The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 813 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 110 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Coogan: Software and interactive games will become the next meme format
“And I think the next version of this is like software as a meme. S-A-A-M, something like that.”
Kim: Nvidia's US-China regulatory approvals will drive billions in H200 orders
“And one thing that kind of went under the radar, Jensen literally said at GTC they got license approvals on both the U.S. And China side, so we're gonna see billions of dollars of H 200 orders.”
Kim: The rise of AI agents will drive massive server CPU demand
“AI agents need more CPUs. The ARM CEO talked about four times more CPU quarter cores versus last year's kind of AI infrastructure model. So we're gonna see this massive Demand for CPUs that people aren't really understanding it. Because AI agents, the whole th…”
Kim: Elon Musk will pitch space-based GPU satellites for SpaceX IPO
“I think Elon's pitch with the SpaceX IPO, and we'll see it in the coming months, is the AI compute, it's gonna be so, there's gonna be so much demand over the next five, 10 years, that you're gonna have to use these SpaceX satellites that have GPUs in them. To…”
Kim: AI chatbots threatening search positions Meta better than Google
“Like, no one's going to replace better digital ad position. I mean, like, I would even say in the AI world, they're even better positioned, because Google might lose digital ad share to AI chatbots, their search position in the future. So, like, no one's going…”
Jensen Huang: Software developers will write architectures instead of code
“In the future, in the past, we code. In the future, we're gonna write Ideas, architectures, specifications. We're going to organize teams. We're going to help them define how to evaluate the definition of good versus bad.”
Cuban: AI Agents Using Crypto Wallet Payments Will Cause Widespread Scams
“You know, to make it so that, you know, just give me your wallet and that's, you know, it's going to end up being a scam and a lot of people are going to get ripped off there.”
Cuban: Adversarial graffiti will inevitably confuse vision-based self-driving systems
“There's somebody somewhere trying to figure out how to fuck up self-driving mode, right? Because it's just taking video input, and you know, what, it could be some pattern, and all of a sudden you're seeing this pattern on medians, or, you know, overlaid on st…”
Jensen Huang: Nvidia Will Build Orbital Data Centers in Space
“In the future, we'll also build data centers. In the, in space. Obviously, very complicated to do so. We have, we're working with our partners on a new computer called Vera Rubin Space One, and it's going to go out to space and start data centers out, out in s…”
Hays: Regulatory frustration will drive more patients to pursue DIY biotech
“That level of frustration will eventually drive more individuals, I think to do this. Right. And so there's definitely, definitely some like safety, there's huge safety concerns. There's ethical concerns. There's, these are things that we have to work through,…”
Human Labor Will Become Increasingly Valuable Until Super AGI
“Until we get super AGI. Humans are valuable, and they are going to become more and more valuable because they will be the long pole in the tent to progress, and that progress is going to accelerate and get faster and more, you know, more robust, except If you'…”
Karp: Low-value enterprise SaaS companies will rapidly fail
“Now, if that's how your products actually are, you are, now it's you are going to get fucked. Like, and this is going to happen so quickly.”
Karp: Either the US or China will decide the AI world order
“This is a have-have-not world. It's going to be either us or them basically deciding the world order. Because, like, these other countries, and maybe India will get involved, maybe the Arab, non-Arab, Middle East, but currently on the trajectory we're on now, …”
Karp: Software value will flow to differentiated specific solutions over generalizable tools
“Our products augment that, which makes it, ah, you know, augments the differentiated specific over the generalizable, and that's where literally all the value's gonna go, and it's gonna be like a waterfall, and that, that's the problem with a lot of software c…”
Epstein: Suspending the Jones Act would lower California fuel prices
“And if you suspend the Jones act, then you can get more efficient transportation, which means we can at least have lower prices here. And we can have less of a price shock”
Thompson: Sovereign Militaries Will Inevitably Seize Control of Frontier AI
“If AI is what it is, The people with guns are going to want to have a say. Whether that be domestically, whether that be internationally, that might be in the context of the U.S. Government just taking it, trying to kill your company because they feel you're n…”
Gurley: Heavy US Regulation Could Hand Global AI Market to China
“If we get super heavy on U.S. Regulation, you may find there's a fence around the U.S. And China serves the rest of the world.”
Shah: Physical robotics deployment lags LLM diffusion by 24 to 36 months
“I think robots are probably, like, 24 to 36 months behind other forms of LLMs that are, you know, just diffusing through society”
Shah: Displaced white-collar workers will severely pressure blue-collar and gig labor markets
“Those five percent, if there aren't white collar jobs for them to relocate into, then they're going to have to move into the gig economy and the blue collar labor force. And so that puts pressure on the entire labor market not just the white collar one.”
Shah: Consumers will use AI agents for autonomous purchases within six months
“You just, and no one's really doing this yet, but it's going to happen, I think, you know, in the next six months. Is just tell your agent, you know, tell Gemini, tell ChatGPT, go buy these things, it has your credit card, and now that world that they were des…”
Shah: IT outsourcers will see a short-term AI bump before structural decline
“And so I think those businesses are likely going to be in a lot of trouble over the medium term, but they probably will have a big bump from people really putting that AI into their organizations first, and so it's a bit of a tricky timeline there.”
Shah: Anthropic will likely IPO in the next 3 to 6 months
“I have a strong suspicion that Anthropic is going to go, you know, in the next three to six months. They just have so much momentum and there's a lot of value being first.”
Shah: Unaddressed AI labor displacement will cause an economic crisis, slowing progress
“AI progress will slow down because we'll have an economic crisis, and we're not going to be able to finance nearly as much of it as we otherwise would.”
Luckey predicts all banks must adopt stablecoin settlement to remain competitive
“Probably, but I think most of the forward looking companies that would value that network effect, that one in particular see, see, see that in the next few years, probably all banks are going to be forced to adopt this to be competitive.”
Hardware engineers, not software developers, will benefit most from AI coding tools
“The biggest beneficiaries of vibe coding are going to be the hardware nerds like me. It's going to be the shape rotators not the word cells. Everyone's focused on, on, on, on how the word cells are going to be wiped out by AI, but for the shape rotators, it's …”
McCormick: Frontier AI will settle into an oligopoly among 3-4 labs
“A lot of the VC firms are getting in multiple companies because they don't think it's going to be winner-take-all anymore. They think it's going to be much more oligopolistic for the long term, and there will be competition between the major three or four labs…”
McCormick: AI labs will become profitable hyperscalers like cloud
“It seems like the labs will Turn into sort of new hyperscalers. There will be you know, increased competition, but still very, very good businesses a la cloud.”
Huberman: Retatrutide will become a trillion-dollar drug
“This is going to be a trillion dollar drug, trillion dollar, but people are already taking it.”
Coogan: AI agents will damage SaaS companies relying on switching-cost moats
“At the same time, the coding model is as remarkable as they are. They'll reshuffle the economics of tech. We're seeing this with the SaaSpocalypse. Certain companies will be stronger beneficiaries of AI. Others will be Damaged because maybe their only moat was…”
Four billion people will have AI personal assistants, Marszalek predicts
“We believe that you will have four billion people having personal assistants that should play the role of kind of a chief of staff for your entire life with great contacts being proactive, getting things done for you rather than just chatting.”
Thornton: China will out-manufacture the US on identical drones and missiles
“If the US is manufacturing a quadcopter and China's manufacturing the same quadcopter, if we're making a cruise missile and they're making the same cruise missile, they will out-manufacture us.”
Thornton predicts future forces will fight via decentralized multi-system kill webs
“The future for structure looks a lot more like a, it's kind of a buzzwordy term, but like almost like a kill web of hundreds of different systems, each doing some element of sensing communications and shooting such that your force is kind of fighting from ever…”
Thornton predicts US-China war would end in days via cyberattacks
“Look, I mean, unfortunately in a modern day, I think a hot war would end relatively quickly. Like you're talking about a very decisive outcome when you think about cyber effects and how quickly infrastructure in both countries would shut down. When you think a…”
Hays: The real SaaS crash won't begin until frontier AI labs IPO
“I think the real Sasspocalypse might not start until you have some of the labs public, and people can actually really rotate out of software fully and say, I don't want to own this thing that I don't fully understand how AI is going to impact it when I could o…”
Bishop: Trump will delay $20 billion Taiwan arms sale until Xi meeting
“Over the weekend, you know, we saw, I think on Friday, the Financial Times reported, yes, there's a twenty billion dollar package in the works and it's something the Chinese don't want to have happen, and they have threatened to postpone or cancel Trump's visi…”
O'Laughlin: SaaS companies will become mere backend hooks for AI agents
“All the SaaS companies are going to essentially just become hooks for all the crap they've built on top of it.”
O'Laughlin: Amazon will spend $200B in CapEx by year-end
“I think at the end of the year, they're gonna be like, yeah, they spent two hundred billion.”
O'Laughlin: Amazon's gigawatt project is on track while competitors face delays
“Every other gigawatt project is essentially delayed and they're going to be like ish on time.”
O'Laughlin: Amazon will run out of Trainium and spend heavily on Nvidia
“I think they're gonna run out of Tranium, and the answer is, like, what's the biggest amount of supply chain that's, like, locked up? It's NVIDIA.”
Altman: Agent Tools Will Matter More Than Intelligence Near-Term
“The agents will keep getting better, so you'll keep working at the maximum of your management bandwidth or cognitive ability to keep track of all the stuff and the tools to make that easy to do will matter. I think more than intelligence for a little while, be…”
Altman: AI could cause measured GDP to decline while quality of life rises
“The way we measure GDP now could start going down, even though quality of life goes way up. And we don't have a lot of practice with things like that, but the massively deflationary.”
Hays: Effectively zero percent chance OpenAI wins the Super Bowl ad battle
“And there is zero, I will go out now and say, I would say there's effectively a zero percent chance that OpenAI can win the Super Bowl this year.”
Patel: Semiconductor fab capacity will become the primary AI bottleneck in 2027
“The baton got passed from semiconductor shortages in 23 to power and data centers in 24, 25. 26, we're still, we're swinging the pendulum, but it will fully beat semiconductors again in 27, right?”
Patel: AI startup revenue will surpass $100B by year-end
“How many people even believe by the end of the year, AI startup revenue is over a hundred billion dollars? I think that's an insane statement for a lot of people, but that's what it's gonna be, right?”
Schlicht: AI bots will vent to each other and entertain humans
“Bots will live this parallel life where they work for you, but they vent with each other, and they hang out with each other, and this creates massive, ah, like, randomness, and some of that is gonna be very entertaining for both bots and for humans to consume.”
Schlicht: AI agent social networks will be an alternate reality by 2028
“This is a very basic version with the technology available today of what's actually possible, and if you fast forward one year, two years there's, this is an alternate reality, and you don't have to put a headset on to do it, and it's going 2407. This is just …”
Coogan: World models will compete directly with Roblox and Fortnite long term
“Definitely competitive in the long term. In the medium term, like, super good for prototyping and communication, and this is a key flow to, okay, you have an idea, and you don't just wanna You know, generate a basic image of the game that you're trying to buil…”