The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 130 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 130 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Logan Bartlett predicts tariff-induced corporate paralysis will trigger a US recession
“I think people are going to be stuck in this state of paralysis a little bit of like, what do we actually do right now? And inherently, I think that becomes self-fulfilling in the way that it's going to lead to a recession for us. I hope, again, I hope I'm wro…”
Perret: Retail consumer stablecoin payments remain 10 to 15 years away
“No, one's going to walk into a Starbucks and buy a coffee with a stable coin. Certainly not for any amount of time that I can think about, you know, maybe, maybe 1015 years in the future.”
Anduril leadership frequently warns investors about fake primary allocations
“We've been long time and real investors and they have tweeted a ton about fake allocations in their primary rounds being marketed to investors.”
Sean Frank: Solo Brands will sell Chubbies and be taken private
“So, you know, they will sell chubbies that like when you break out the finances like that, that's They're looking for someone to buy that asset to pay down some of this debt, and then they're just to take private. It is just some, somebody will swoop in.”
Frank: Apple will make $40B from ad data exchange in two years
“They will get probably forty billion dollars in the next two years from just ad data exchange. I think that's tracking.”
Maguire: Only one or two new defense startups per year win programs of record
“Only one or two of you a year are going to do that.
And it's going to be like of new companies and it's really hard.
and it takes both having great tech and great, you know, government BD.
And so don't under invest it in either of those.”
Doricko: Rainmaker supplies water more cheaply than desalination
“We can bring water more cost-effectively than even desalination.”
Coogan Predicts General Catalyst Will Go Public
“I think there's going to be a general catalyst going public.”
Coogan: 2028 election will pit JD Vance against AOC or Buttigieg
“And so my bet that I would put on Polymarket right now is that The twenty-twenty-eight election is between JD Vance and AOC, or JD Vance and Buttigieg, because AOC and Buttigieg both can actually sit and be real people for several hours, and AOC's done it with…”
Hays: A major stablecoin will undoubtedly blow up in the future
“And so I think that there will undoubtedly be a time in the future where a major stable coin like blows up.”
Hays: Rival frontier AI labs will eventually collaborate to pace development
“Pacing the frontier, collaborating with other labs. I'm oddly optimistic that this will happen. Obviously, you know, there's the Sam and Dario can't even hold hands on stage in that India conference, but AI has made strange bedfellows out of people.”
Coogan: Claude Fable 5.1 achieved highest-ever AI index score
“Fable 5.1 get the highest result ever on the index. The scores also have Opus five, which got 63, and Fable, which got a 62.”
Iovine: Record labels will not launch streaming services anytime soon
“I don't think the labels are going to start streaming services. You know, not in any time short in the next few years anyway.”
Baker: Over 10,000 Employees Bought Shares During the SpaceX IPO
“I think another really underappreciated thing about the SpaceX IPO is that over 10,000 SpaceX employees bought on the IPO.”
Vaynerchuk: China will do $1 trillion in live commerce GMV this year
“China's going to do a trillion in GMV this year and stuff sold.”
US government establishes task force to prevent AI model distillation
“There is new news from Michael Kratzios that the government seems to be taking anthropic and opening eyes messaging around distillation very seriously and is setting up a task force.”
Novak: Arm expects to reach $15 billion in revenue by 2031
“This new move, they're expecting to ramp revenue. To fifteen billion dollars by 2031.”
Marchione: FDA will soon make BPC-157 legal to compound
“I believe the FDA will make it legal to compound soon.”
Coogan: An operational lunar mass driver is 15 to 20 years away
“I put the over under at like, 15 to 20 years, which is about as aggressive as I could get.”
Cosgrove: AGI will make a lunar mass driver viable within 30 years
“I changed, I'm going 30... Well, it's just like, AGI is like basically here, there's no way it's going to take that long. It's like everything will be so cheap.”
Coogan predicts building a lunar mass driver will take 15-20 years
“I put the over under at like 15 to 20 years, which is about as aggressive as I could get.”
Hays: Meta plans stablecoin payments comeback in second half of year
“Mark Zuckerberg's Meta is planning a stablecoin comeback in the second half of this year, eyeing a third party vendor as a key partner to power payments.”
Coogan: Multi-agent orchestrators will double METR autonomous coding benchmark
“Orchestrators, it feels like these are the next, it's the next easy unhobbling that will cause another doubling in the meter software engineering time horizon benchmark.”
Hayes: Startup Flip Introduces Gambling Mechanics Into Consumer Debt
“They're bringing gambling into credit cards, bringing gambling into debt.”
Coogan: SpaceX will achieve fully reusable Starship with rapid turnaround
“He's also predicted fully reusable Starship with rapid turnaround. It's a little too soon to tell he's behind some of the early dates, but you know, in general, that project seems like it's real. It's going to happen.”
DeMuro: Tesla Roadster will not launch anywhere near $200,000
“I don't think the Roadster is going to come anywhere near 200, just based on, we've got a lot of inflation, Elon's missed those, Tesla's missed those price targets before, et cetera.”
Gurman: Apple's 2027 smart glasses will not feature visual displays
“The first version won't have displays, like the older metal Ray-Bans or the base level metal Ray-Bans. Those are coming out in twenty-twenty-seven.”
Gurman: Meta's next-gen display glasses will feature binocular screens
“The current Meta's, they have one screen in them. The second generation version will have displays in, in, in both eyes.”
Salesforce projects reaching $60 billion in annual revenue by fiscal 2030
“This year we're going to do about 43.1 billion in revenue, and we just gave guidance yesterday that we expect to be able to do sixty billion dollars by Fiscal year, 30.”
Coogan: Disney will win AI copyright revenue through the courts
“And I think that they will through the courts, especially because as like big companies, like you're not, so it's not this crazy, oh, there's like a bunch of kids doing random things.”
Coogan: Apple approved a multi-billion dollar 2026 cloud AI model budget
“Apple has already improved, approved a multi-billion dollar budget for two, 2026 for running its own models via the cloud, but plans For that beyond remain, for beyond that remain murky.”
Hotz: Automated flight booking will arrive via APIs, not agentic web browsing
“We're gonna pretty soon have computer use models that are actually capable of going to Delta.com and booking a flight. But then what's actually gonna happen is Delta's gonna partner with whatever company does that, and they're gonna put it behind the stupid th…”
Singer: Autonomous delivery could become default in big cities within two years
“You know, if you're in the big cities, I think, you know, hopefully for us right in the span of a year, maybe two. But you know, I tend to be aggressive on that front, but I think it really depends on, on kind of which markets you're in as that kind of rolls o…”
Handmer: Space-Based Solar Power Will Not Be Beamed to Earth Anytime Soon
“We will obviously have a lot of solar in space, but I think mostly it'll be for powering applications in space. I don't think people are going to be beaming power down from space to the earth anytime, anytime soon.”
Schneider: Industrial Robotics Will Outpace Humanoids Over a Three-Year Horizon
“I think the sort of
The big markets in the, you know, three-year horizon, let's say, are much more on the industrial robotics side.”
Weisenthal: There will be another SPAC boom in his lifetime
“SPACs have come and gone multiple times in their history, so I would never bet against the return of the SPAC. It might take a while. I think, you know, it's like, maybe even like every 15 or 20 years or whatever, but I am confident that in my lifetime, there …”
Will Manidis predicts Sam Bankman-Fried will not serve his full prison sentence
“I will be shocked to see if he serves this whole sentence. He has, like, very strong proof that if you donate enough money to the right people, you can kind of bend the world around you, and I sincerely hope he stays in jail for a very long amount of time.”
Tesla will soon manufacture and deliver the delayed second-generation Roadster
“I'm also extremely bullish on the Tesla roadster second generation. You get them the allocation. Now I think it's going to happen. It's been way delayed, but Elon is on top of the world. The stock's ripping. He, Knows where the regulation is going. I think he'…”
Hays: The US Will Take More Formula 1 Races From Overseas
“Soon we'll, we'll have, we'll take more and more of the races from overseas.”
Future United States Presidents will host their own official podcasts
“The future is the president will have a podcast.”
Coogan: The new hypercar trinity won't beat the AMG ONE's Nürburgring record
“I just love the AMG One, because it's this, I mean, it's destroying your Nurburgring records. Like, I don't think any of the, these new Holy Trinity will come close. I think the Michelin X will wind up being too, too heavy.”
Hays: Apple's iPhone Duo will completely avoid a display crease
“In this video, there is no crease. I'm sure the YouTube tech reviewers will be hunting in all different lighting for creases, but it feels like Apple waited long enough to avoid a crease whatsoever, so you will get no crease.”
Coogan: The Odyssey Will Gross Over $1B, Generating $250M Profit
“The base case here the film will make a little bit over a billion dollars. The cash flow to Universal and Comcast, who are the studio behind this you're looking at two hundred and fifty million dollars in pre-tax lifetime profit.”
Coogan: Meta is probably building a real-money prediction market product
“The fact that they didn't try and acquire Manifold, they tried to acquire Kalshi, sort of signals like, hey, they're probably going the financially incentivized route”
Coogan: Blue Origin Pivots Pad Strategy to Return New Glenn This Year
“To return to flight this year, we're not rebuilding the same pad. We're going straight to a horizontal vertical hybrid con ops. We are, we had already been developing for our nine X four new Glenn launch vehicle using existing infrastructure, skipping a new tr…”