The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 130 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 130 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hays: Apple will build proprietary smart glasses rather than partner for eyewear
“My expectation, my uninformed
expectation is that Apple will just make Apple glasses, right?
They will probably, I, it's hard to see them taking the route at least early on of partnering and allowing another company to influence the design language”
AMP will bring several billion dollars of compute online in 2026
“And by the end of this year, I think we'll have, you know, several billion dollars of compute coming online.”
Kim: Nvidia and hyperscalers won't switch to Arm's standalone server CPUs
“I don't really expect the major hyperscalers like Amazon to switch to ARM's, you know product offering. They have their own. And same with NVIDIA. They have their own ARM CPU that they're gonna incorporate and sell.”
Coogan: OpenAI will roll video generation into ChatGPT
“Obviously, this is not the end of video creation for OpenAI. This will be rolled into ChatGPT, I imagine.”
Coogan: Routine SpaceX Starship lunar cargo flights are 3-5 years away
“Starship needs to be refueling in orbit, landing on the moon with and without crews, because you're probably going to need some humans up there, some robots and we need to start routine cargo flights to the moon. So this is straight up like three to five years…”
Coogan predicts routine Starship lunar cargo flights are 3-5 years away
“Starship needs to be refueling in orbit, landing on the moon with and without crews, because you're probably going to need some humans up there, some robots and we need to start routine cargo flights to the moon. So this is straight up, like, three to five yea…”
Epstein: Venezuela Produces Under 1M Barrels Daily and Cannot Scale Fast
“Venezuela is less than a million. It's just, I mean, it's beyond crazy. It's just impossible. It's not like Venezuela has the ability to just increase their oil production by any significant amount in the near future.”
Patel: Nvidia's pre-fill CPX chip will release later in 2026
“They launched this thing called CPX, which is a chip made for pre-fill with, you know, prompt processing, creating a KV cache, and also good at, like, video generation and image generation. And that's coming out later this year.”
Patel: Anthropic separates inference and training across different chip clusters
“You know, you do your inference on one set of chips and you do your training on another set of chips. So like, Anthropic does this.”
Hays: Apple will block iMessage data portability to Google's Gemini
“I have zero faith that there will be any portability. And the reason for that is Apple's paying Google to effectively, yeah, white label the model, leverage Gemini in the next version of Apple intelligence. And they're just gonna be focused on integrating it w…”
Ohanian: Stoke Space's First Launch Will Be at Cape Canaveral This Summer
“And the first launch is going to be Cape Canaveral this summer.”
Hays: Odds of Perplexity acquiring Chrome are closer to zero than 1%
“I would put the odds of this deal happening closer to zero percent than one percent.”
Dixon predicts Model Context Protocol will eventually add a payment standard
“MCP, I would expect, would have, down the road, a payment standard, right?”
Asparouhov: US will never allow airlines to buy Chinese jetliners
“It's like definitely not in the United States ever. There's no way that like the United States is ever letting United States airline buy like a Chinese, you know, sort of jetliner.”
Feldmann: Autonomous drilling rigs will still need on-site personnel for five years
“We're never gonna get to a point where you don't need at least someone on site, at least not over the next five years, because you need a flat surface to drill on.”
Gedmark: Astranis will likely use orbital transfer vehicles with Starship
“Well, it'll, it will I believe it is, is heavily Leo optimized. So using it, we will most likely, it's not strictly necessary. We don't have to do this, but we will most likely want to use one of these orbital transfer vehicles.”
Abraham: 24/7 Retail Stock Trading Is Inevitable and Approaching
“I mean, generally speaking, I think it's definitely coming. Like, it will also come to public at some point.”
Hudson: Newegg uses multi-touch attribution to pay both creators and Honey
“Newegg is using a multi-touch attribution system in any click system from company Howell, and it is effectively, like, it's Newegg uses it so that it can pay both the creator upstream and Honey.”
Byers: 2021 venture capital vintage will be historically poor
“Like that vintage is going to be historically shitty.”
Mignano: Spotify's next step is adding non-podcast video content
“You have to imagine the next step is you start to see other types of video content on the platform. And even if they can start chipping away a few market share percentage points here and there, YouTube's catalog, that's a big deal for Spotify.”
Coogan: Western AI Labs Will Port DeepSeek's Optimizations Into Their Models
“It's open source. The paper's out there. So that will get ported back to Llama, to OpenAI, to Anthropic, but I haven't seen that.”
Coogan: SoftBank will likely sell part of Arm stake to fund Stargate
“SoftBank will likely have to sell off a chunk of its stake in the company to fund Stargate. We think investors are largely missing this point and mistakenly view this announcement as materially incrementally good news.”
Coogan: Stargate Campuses Will Be Built for Distributed AI Training
“Even more impressive, all these data center campuses will be, will continue to be built out with the aim of distributed training.”
Hays: Apple will not acquire Sonos
“I think they're not going to get bought by Apple because Apple could be like, well, why don't we spend a billion dollars developing a better speaker and sell it through our thousands of stores?”
Coogan: Brad Jacobs passed on an oil and gas rollup over ESG
“He surveyed all the different industries for AI resistance and also just economic opportunity. The one that he wanted to go with was oil and gas, but he couldn't, but the ESG thing was too overbearing.”
Coogan: Hustlers University demotes non-paying members to wins-only channel
“If you don't pay your bill, they don't kick you out entirely. They just demote you to a status where you can only see the wins channel. So you're only seeing other dudes being like, made my first million, made my first 100,000.”
Jeff Bezos's 10,000-Year Clock Project Will Probably Succeed Within 20 Years
“It'll probably work, but in the next 20 years, you know, it just takes time, and then it'll just be this thing that people go visit.”
Hayes: Jake Paul will become a billionaire from boxing fairly quickly
“So yeah, he, his Pete, like Jake Paul will actually be a billionaire just from box fairly quickly, simply because he's going to do a handful more fights. I imagine then he needs about a two X from there and he'll be able to go, but.”
Google Gemini uses SynthID detection to identify origins of AI-generated images
“If you put the photo into Gemini Gemini will tell you, if you say, is this AI, Gemini will tell you, yes, according to the SynthID water molecule detection tool, this image was generated in whole or in part with Google AI.”
Feldmann: Durin aims to build thousands of automated drill rigs by 2031
“We are we're teaching SpaceXers how to drill and drillers how to participate in a high functional, high functioning engineering organization. And so I think you gotta do both. If you're trying to build a large organization and manufacture thousands of these ri…”
David Senra: Ken Griffin is building history's most expensive house in Palm Beach
“He's building, I think, what's going to be the most expensive house in history in Palm Beach.”
Power: Hadrian will expand to allied countries in a year or two
“So we have so much work to do here in the US that we'd love to support our allied partners in Europe and the, you know, the Middle East and countries like Japan re-industrialize as well. And they often have the same kind of core skilled labor problem. We've go…”