The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 35 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hudson: Building an Independent Business Matters More Than Forecasting Acquirers
“If it's a good business, you'll have lots of opportunity, like, it's more important to build a really good business that has the ability to remain independent until something else happens than it is to, every time I've tried to forecast, oh, so-and-so company …”
Hudson: Anchoring high on valuation backfires when pitching VCs
“I think part of the challenge for founders is there is this whole, I'm going to anchor high and get negotiated down to something I can live with.
It doesn't really work that well in venture because as a founder who's raising money, your real competition is no…”
Hudson: Precursor avoids AI infrastructure due to technical complexity and intense competition
“So like, just as a front level, we're just not doing much in AI infra, just, I don't have the technical ability to analyze them, and I haven't found many interesting categories where I don't instantly meet two dozen very credible teams.”
Hudson: Four or five top Precursor outcomes will be product companies
“We have four or five of our biggest outcomes at the firm level will be product companies, actually not software companies.”
Hudson: Startups raising $2M to $3M inevitably burn it within 24 months
“Look, I think one of the big mistakes I've seen companies in our portfolio make is they take two to three million dollars, and it's very hard to have two to three million dollars and not magically have it all disappear in 24.
Everyone's like, oh, don't worry.
…”
Hudson warns that heavy local capital in emerging markets is problematic
“We've had totally polar experiences. We've had some companies where we've had tons of local capital, and it's been highly problematic.”
Hudson: Charge operators' demand for single software aggregators creates massive lock-in
“I don't believe these charge operators want five different software systems. They're gonna pick one. And if he can make it work, he has a chance to be an early winner and lock up a bunch of distribution that will be very difficult, if not impossible, for someo…”
Hudson passes on ECGO due to doubts about university contract sizes
“I don't think I can get there on the current round, just cause I'm not, I think I have in my mind a sense of how big the university tickets would have to be, and I'm not sure they're there yet.”
Hudson: Most portfolio company buyers are unknown at investment time
“Most of the companies we've sold, with a few exceptions, the buyer was not anticipated or known at the time of the investment.”
Hudson: Helping founders for a year without investing is a mistake
“My biggest dumb-dumb investments at Precursor have been where I've worked with someone for a year and not invested, and then when they raise, it's at some crazy place, and I'm like, I just worked for free and helped this person for a year. I should have put mo…”
Hudson: Physical Sample Fulfillment Beat Digital Ads for Customer Acquisition Costs
“I just brought that up because we have a few companies in our portfolio where what they realized is the cost of fulfilling a sample was cheaper than buying a customer through digital.”
Why Tools Like LinkedIn Do Not Work for Hourly Workers
“These are people where the existing tools for reputation and
Career management, like, don't apply.
Like, the LinkedIn's of the world.
There isn't a reputation, resume, experience tech stack that's readily available for these people because it's a different, it…”
Hudson says Precursor Ventures strictly avoids tobacco and cannabis investments
“We've had a strict sort of no tobacco, no cannabis policy, a precursor, since I started the fund.”
Hudson: Ghosting Sun and Swell is my first broken commitment ever
“Historically, you know, this is, I think, in 200 some odd investments, probably the first time I can think of where we Made a commitment to somebody, had every intention of fulfilling it, and haven't been able to, and it's one of the things we pride ourselves …”
Hudson: 300 portfolio founders actively backchannel about bad VC behavior
“We have 300 founders in our portfolio, and I know sometimes they'll come to me and say, hey, I've heard this person, like, isn't good. I've heard that this firm isn't responsive. I've heard this firm, like, wastes founders time. That's coming from somewhere. T…”
Hudson: Every pet startup Precursor backed outperformed initial size expectations
“Everything we've done in pet has ended up being bigger than I thought going in.”
Hudson: Precursor Ventures offers to invest $100,000 into DogSpot
“So I'd like to invest a 100,000.”
Hudson: Startup valuation is purely a negotiated market-clearing price
“Valuation is purely driven by negotiation and standards in the industry.
So I think I've had founders come into my office and pitch me and say, hey, we have a hundred K in revenue.
And we think that means that we're worth ten million dollars.
And I would ju…”
Hudson: Precursor Ventures allocates 5% to 10% to hardware startups
“We still do five to 10% hardware.”
Charles Hudson commits $50,000 to Thoras AI seed round
“I know what the status quo is for products in this category, and there are multiple, multi-billion dollar public companies in this space, and I think it'd be really interesting to go on this journey with you at the same level that Elizabeth mentioned.”
Hudson: Three of Precursor's best portfolio companies are direct-to-consumer
“Three of our best companies, Bobby, Pepper, and Pierre Ivo are all DTC, and they're all like real companies.”
Hudson: Most Precursor exits were to unanticipated buyers
“Most of the companies we've sold, with a few exceptions, the buyer was not anticipated or known at the time of the investment.”
Hudson: Precursor backs female founders who don't fit the typical alpha mold
“Our portfolio is half female. We have a bunch of really smart female founders who just don't do the alpha thing.”
Hudson offers a $10,000 Precursor Ventures check to Sun & Swell
“So I'd like to look at a small investment for our fund of like, 10,000 dollars.”
Hudson: Precursor is exploring using Vetted for portfolio procurement
“We've been talking to them about using Vetted for our platform because I'd say a third of our Slack channel messages are We're looking at lever or greenhouse. What should we use? What did you pay? How did you get a discount?”
Charles Hudson passes on Vetd due to potential portfolio conflicts
“We're in team pay and stack share, but I think what you're doing is different. And so I'll just cut to the chase. Like I'm going to be out for right now, but we're going to roll this out. And I'm gonna learn a lot, and I'm gonna talk to Jonas and Andrew at Sta…”
Hudson: Precursor Ventures typically writes $250,000 initial checks
“I just didn't feel like our normal full-size, two 50 K check was the right one in this case.”
Muccio: Charles Hudson still intends to invest $250K in Shipsi
“I found out shortly after this that Charles is actually very much still interested in investing. Like he wants to put in the 250 K that he wanted to invest originally, which is huge.”
Charles Hudson Commits $50,000 From Precursor Ventures to Bluffworks
“So we've only recently started investing in apparel, or what we call tangible goods at Precursor, but I have a good feeling about you. And so I'm gonna invest 50,000 dollars.”
Charles Hudson of Precursor Ventures invested $250,000 in ShearShare
“And then Charles Hudson with Precursor Ventures, another investor who's been on the show, decided to join the round, coming in for another 250 K. Altogether, Shearshare received over a half a million dollars in funding.”
Charles Hudson: The three core questions Precursor asks before leading a round
“When we lead, the three things I usually try to think about are like, what's a price that I think would pull in the other people who we need as investors? What amount should we commit to sort of like help catalyze the round? And then like, what else can we do …”
Hudson: Precursor Ventures Backed Adjacent Practice-Launch Startup Ease
“We invested in a business that not only is competitive, it's somewhat similar, called Ease, which helps doctors essentially launch their own”
Hudson: Precursor rarely backs infrastructure unless the non-technical value is clear
“We don't do that many things on the infrastructure side. And when we do, it's usually like something that I can, where I can understand the value prop as someone who's not deeply technical.”
Hudson: Precursor is conflicted out of FutureMoney due to UNest investment
“We are small investors in UNES through an acquisition, and we have a multiplayer family money product that aims to end up in the same place as you, but from a very different starting point. And the more I hear, the more I think we're probably conflicted out.”