The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Insight
Caldbeck: Consumer investors frequently ignore data in favor of personal taste
“Consumer investors would always like extrapolate their preferences on on, on the company or sorry, on the investment decision. And I don't like the taste of us. No one will like the taste regardless of the data. And what they miss is that the data was identify…”
Ryan Caldbeck Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 42:15 The Secret Dataset CPG Gods Use
Disclosure
Caldbeck hid his cancer diagnosis from the CircleUp team until 2021
“I didn't feel like I could do that with the team. I felt like that team didn't know that I had cancer. They found out earlier this year when I told them before the blog post. But they, the board knew that I had cancer and they let me just be myself.”
Ryan Caldbeck Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 57:52 The Secret Dataset CPG Gods Use
Disclosure
CircleUp's top-decile equity team had zero prior deal-lead experience
“I think the most exciting thing about that technology or sorry, the fund is that no one on that team ever led a deal before joining circle up.”
Ryan Caldbeck Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 44:58 The Secret Dataset CPG Gods Use
Insight
Caldbeck: The multi-year private market feedback loop limits repeat marketplace investing
“In the private markets, that feedback loop is much, much longer. You won't get your money back for years. And you can't really see the performance nearly as granularly, right? And it's just choppier. So that feedback loop leads investors to invest once or mayb…”
Ryan Caldbeck Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 25:44 The Secret Dataset CPG Gods Use
Assertion Not checkable as stated
A CircleUp investor made a 109x return on Beyond Meat
“When Beyond Meat went public one of their investors had met Beyond Meat through us, and he responded to the original introduction that we facilitated. And he responded to that email when they went public and said, thanks for this intro... And he told us that h…”
Ryan Caldbeck Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 26:03 The Secret Dataset CPG Gods Use
Opinion
Caldbeck believes CircleUp's equity fund achieved top decile venture returns
“I think it was a top decile fund amongst all venture, by the way, not just consumer.”
Ryan Caldbeck Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 44:26 The Secret Dataset CPG Gods Use
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Caldbeck: CircleUp had 14 straight record growth months before pivoting
“What I should mention is for 14 months or so in a row before we pivoted, ending two or three months before we pivoted, each month was a record month.”
Ryan Caldbeck Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 30:59 The Secret Dataset CPG Gods Use
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Caldbeck: Earned more in private equity than as CircleUp CEO
“More than I more, more, more than I make per year now, frankly.”
Ryan Caldbeck Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 14:09 The Secret Dataset CPG Gods Use
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