why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hudson: Viral video allegations against Honey were essentially falsified
“Almost every version of that was essentially falsified. Like he'd say one thing and then the screen would show something completely different and non-incriminating.”
Opinion
Hudson: Google's Single-Purpose Policy Stifled Chrome Extension Business Models
“And it's a single purpose arbitrary policy that Google has for the Chrome store that extensions are only allowed to do one thing. And so extensions have effectively been pushed to only do a feature and it becomes increasingly challenging to attach a business m…”
Assertion Supported
Hudson: Affiliate networks enforce stand-down policies preventing extensions from stealing creator attribution
“There is stand down policies at all of the, at almost all of the networks where downloadable software tools, toolbars browser extensions are required by the affiliate network. Who's mediating all these like multi-party exchanges are required to stand down to t…”
Disclosure
Hudson: Honey spent over $100M on creator partnerships
“It also pulled in a bunch of creators who we'd spent over a hundred million dollars working with to promote honey.”
Assertion Supported
Hudson: RetailMeNot gets affiliate commissions whether coupons work or not
“When you click on that retail may not link, it's actually affiliate tagging you at that moment in time. And so you go to do that coupon search and whether the coupon works or not, it's they're getting an affiliate commission on that.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hudson: Honey Drove Incremental Lift by Keeping Shoppers in Checkout Cart
“We found that by keeping the consumer in the shopping cart, we actually drove incremental lift for the retail partners, and over time, a bunch of them were able to use their own data to demonstrate that to themselves, and that's the core of what became Honey's…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hudson: Honey's Entire Revenue Sourced Exclusively From Affiliate Marketing
“So the first penny that we made
And the last penny, as far as I know, is effectively affiliate marketing with a cashback program that we worked with, you know, that we rebated that commission to the consumer.”
Insight
Hudson: Honey charges low commissions compared to double-digit Google ad costs
“So it's not like the marketing spend on Google where you're spending well into double digits percentage of revenue on acquisition or what you're spending on Facebook. We're talking like really small numbers and Part of that reason the rates are low is actually…”
Insight
Hudson: Browser Extensions Have Superior Natural Retention Over Mobile Apps
“Chrome extensions or browser extensions generally have an insane retention characteristic that they completely solve for. All of the problems that people are having on mobile, of how do you not just get somebody to download your app, but to remember to use it …”
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2028
Hudson: Newegg uses multi-touch attribution to pay both creators and Honey
“Newegg is using a multi-touch attribution system in any click system from company Howell, and it is effectively, like, it's Newegg uses it so that it can pay both the creator upstream and Honey.”
Opinion
Hudson: MrBeast ad inventory matches Super Bowl scale, pricing out most sponsors
“The scale of the ad buy now is like, it's a Super Bowl every time he does anything. So there's like 10 companies that can even possibly afford to do that.”
Disclosure
Hudson: Ad blocker Pi acquired most of its users via YouTube ads
“Most of our acquisition has been through regular YouTube ads of all places.”
Opinion
Hudson: Browser extensions have never been an attractive investment space
“It's a browser extension. Never has really been an attractive investment space.”
Assertion Supported
Hudson: Honey made no revenue until 2015 despite 2012 launch
“The first dollar of revenue didn't come until 2015. So, let's launch the product 20 12, 2015.”
Insight
Hudson: Honey's Early Referral Loop Took Months per User
“One of the reasons honey in the early days grew at a steady, but slow rate is the cycle time on that growth loop was measured literally in months. So the time from Somebody installs Honey to they get a coupon that works, which is like the aha, this thing actua…”
Insight
Hudson breaks down unit economics driving VPN sponsorships on YouTube
“The reason for it is one, it's pretty high recurring revenue, high LTV product. So like you can afford to do marketing spend for a product like that. The second piece is the YouTube audience is like two third international. And so it's an efficient way to reac…”