2023
Opinion
Urban: Wunderkind advertising is even better than Facebook advertising
“And I think we have advertising that's even better than Facebook advertising.”
Ryan Urban Nov 23, 2021 ▶ 18:01 Wunderkind Raising $100m+ at $1b+ Valuation As They Eye IPO Market in 2023
Insight
Urban: The primary reason to take a company public is attracting talent
“But I mean, the reason to go public is, is really just attract talent. That's the main thing.”
Ryan Urban Nov 23, 2021 ▶ 20:47 Wunderkind Raising $100m+ at $1b+ Valuation As They Eye IPO Market in 2023
Assertion Not checkable as stated
BounceX approaches $20M in new quarterly ARR bookings
“Our new books in quarter is approaching 20 minutes.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 6:52 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Prediction Not checkable as stated
BounceX publisher unit is growing 3x to $25M in 2020
“Our publisher business unit is, is growing three extra year over a year. That'll probably do 25 mil itself this year, so.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 10:27 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Prediction Held up
BounceX will end 2020 well north of $100M in revenue
“We'll, we'll end the year well north of a hundred million.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 18:15 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Opinion
Launching new products into new markets makes you a 'complete idiot'
“Anyone who does new products to new markets is a complete idiot.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 20:47 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Insight
Moving down-market takes the most product work and is the worst strategy
“Actually, the most product work is moving down market, and it's the worst.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 20:54 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Insight
Urban: Founders Must Control Their Boards and Communicate Directly
“Make sure you have a good relationship with your board, but control your board. Tell them what's up, so.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 31:45 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Disclosure
Urban: Bounce Exchange deliberately avoided traditional outbound sales playbooks
“When you look at how all these B to B companies grew, it was because they had a fleet of salespeople, a fleet of these SDR sales development reps that are emailing, calling everybody blogs, white paper, social media, trade shows, spending a ton of money on AdW…”
Ryan Urban Jun 3, 2016 ▶ 8:52 From $0 to $17,000,000 In 2015 With NYC Based SaaS Company, EP 253: Ryan Urban
Disclosure
Bounce Exchange raised VC primarily to pay a $3.5M lease deposit
“We're in the New York Times building right now, and the security deposit was three and a half million dollars. So we were profitable as a business, but we just needed to pay the security deposit to move because we were growing. That's the reason why we took on…”
Ryan Urban Jun 3, 2016 ▶ 9:30 From $0 to $17,000,000 In 2015 With NYC Based SaaS Company, EP 253: Ryan Urban
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Urban: Half of Wunderkind's customers and staff arrive via referrals
“A half our customers come by word of mouth for bid for enterprise software company. That's very rare. It's almost half of wonder can people work here come also by referrals.”
Ryan Urban Nov 23, 2021 ▶ 5:23 Wunderkind Raising $100m+ at $1b+ Valuation As They Eye IPO Market in 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: Wunderkind's advertising division will approach $100M revenue next year
“I would say next year. Oh, definitely. I'd say next year we'd be getting closer to Getting close to nine figures in revenue on that.”
Ryan Urban Nov 23, 2021 ▶ 15:06 Wunderkind Raising $100m+ at $1b+ Valuation As They Eye IPO Market in 2023
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Urban: BounceX boosts client revenue 10% to 15% within 90 days
“Typically we're any business we work with, we're able to increase their revenue by say five to 20% within, within, within 90 days. And it's usually more in the 10 to 15% range.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 3:28 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Insight
SaaS companies can borrow 0.8x to 1.2x ARR in venture debt
“You can leverage about depending on the strength of your business, somewhere between .8 and 1.2 times your AR, and we can flex up a little more.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 15:08 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: BounceX will probably finish the year above 40% growth
“We're probably, we'll probably finish a year more than that.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 24:26 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Assertion Not checkable as stated
BounceX spent $200K helicoptering CEOs to a US Open suite
“We just spent about 200 K, we rented a private suite of the US Open Finals, we choppered these CEOs into our, basically our suite was, and we also had other CEOs out and like, so they got to kind of meet some other like CEOs or CMOs of big companies. They got …”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 24:58 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Prediction Not publicly verifiable
Urban: Bounce Exchange aims to hit a $40M run rate by year-end 2016
“Our run rate will try to end this year at 30, forty million. Oh, well, definitely way more than, and in terms of and your MRR, your ARR is your annual recurring revenue or your committed annual recurring revenue. That's the important number for an immature Saa…”
Ryan Urban Jun 3, 2016 ▶ 11:34 From $0 to $17,000,000 In 2015 With NYC Based SaaS Company, EP 253: Ryan Urban
Disclosure
Urban: Bounce Exchange maintained negative net revenue churn in 2015
“Our net revenue churn is It was negative. So we actually, it was growing. Last year was a bad break, even a slightly negative.”
Ryan Urban Jun 3, 2016 ▶ 17:07 From $0 to $17,000,000 In 2015 With NYC Based SaaS Company, EP 253: Ryan Urban
Disclosure
Urban: Bounce Exchange has never spent meaningful money on paid AdWords
“We think we shut down almost all of our social media. we just did our first trade show last month. We haven't spent a dollar in our life on on like paid actually for our brand term. I think we put like 500 dollars into it because someone else was bidding o…”
Ryan Urban Jun 3, 2016 ▶ 18:29 From $0 to $17,000,000 In 2015 With NYC Based SaaS Company, EP 253: Ryan Urban
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Urban: Bounce Exchange operates basically profitably
“And now, now we operate yeah, basically, basically profitable.”
Ryan Urban Jun 3, 2016 ▶ 26:32 From $0 to $17,000,000 In 2015 With NYC Based SaaS Company, EP 253: Ryan Urban
Disclosure
Urban: Wunderkind conducted a pre-IPO crossover fund process
“So I actually was on a we did do a kind of a pre IPO like a crossover fund process. And I really wanted to kind process. And I really wanted to kind of, Introduce what Wunderkin does to a lot of the public company investors.”
Ryan Urban Nov 23, 2021 ▶ 1:48 Wunderkind Raising $100m+ at $1b+ Valuation As They Eye IPO Market in 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: Wunderkind will deliver about 50% revenue growth this year
“It's gonna be about a 50% revenue growth 50% growth year for us. And that's on a big base and that's without like, without deploying like a ton of strategic financing.”
Ryan Urban Nov 23, 2021 ▶ 5:07 Wunderkind Raising $100m+ at $1b+ Valuation As They Eye IPO Market in 2023
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Urban: Wunderkind's annual revenue is in the $150M ballpark
“So it's you're in the ballpark, so.”
Ryan Urban Nov 23, 2021 ▶ 8:12 Wunderkind Raising $100m+ at $1b+ Valuation As They Eye IPO Market in 2023
Assertion Supported
Urban: Wunderkind works with half of the Comscore 250 digital publishers
“So we work with like half the comp score of two-fifty. You work like the biggest ones, like the CNBC, the Weathers, the CNN, those kinds of big publishers.”
Ryan Urban Nov 23, 2021 ▶ 13:47 Wunderkind Raising $100m+ at $1b+ Valuation As They Eye IPO Market in 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: Advertising will probably make up 40% of Wunderkind's revenue
“I say the future 12 months will probably be 40% advertising, but they're both going to grow.”
Ryan Urban Nov 23, 2021 ▶ 17:15 Wunderkind Raising $100m+ at $1b+ Valuation As They Eye IPO Market in 2023
Disclosure
Urban: Roughly half of Wunderkind's $75M funding was venture debt
“Say it's about half and half the debt. We, we've acquired five companies.”
Ryan Urban Nov 23, 2021 ▶ 18:51 Wunderkind Raising $100m+ at $1b+ Valuation As They Eye IPO Market in 2023
Assertion Partly supported
Urban: Less than 5% of e-commerce website visitors are logged in
“To scale triggers, you need identification because less on e-commerce websites, less than five percent of people logged in.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 3:01 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Disclosure
Urban: BounceX sets minimum annual contract price at $72,000
“And then you have the bottom cohort, which is our minimum is a 72 K a year. So it goes six K a month is the companies that we do in five mil, five to 10 mil online.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 5:43 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Urban: BounceX has around 1,000 paid customer websites
“We're probably on about a thousand websites. So is that paid customers though? Yes, it is.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 9:38 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Urban: BounceX bootstrapped to $1M ARR before raising $1.5M in 2013
“Then we took, then after we got to about 70 K in MRR, so, we got to about the a million dollar AR point. Then we and we had good pipeline, then we raised a bit. We only raised, this is 2013 mid 2013. We only raised a million and a half bucks when we could have…”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 12:30 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Urban: BounceX ran for nearly four years on $1.5M in venture capital
“And then we basically went the first almost four years on that million and a half venture money raised.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 12:49 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Assertion Partly supported
Urban: BounceX has acquired four companies
“We've acquired four companies, so some that's used to fund some acquisitions.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 13:07 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Disclosure
Urban: BounceX is cash-flow positive and near profitability
“Our cash balance is going up now. So we're close to profitability, but we're cashflow positive.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 17:12 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Disclosure
BounceX has deployed only ~$30M of its $60M raised
“Altogether, we probably have about 60 into the biz, and we, then you minus your, the cash and balance sheet, and we've probably deployed somewhere in the thirties.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 17:56 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Disclosure
Urban: BounceX completed an unannounced acquisition last year
“We did one and wasn't announced.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 24:14 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Insight
Urban: People consume too many books and podcasts without taking action
“If you listen to something, if you read something, you got to take action immediately. That's it. But people read way too much.”
Ryan Urban Jul 13, 2020 ▶ 30:00 BounceX Breaks $100m in Revenue, 1000 Customers, Breakeven, 2020 IPO?
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Urban turned down a $300,000 Bonobos offer to start Bounce Exchange
“They offered me 300,000 dollars plus to stay, so I turned that down to make zero, and I think 2013, I made It was our first, like, real full year. I made a little more 30,000 dollars that year”
Ryan Urban Jun 3, 2016 ▶ 5:53 From $0 to $17,000,000 In 2015 With NYC Based SaaS Company, EP 253: Ryan Urban
Disclosure
Urban: Bounce Exchange operated for over two years without raising venture capital
“Yeah, so we went over two years without raising any VC money at all. And that money, not, not all that money went into the business. Somebody wanted to clean, clean up the cap table a bit.”
Ryan Urban Jun 3, 2016 ▶ 10:26 From $0 to $17,000,000 In 2015 With NYC Based SaaS Company, EP 253: Ryan Urban
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