The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 5,804 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 130 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Steinberger: Users will stop subscribing to SaaS startups in favor of bespoke agent software
“You don't subscribe to random startups anymore that, that build like this common subset of what you need. You just have your own hyper-personalized software that solves exactly your problem. And it's also free.”
Chinese Vice-Premier: China seeks no trade surplus, wants to be world's market
“We never seek trade surplus. On top of being the world's factory, we hope to be the world's market, too.”
Ben Affleck doubts AI will ever generate whole movies or meaningful writing
“I actually don't think it's very likely that it can, it's going to be able to write anything meaningful, or, and in particular, That it's going to be making movies like from whole cloth, like Tilly Norwood, like that's bullshit. I don't think that's going to h…”
Thinking Machines terminates CTO Barrett Zoff due to alleged unethical conduct
“Breaking Thinking Machines has terminated its CTO, Barrett Zoff, due to unethical conduct.”
Hayes: David Solomon Was Told to Shut Down Marcus or Resign
“DJ D Sol was told to shut down Marcus and Consumer, or get out of the job. So he cut all of Marcus except for savings.”
Musk says xAI will exceed all combined AI compute in five years
“Elon Musk says that XAI will have more AI compute than everyone else combined in less than five years.”
Baker: Space data centers will be the world's most important development
“I think the most important thing that's going to happen in the world in the next Three to four years is data centers in space.”
Baker: Cooling space data centers is virtually free via dark-side radiators
“In space, cooling is free. You just put a radiator on the dark side of the satellite, and it's as close to absolute zero as you can get. So all that goes away, and that is a vast amount of cost.”
Saudi Arabia expands tech investment agreements from $600B to $1T
“And the agreement that we are signing today and tomorrow, we're going to announce that we are going to increase that, that's six hundred billion to almost one trillion dollars.”
Hays: Steam has won the hardware war, obsoleting Xbox and Apple VR
“Steam has won. There's no reason to get an Xbox. There's no reason to get an Apple VR headset. They all run on Linux. It's the ultimate computer.”
Sarah Friar says federal backstops reduce financing costs for frontier AI chips
“The backstop, the guarantee that allows the financing to happen. That can really drop the cost of the financing, but also increase the loan to value, so the amount of debt that you can take on top of an equity portion for some federal backstop for chip investm…”
Sam Altman predicts US government becomes insurer of last resort for AI
“At some level, when something gets sufficiently huge, whether or not they are on paper, the federal government is kind of the insurer of last resort. As we've seen in various financial crises and insurance companies screwing things up. So, I guess, given the m…”
Tyler Hogge claims OpenAI seeks government guarantees to appease private AI lenders
“When I hear these comments from Sarah Fryer, what I'm hearing is we have a bunch of lenders that would happily finance this if there's a government guarantee that they won't lose money, and that's very different.”
Gurman: Apple leadership views its initial AI rollout as a disaster
“I think they recognize that it's been a disaster. I mean, still the biggest thing to me is they were completely caught off guard by, ah, ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, back at the end of 22, into twenty-twenty-three”
Gurman: Apple to release Gemini-powered Siri revamp in spring 2026
“The big AI thing for Apple is the revamped Siri coming out in the spring. They're using a Google Gemini model to power it, which I think is going to make it pretty top tier.”
Gurman: Anthropic demanded $1B+ in year one to power Siri
“Anthropic wanted multiples of billions. I believe starting in a billion in year one and doubling every year thereafter, at least for the next three years.”
Yan: Day-one VC insiders permanently scar a protocol's credible neutrality
“If there are insiders from day one, it doesn't matter how much dispersion of supply, mindshare, talent, et cetera. There is the sort of like the big bang moment will always be there and will always sort of like a scar on the record of the thing.”
Hays: OpenAI could swap ChatGPT's model for Claude and retain users
“OpenAI could swap out the underlying model,
And still accrue the vast majority of value.
So, hypothetically, you could have ChatGPT, chat.com, powered not by GPT-Five, but instead powered by Gemini or Claude, and still see positive user growth, monetization, b…”
Palmer Luckey says starting high-risk startups after having children is irresponsible
“Once you have a family, you have a sort of fiduciary duty to your family to maximize their quality of life. There's no life hack that says that you're allowed to degrade the quality of your child's childhood because daddy wanted to have that grind set mindset,…”
Microsoft's $22B Army augmented reality contract vehicle has moved to Anduril
“Who would have bet that eight years later, that Microsoft contract, that twenty-two billion dollar contract vehicle for the architecture of the Army's AR future would move over to Anduril, that we would be launching something like Eagle Eye”
GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen calls the Meta Quest a joke
“When I think about the MetaQuest, I mean, it's a joke.”
Cohen predicts computers and AI will go after humans soon
“At some point, the computers are going after the humans, and I don't think it's that far away.”
Salesforce Research invented AI prompt engineering, claims Marc Benioff
“We invented prompt engineering, the first prompt right here at Salesforce Research, commercialized by others, of course.”
Benioff claims Salesforce sold cybersecurity company Wiz to Google
“You know, we just sold a company to Google, which is Wiz, the security company.”
Ohanian: Google is terrible at product innovation and not a threat
“Even if, you know, the Googles of the world launch some janky try on experience, like we know those companies are just terrible at innovating product and aren't really a threat.”
Skilled workers will become more valuable as AI automates operational tasks.
“What does the business of the future look like? Actually, the interesting thing is workers become more valuable, like actually trained workers become more valuable. This is exactly the opposite of what people are saying, but it's true. The person at the top is…”
Palantir is the only real German-linked tech company created since SAP.
“The most important Germanic company. I hope someone from Germany is listening to this Compte aus Palo Alto is Peter Thiel und ich. It's like the only German company since SAP that's real. They won't listen to us.”
Karp: Traditional SaaS models trick clients into parasitic lock-in
“You would never build a software downstream from value creation. It's all basically, how do I make the client feel like they're getting laid when they're getting fucked? That's the whole way you build a software business and our business.”
Karp: Palantir is the only real Germanic company built since SAP
“The most important Germanic company, I hope someone from Germany is listening to this kommt aus Palo Alto. It's Peter Thiel und ich. It's like the only German company since SAP that's real.”
Dr. Drew: Microdosing and ayahuasca categorically cause severe psychiatric problems
“The AI world is populated by people that microdose on acid and do ayahuasca, which I tell you, it categorically causes severe psychiatric problems. I've seen it my entire career.”
Dr. Drew: Legacy late-night TV hosts will all face cancellation
“So when Colbert gets Gets fired for losing forty million dollars a year. I just looked at that and I go, well, of course. That's gonna happen to all of them. This is just not a model.”
Cuban says government converting Intel grant to equity is awful
“The fact that it's a grant that they're converting, I think is awful, because it was meant to be a grant, and that was the deal the United States of America made, and now we're going back on the paper that we signed as a country.”
Cuban: Trump executes policies Democrats were not smart enough to do
“I am giving Donald Trump all his flowers because he is doing things in a way that the Democrats aren't smart enough to figure out to have done themselves.”
Cuban: Consumers won't abandon misleading AI because users are primed for misinformation
“I wouldn't agree with that, Jordy, because I think people are primed for misinformation these days. You see it in healthcare continuously. You know, you saw it with COVID vaccines. People on their deathbed say, I wish I had taken the vaccine, you know, and you…”
Cuban: AI is merely statistical and will not become smart for a long time
“Particularly because AI is not smart. Right. AI is just statistical right now. And I'm of the mindset that that's not going to change for a long time.”
Cuban: Fearless Student AI Prompters Have More Skill Than Corporate Staff
“Kids coming out of school today that are fearless in the questions they ask and the follow-ups and their ability to prompt, they have more skill than everybody in every major corporation with under a thousand employees.”
Cuban: Trump is executing Bernie Sanders-style economic policies better than Democrats
“He's turned into Bernie Sanders. He literally has, you know, only he's a better salesperson. This is fantastic. I give him credit though. I'm not knocking him, right? I am giving Donald Trump all his flowers because he is doing things in a way that the Democra…”
Andreessen: Chinese Open-Source AI Releases Are Net Positive for the World
“I think it's been net positive for the world that China has been so enthusiastic about open source AI coming out of China which has been great.”
Andreessen: US AI Models Embed Constraints From a Specific Demographic
“I can tell you, the American models have all kinds of constraints also. Right, implemented, you know, usually by a very specific kind of person in a very specific location in the US.”
Andreessen: Training AI Is Legally Distinct From Copying
“The counter argument to that, which, you know, which we believe is, well, it's not copying, right? There's a distinction between training and copying, just like in the real world, there's a distinction between reading a book and copying the book, you know, as …”
Andreessen: Regulatory Victory Laps Over Blocked Mergers Exhibit Survivorship Bias
“I mean, it's kind of taking a victory lap was very disconcerting. And for exactly the reason you said, which is survivorship bias. Right. Which is you pick the one that worked out and then, you know, it's the airplane, the red dots, the airplane, you know, you…”
Coogan: METR Study Found AI Coding Tools Made Developers 19% Slower
“The meter team did these evaluations where they ran a randomized control trial to see how much AI coding tools speed up open source developers, and what they found was that developers said that they expected products like cursor and windsurf to improve them by…”
Shkreli: Mike Bloomberg could be worth $400B-$500B via private equity
“He's taken the Bloomberg dividends and pumped it into a family office that basically Carlisle and all these guys, you know, the Warburg Pincus, all the private equity guys like KKR, They go to him first, and he tosses in, like, five hundred million in each of …”
Shkreli: Quantum computing offers no speedup over classical machines except Shor's algorithm
“The problem is what people don't understand is there are no other algorithms other than Shor's that get you that amazing speed up. So you're better off using the machines we have now. There's no payoff even possible in the future unless we have a new breakthro…”
Shkreli: Quantum computing stocks are worthless shorts with no future market
“The third avenue is of course quantum, and I've spent a lot of time and money on, on quantum computing, and it's just, these stocks are shorts. They're worthless. You know, they, they'll, they'll never be a market for quantum computing.”
Thompson: Intel Is a Failed Company Undone by Its Own Culture
“So there's a real national security element here, and it's just, it's a really tough situation, because Intel is a failed company at this point, and they're, and the reason the failure is so total is because The aspects that drive their failure are the same th…”