The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Appel advises startups to base operating plans on a 60% probability
“There's different types of forecasts. The plan, your stretch, and your BHAG. Your plan is 60% likely to hit. And this is what you want to do in building what your valuation's coming from against these metrics that we've talked about. But this is what you want …”
Appel advises setting startup stretch targets at a 30% probability
“The stretch is 30% chance of beating. This is the rally target for the company around a big milestone.”
Appel: SaaS growth targets evolve from PMF at Seed to profitability at Series C
“Seed, product market fit, series A, prove you can sell it, series B, prove you can expand and keep those customers, series C and beyond, make it repeatable, profitable, and predictable, and then a big milestone, take a capital efficient model, move it to adjac…”