The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 813 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 110 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kim: AI Recursive Self-Improvement Could Arrive Within Nine Months, Massively Draining Compute
“RSI, I think, is a lot closer than people think. And if RSI actually happens in the next three, six, nine months, That's gonna soak up insane amount of compute.”
Prince: Bot traffic will be 1,000x human internet traffic in five years
“And I wouldn't be surprised if, you know, going, going, you know, forward, say five years, that, that bot traffic will be a thousand times human traffic online.”
Karp: A strong US movement to nationalize AI will emerge quickly
“That nobody believes me in tech, but there's gonna be a movement in this country that gets very strong very quickly to nationalize these things.”
Thompson: China's Optimal Response to US Super-AI Dominance Is Bombing TSMC
“What happens if we get super powerful AI and China doesn't? What are they going to do? The optimal thing would be to just bomb TSMC out of existence, because suddenly that becomes optimal, even with all the costs that that does, and then what?”
Amodei: AI models will surpass human cognitive capabilities within years
“My fundamental view is that AI has been on an exponential for the last 10 years and as part of a sort of Moore's law for intelligence, and that we are now well advanced on that curve, and there are only a small number of years for AI models surpassing the cogn…”
Elon Musk: Space will be cheapest location for AI compute in 2-3 years
“The lowest cost place to put AI will be space. And that'll be true within two years. Maybe three. Three at the latest.”
Musk: AI and humanoid robots will eliminate global poverty
“But AI and humanoid robots will actually eliminate poverty.”
Coogan: AI labs will likely solve the Millennium Prize problems this year
“I think that the millennium prize will get solved or proved or delivered probably this year, if not like this week, it feels like all of the different labs are like, Put a million dollars of inference on this. Put a million dollars of inference on this. There …”
Huang: AI labs will prove extremely profitable within months
“I believe within months you're going to realize that these companies are extremely profitable.”
Kim: $200B in Current Hyperscaler AI CapEx Will Generate Massive Free Cash Flow
“So that's why you're investing two hundred billion dollars now, and in a year or two, we're gonna see insane amounts of free cash flow.”
Cowen: Attempts to Outlaw or Sanction Chinese Open-Source AI Will Fail
“Open source and is coming and is here, whether we like it or not. Of course, a lot of it will be from China. We should allow American competitors to proceed on an even footing, but basically the attempt to outlaw it or ban it or use sanctions against it is goi…”
Proposed Billionaire Tax Has Harmed California and Will Wreck It
“I hope the billionaire tax fails. It will wreck California. If it passes, it's already harmed California.”
Coogan: Self-driving technology is commoditizing as fast as LLMs
“My latest hot take is that self-driving technology is commoditizing as fast as LLM technology and that companies that take it seriously and actually prioritize it. It is not some insane insane tech breakthrough that cannot be implemented in other vehicles. It …”
Paul: Humans will live forever by transferring our minds into robots
“Yeah, we're all going to live forever. Like we're just going to like transfer our mind into some robotic body. And so I think this whole, like, health wave.”
Gerstner: An AI Data Center Moratorium Would Cause a US Recession
“A data center moratorium would thrust us straight into a recession and high unemployment.”
Gerstner: OpenAI and Anthropic compute capacity will scale from 3GW to 20GW
“OpenAI and Anthropic combined to start the year had three gigawatts of compute. Three combined. They're gonna end the year closer to 10, and end next year closer to 20.”
Hays: Ferrari Will Never Be Competitive in EVs
“It's basically proving that Ferrari, I don't think can ever, I don't think they'll ever be competitive in EVs.”
AI will undoubtedly lead to fewer software engineering jobs, says Lynch
“So what does that mean if you're a software engineer? It means there's gonna be fewer jobs, aren't you? Without a doubt. Fewer jobs. For now.”
Gurman: All Succession Indicators Point to John Ternus as Apple CEO
“So anyways, it'll be Ternus or Sabi or someone completely out of left field. I don't think this is imminent. So we'll see what ultimately happens, but all signs are turning towards Ternus.”
Shkreli: No clinical trial of BPC-157 will ever work
“I would bet anything. I would bet anything. No trial of BPC would work.”
Cuban: Humanoid Robot Startups Will Fail Miserably Within Ten Years
“I think everybody's making this push for humanoid robots. I think they might have a five-year lifespan and then they'll fail miserably, maybe 10.”
Cuban: Requiring Foreign Amazon Seller Bonds Would Skyrocket US Manufacturing
“And yeah, and legislatively you could fix it in a heartbeat. You got to post a bond. 25,000 dollar bond, depending on the size of the market, maybe more, and then give everybody 90 days to check it, and all of a sudden the whole industry changes, and American …”
Alex Karp says AI job loss sparks 'hang the rich' backlash
“I think the American version, if we're not careful, is not going to be the German version. I think it's going to be hang the rich. I, It's like, I think it's gonna be, not protect everybody else. It's gonna be like, look, this is too dangerous, and we're gonna…”
CEOs will slash headcount regardless of actual AI efficiency gains
“So again, it doesn't really matter whether or not a company is actually getting tremendous efficiency from AI. Every CEO is going to do this.”
Trump: Tech Companies Must Build Own Power Plants Under New Pledge
“We're telling the major tech companies that they have the obligation to provide for their own power needs. They can build their own power plants as part of their. Factory so that no one's prices will go up and in many cases prices of electricity will go down f…”
Bryan Johnson predicts 'Don't Die' will become the world's dominant ideology
“Our primary hypothesis is as this evolves, the major shift is humans are going to want life. Like, you know, if AI takes our jobs and they take what we do and we want to find new identity, there's going to be a major shift towards don't die. And it's going to …”
Bryan Johnson predicts Blueprint's platform will exceed the FDA in value
“I think that we will exceed them in value in many core areas. Because they, you, they can take, you know, well-structured, well-funded clinical trials. But then other things like peptides that are very promising. They're not going to have the clinical work.”
Thornton: Future combat assets will be too small for hypersonic missiles
“My personal belief, and this is, again, sort of a contrarian take, I think future warfighting has to be so decentralized that most of the assets used to fight wars are actually not large enough to consider taking out with a hypersonic missile.”
Coogan: AI agents will entirely replace human GitHub commits by year-end
“I would expect like 70%, and I would expect Codex to be at 30%, and no more human commits because it's working.”
Hays: Claude has lost the race to reach billions of users
“Anthropic has already lost the race to serve billions of people, right? I don't think that they're, when you look at Gemini's sort of traction, OpenAI's, ChatGPT traction, like it seems like the race to get to Three billion monthly actives is kind of over. I d…”
Patel: Anthropic's $300B revenue target for 2030 is too low
“And when Anthropic says in their funding, like, hey, we're gonna have three hundred billion dollars of revenue by the end of the decade, and it's like, actually I think that number's too low. Because the economic value of what they're gonna create is gonna be …”
Steinberger: Users will stop subscribing to SaaS startups in favor of bespoke agent software
“You don't subscribe to random startups anymore that, that build like this common subset of what you need. You just have your own hyper-personalized software that solves exactly your problem. And it's also free.”
Ben Affleck doubts AI will ever generate whole movies or meaningful writing
“I actually don't think it's very likely that it can, it's going to be able to write anything meaningful, or, and in particular, That it's going to be making movies like from whole cloth, like Tilly Norwood, like that's bullshit. I don't think that's going to h…”
Baker: Space data centers will be the world's most important development
“I think the most important thing that's going to happen in the world in the next Three to four years is data centers in space.”
Sam Altman predicts US government becomes insurer of last resort for AI
“At some level, when something gets sufficiently huge, whether or not they are on paper, the federal government is kind of the insurer of last resort. As we've seen in various financial crises and insurance companies screwing things up. So, I guess, given the m…”
Gurman: Apple to release Gemini-powered Siri revamp in spring 2026
“The big AI thing for Apple is the revamped Siri coming out in the spring. They're using a Google Gemini model to power it, which I think is going to make it pretty top tier.”
Cohen predicts computers and AI will go after humans soon
“At some point, the computers are going after the humans, and I don't think it's that far away.”
Dr. Drew: Legacy late-night TV hosts will all face cancellation
“So when Colbert gets Gets fired for losing forty million dollars a year. I just looked at that and I go, well, of course. That's gonna happen to all of them. This is just not a model.”
Cuban: AI is merely statistical and will not become smart for a long time
“Particularly because AI is not smart. Right. AI is just statistical right now. And I'm of the mindset that that's not going to change for a long time.”
Hotz: AI application wrappers like Cursor and Windsurf will fail
“And then on top you have, like, completely worthless things like cursor and windsurf you know, these character AI, all these people who think, oh, we're the app, we're gonna get the ARR. No, that worked in the web, it won't work for AI”
Trump: Musk will criticize me personally next
“He hasn't said bad about me personally, but I'm sure that'll be next.”
Balaji: DeFi Asset Swaps Will Destroy National Fiat Monopolies
“Cash is universal barter. Cash can be traded for anything, but now anything can be traded for anything, which means there's less need for cash, right? And so all these countries will wake up one day and they'll find, wait a second, just like the newspapers, we…”
Tan: There will be very few successful defense tech companies
“I don't think, I agree more with Dellian comments about that there's not going to be many successful defense companies.”
Sam Lessin predicts most sub-$50M seed funds will disappear without DPI
“I think what we're going to find is that, you know, a, The market, most of those funds are going away because they don't have that and they're not going to be.”
Hausman: Most future frontier AI models will train on real-world robot data
“So I think over time, it's quite likely that, that the places are gonna switch a little bit, where most of the models, including, you know, LLMs and BLMs, are gonna be using real-world data collected through robots, because that's the data that has no ceiling,…”
Hammond: AI will deflate US knowledge work while China automates manufacturing
“The last 40 years we've specialized in, you know, higher education, knowledge work, legal management services, Hollywood, you know, the creative class, all this stuff that is going to like be deflated and China will have the factories that will become fully au…”
Arnott: A water-based conflict with China in the Asia-Pacific is coming
“So the Asia Pacific fight with China, clearly that's a water-based conflict that's coming.”
Knoop: Scaling Test-Time Compute Will Not Get Us to AGI
“And then there's a new story that's emerged over the last like five months, which is, oh, we're going to scale up this test time compute and that's going to get us to AGI. And I think what V two shows is that that's not quite either. We still need some structu…”