The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 813 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 110 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Andreessen: Supreme Court will decide if AI chats get Fourth Amendment protection
“On the on the privacy thing. I think that, that one feels like it's a Supreme court thing. To me, it feels like that's the kind of issues that the Supreme court and the, in other words, like whether, for example, your Transcripts are considered your property a…”
Andreessen Predicts Some Version of an AI Pin Will Succeed
“I think some form of AI pin is going to work.”
Coogan: No new chip architecture will displace Nvidia GPUs or Google TPUs
“It doesn't seem like there's some new disruptive chip architecture that's gonna come out and obviate the need for both NVIDIA GPUs and Google TPUs, and so Google's very well positioned”
Neistat: AI Media Will Cause Real Creator Erosion Within 5-6 Years
“I think five or six years from now, we're going to start to see real sort of erosion in the space because what they're delivering is going to be so good.”
Neistat: First #1 AI Song Will Be a Novelty Track, Not Soulful
“We haven't had a number one song yet that's completely AI generated, but it's going to come out of nowhere. It's going to be, like, Gangnam style, which, like, the novelty of it allows us to dismiss the lack of humanity that this song has. The first AI song th…”
Neistat: AI will cause real erosion for creators within 5-6 years
“I think five or six years from now, we're going to start to see real sort of erosion in the space because what they're delivering is going to be so good.”
Neistat: AI rise will create extreme premium on distinct human voices
“I think that there is going to be an extreme premium, but on the humans that are able to sustain because of what they represent uniquely.”
Hays: Grok companions will be xAI's largest revenue source
“I believe this will be by far the largest revenue line item for XAI within, if it's not already.”
DiRico: Lack of federal weather oversight invites unaccountable foreign operations
“If we don't have access to weather modification technology, If we don't regulate this at a federal level and ensure that there's accountability and attribution for these activities, then other people, other nation states could be conducting weather mod in the …”
Depue: Meta may eventually shift to releasing closed flagship AI models
“I w it wouldn't surprise me if they go kind of the Google route where like they are still, they still do open source. They still have the llama brand, but it isn't like their flagship thing where they start doing, whether it's for internal products or it's, th…”
Gallagher: US military deterrent and economic pressure can eliminate Iran's nuclear program
“This is the first time in a long time, really since our, the invasion of Iraq, that we've combined maximum economic pressure With a credible military deterrent. And so I do think it gives us a chance to effectively eliminate their nuclear program.”
Huberman: MDMA will ultimately receive FDA approval for PTSD
“So I think ultimately it will be approved.”
Tan: Platform neutrality could enable hundreds of thousands of 10-person $1B companies
“We actually need the platforms to allow other people to enter, but if we do that, we can actually have tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of companies, each of which can get to a billion dollars net revenue each, you know. And like, you could do it pro…”
Hotz: Robotaxis will be a scooter-style capital race to the bottom
“Self-driving cars look like scooters. The only thing that it's going to take to roll out big fleets of self-driving cars is capital, right? It's just strictly a capital market... So self-driving cars are going to be this awesome race to the bottom, right? It's…”
Hotz: Shift to diffusion AI models will erode centralized cloud moats
“With AI, I think there's going to be a much less of a moat. Especially when you look at the move from autoregression to diffusion. So autoregression can run in large batch sizes. When you run ChatGPT, you're running with a whole bunch of other people on that s…”
Huberman: Neuralink will solve paralysis
“I fully believe that Neuralink is going to solve paralysis. I really do. I'm not saying that cause we're on exits. I know the head neurosurgeon there, they're well on their way.”
Platform neutrality could enable hundreds of thousands of 10-person $1B companies
“If we do that, we can actually have tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of companies, each of which can get to a billion dollars net revenue, you know and like you could do it probably with 10 people, right?”
Asparouhov: Starlink Revenue Will Pass NASA's Budget Within Two Years
“Starlink's total top line revenue is going to be passing the NASA budget in the next year or two.”
Douglas: Generalist models will obsolete specialized fine-tuned models
“I really do think that similar to how we saw with large pre-trained models before with small fine-tuned models made it like, had gains over the sort of GPT-II era, but then were obsoleted by GPT-IV being generally good at everything. I think, to be honest, you…”
Dixon: AI agents will autonomously exchange blockchain micropayments within two years
“You imagine a world, which I think we're headed to pretty soon, in a couple of years, we have all these different AI agents running around... And then you sort of imagine other agents coming along and negotiating and, you know, pennies getting transferred back…”
Armstrong: Majority of Global Payments Will Run on Crypto Rails
“Crypto's gonna update the entire financial system globally, and, like, the majority of all payments will run on these crypto rails.”
Armstrong: US Is on the Cusp of Passing Stablecoin Legislation
“And so we now have the most pro crypto Congress that we've ever seen. And we're on the cusp of getting stable coin and fair and market structure legislation passed.”
Armstrong: Most traditional securities will be tokenized on-chain within five years
“So I actually think, like, most traditional securities are going to get tokenized on chain in the next five years.”
Dixon: AI Agents Will Conduct Automated Blockchain Micropayments Within Years
“So like watch MCP I would expect would have down the road a payment standard, right? And AI agents. So you imagine a world, which I think we're headed to pretty soon in a couple of years, we have all these different AI agents running around... And pennies gett…”
Armstrong: Most traditional securities will tokenize on-chain within five years
“So I actually think like most traditional securities are going to get tokenized on chain in the next five years.”
Romero: Every consumer and fintech app will have built-in wallets by 2029
“And basically I think over the next three or four years, like every app whether it's like a, You know, kind of fintech app or consumer app will have built in wallets. They probably will use stable coins.”
Mochida: A Katrina-Level Storm in Florida Will Bankrupt Property Insurers
“But when the next Hurricane Katrina happens in, you know, Florida, for example, then insurance is just going to be insolvent in many ways.”
A Katrina-Scale Hurricane Hitting Florida Will Trigger Mass Insurer Insolvency
“But when a next Hurricane Katrina happens in, you know, Florida, for example, then insurance is just going to be insolvent in many ways.”
Tan: Startups will reach $100M ARR with 10 people in next few years
“Now, actually you can go from like zero to a hundred mil ARR with like 10 people. We're about to see that in the next few years. Like I think it's already been happening.”
Sankar: Enforcing commercial defense purchasing will build deterrence by 2027
“And I think having the administration say, look, this is statute and we agree with it and we're going to enforce it is, is how we're going to field a huge amount of deterrence between now and 20, 27. You know, there's not a lot of developmental things you can …”
Asparouhov: US can put boots on the Moon during Trump presidency
“Like, I actually think with a concerted concentrated effort, I think we can get boots on the moon again before, you know, Trump is out of office.”
Langtry Predicts Magnetic Fusion Will Achieve Net Energy By 2029
“There's a chance that one or multiple magnetic confinement fusion companies are going to cross Q greater than one during this administration.”
Mehr: Golden Dome will be 7% of DoD budget in 2-3 years
“What I've heard last is it's going to be seven percent of the DoD budget in the next two, three years, right? Once it becomes programmatic.”
Startups can win horizontal AI because big tech is too conservative
“I actually think the horizontal, like, experiences are addressable by startups now, because I think the big tech companies are just going to be too conservative.”
Will Brown: Nobody will run Meta's giant model for daily tasks
“When Meta releases this behemoth model, I don't think anyone's really gonna run behemoth. For like their day to day stuff. It's just probably not gonna be worth it.”
Will Brown: Effective agentic AI will work well on small models
“That's kind of like my bet is like, people are going to really want to train models to be agents. And I think you can get that to work well with a pretty small model.”
Means: Reorienting US healthcare economic incentives will require a 12-year strategy
“I personally think we need to think about it as a 12 year strategy. We're not going to reorient the incentives of the largest industry in America, the fastest growing industry in America, because we're getting sick, the most employed industry in America. We're…”
Means: Both parties will compete over who is more MAHA in 2028
“If those voters can help Republicans, which is my hope in the midterms, I think you have 2028 where both sides are basically arguing who's more maha, which I think is a positive thing.”
Groom: General-purpose robotics will likely follow a 15-year development arc
“There's fundamental research breakthroughs that, that we need to make, and much like self-driving had a, it's what, like a 15 year arc at this point, there is a very high likelihood that robotics is the same way.”
Torenberg predicts a group chat app will replace Twitter for fast discourse
“I think that in the next five years, like someone is going to build a group chat social network where every day where you guys cover the current thing every day. But Twitter is too slow in the way that like Twitter sort of obsoleted the New York, the tradition…”
Ginn: GPU proliferation has reached escape velocity beyond US government control
“We think GPUs are gonna be everywhere and kind of has reached out escape velocity. There's not really much the U S government can do about it at this point.”
Gedmark: First nation to reach lunar south pole ice will own it
“And whoever gets there first and really decides we're going to actually We're not just going to plant a flag. We're going to apply. We're going to put down a fence base and we're going to say this is our lunar property. Like whoever does at first they there's,…”
Aravind Srinivas: Frontier AI Model Leads Will Last Only a Few Weeks
“My, our belief is that nobody's gonna have a lead in them having the best AI model for more than a few weeks.”
Mohnot: US regulations prevent AI from revolutionizing credit underwriting
“So anyway, I think it can be used and can be super useful, but because of those regulatory bound like guidelines, I'm not sure it's going to like be a step change in underwriting.”
Hammond: Abruptly resetting global trade imbalances will crash stocks and real estate
“If you do this all at once, what that means is the entire floor will fall out of the stock market and the real estate market. And, you know, with huge cascading effects through emerging calls.”